A match from the Hundred Years War. Won, the one between 1337 and 1453, by the proud transalpines, but also judging the last hundred years of football history, it's not that the English fared any better. On the contrary.
The British who, as ironically pointed out by Time itself, boast so much of having "invented" football only to then win almost nothing at national level (despite having a club championship that is the richest and most prestigious in the world), as soon as they put their nose out of the land of Albion they mark time. At world level almost half a century has passed since the only triumph in a World Cup, "dirtied" by a ghost goal in the final against West Germany. And in any case, not even that time had we left Great Britain, where the World Cup was hosted. In Europe, even worse: zero titles, despite having hosted the '96 edition.
The French cousins did better, who also had to wait to host a European (1984) and a World Cup (1998) to win them, but they also achieved a historic double in 2000 in Belgium and Holland, equaled only by the invincible Spain of recent years.
Not to mention that France, which even boasts of having invented many things and of being a dominant nation in any field of knowledge, has not never focused too much on football, considered more than anything else the umpteenth outlet of national pride, but rarely become a vehicle for large investments, nor enhanced with a professional championship worthy of a large country.
The umpteenth episode of the love/hate relationship between the two countries is on the air today at 18 in Donetsk, Ukraine, in the first match valid for group D of the European football championship. And, across the Channel, there are already those who have thought of inflaming the challenge. To the sound of numbers and predictions. And the Guardian, which has published a curious study, carried out by the prestigious Royal Statistical Society chaired by Dr. Ian McHale, according to which England will overcome the impasse of Capello's resignation and the absence of some great players by finishing at least third, while France, which comes to the competition in great shape and driven by a vintage Benzema, will not even make it past the first round.
“According to Mc Hale, professor of statistics at Salford University, English fans shouldn't be surprised if their team reaches the semi-finals of Euro 2012”, the Guardian article even says, going against the odds of an entire nation, and then he explains: “After running a million computer simulations data suggest England are the third best team in the tournament, behind Spain and Germany, and who will play Ireland in the quarter-finals before losing to the Germans in the semis. France and Italy, meanwhile, are highly unlikely to make it past the group stage".
In reality, France in tonight's match would appear rather favored against an England without Rooney and Lampard, and in any case it would be hard to imagine his elimination in front of Sweden and Ukraine. As well as Italy, which after the good draw against Spain will be enough not to commit nonsense against Croatia and Ireland. Even if it is true that the favorite Netherlands lost in the opening match against Denmark, and risks having a bad time.
In any case, Professor McHale reminds skeptics of his prediction system that his model predicted that Spain would win the 2010 World Cup. We challenge anyone, however, to have thought otherwise when two years ago Del Bosque's national team was unanimously indicated as the final winner. “The math doesn't say that England will definitely reach the semi-final,” explains the teacher, “but it does suggest that fans shouldn't be so pessimistic about their chances. Analysis indicates there is a 68% chance that England will go through and do better than expected".
To the point, almost, of being able to aim for the final victory. Spain is given by bookmakers at 3 against 1, i.e. with an implied probability of winning the European Championships of 25%. Percentage scaled from McHale to 12%, while Hodgson's national team, which is quoted by bookmakers at 14 against 1, would have 10% according to the Royal Statistical Society of the possibility of lifting the Cup on July 1st. Practically the same as Iniesta and his companions.
And the big match tonight? Returning to current events, McHale is unbalanced but not too much. The million possible combinations on the game gave a quite Solomonic outcome in the end: 40% England win, 30% draw, 30% France win. “The simulation generates a random number between 0 and 1. If this number is between zero and 0,4 the computer says England win the match. If it is between 0,41 and 0,70 it means that the match is a draw. And if it is between 0,71 and one France wins. The computer then plays the entire tournament like this from the first group game to the final. Then another tournament begins. And he does it a million times." Like in the Hundred Years War. This time, however, the French prevailed.
