Estimates on inflation in the Eurozone are down, while forecasts on GDP and unemployment improve. This is what emerges from the quarterly survey conducted by the ECB among analysts and economists of companies, banks and private institutions. The survey was published today in the monthly bulletin of the central institute.
The new expectations oninflation speak of a +1,4% in 2013, +1,5% in 2014 and +1,6% in 2015. The data for 2013 and 2015 are 0,1 points lower than those of three months ago, while the estimate compared to 2014 is changed.
As for the GDP, a drop of 0,4% is expected in 2013, which should be followed by a +1% in 2014. The 2013 figure is 0,2 points better than the estimates of three months ago, while that for 2014 improves by 0,1 %.
Finally, the rate unemployment it should settle at 12,1% this year and in 2014, while in 2015 it should drop to 11,6%. The data is respectively 0,2, 0,3 and 0,2 percentage points lower than in the last survey.
Still on the employment front, the ECB notes however that in the second quarter of 2013 the number of employed people decreased by 0,1% on the previous period, marking the eighth consecutive quarterly decline. The unemployment rate, which has been on the rise since the first half of 2011, stood at 12,2%, unchanged from August, at its highest level since records began in 1995. Survey indicators thus improved, but however, they point to further job losses in both manufacturing and services in the third quarter of 2013 and early fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, according to preliminary estimates by Eurostat, in the third quarter of 2013 the GDP of the Eurozone recorded an increase of 0,1% compared to the previous three months, against the +0,3% recorded between April and June. On an annual basis, however, the contraction eased to -0,4%, from -0,6% in the second quarter. The data on cyclical growth is in line with the average expectations of analysts, while that on the annual change is slightly lower.
Looking at the whole European Union of 28, the GDP recorded a +0,2% compared to the immediately preceding period, compared to +0,3% in the second quarter. In the year-on-year comparison, however, the trend returned positive: +0,1%, against -0,2% in the second quarter.
