"Hour the europeans they will have to try to avoid the defeat of Ukraine and what remains of European security. It may not be possible, but it is still it is appropriate to try to raise costs as much as possible of a 'victory' for Putin and at the same time isolate Trump". After the shock of having witnessed "one of the greatest diplomatic disasters in modern history", as themeeting the other day in Washington between the Ukrainian president Zelensky and the tenant of the White House, Trump, Stefano Silvestri, former president of the IAI Institute of Geopolitics and expert in military affairs, takes stock with FIRSTonline.
Do you seriously think that Europeans can succeed in uniting, standing together and countering Trump?
“Of course, it may seem impossible given the behavior observed so far. The Europe that isolates Trump may recall that famous headline in the London Times, 'Fog on the Channel – Continent isolated'. It is therefore not a question of hoping for a sort of posthumous triumph of De Gaulle, allergic to anything that was not 'continent', Great Britain first and foremost, but also the USA. It is however essential to demonstrate with facts that we Europeans believe in respecting the law and in the agreements signed. Because this is what it is about, laws and agreements, not personal sympathies, bullying attitudes and institutional as well as human bad education”.
Are you saying that it's about explaining to Trump that he's not in a bar in Texas (with all due respect to Texas) getting into a fistfight with someone he doesn't like? Maybe backed up by his scoundrel friend (Vance) who strikes the first blow? And who can explain that to him? Brussels? Paris? London? Berlin? Certainly not Rome...
“Of course, it may seem that we are appealing to the roar of the mouse. It is legitimate to think so. But I would not overestimate the strength of others. To give just one example because I do not deal with economics and finance, but GDP growth expectations, according to analysts, are lower than expected; behavior, coincidentally, due to the threat of duties that pushes companies to import more goods than expected. Not to mention that the Fed committee has decided to keep interest rates unchanged signaling that it is in no hurry to loosen monetary policy. While the stock market indexes are increasingly closing down. In short, Trump's USA is weaker than that of Bush Jr. and the neoconservatives, the well-known neocons. And those, let's not forget, failed”.
Professor, do you think that in addition to Moscow, Beijing is also popping the champagne for this tragic division of the West?
“I don't know what they think in Beijing, China has accustomed us to millennial silences and seemingly immutable scenarios. Only to suddenly find themselves in the new world that they were creating in the meantime. Like the 'Chinese-ization' of Africa's infrastructure, for example, which happened without anyone (except the Russians and Turks) opposing it. In fact, if I wanted to joke, I'd say that what's happening today makes me think of that film where Sordi, an officer of the Royal Army, after September 8, phones the command to say that the Germans have allied themselves with the Americans and are shooting at the Italians. Unimaginable. Just like what's happening today: who would have ever imagined that Trump would support Putin by taking over all his propaganda? And yet, there is method in Trump's madness, as Shakespeare would have said. The US president strongly wants the axis with Putin so that he abandons the one with Xi. Given that it is not yet clear what Xi really wants, does Putin also want what Trump wants? If we consider alliances as a kind of marriage, these gentlemen are a group of swingers: the partners are not fixed, one time one, the other time. One thing can be ventured about Beijing's policy: Xi will try to take advantage of the chaos caused by Trump's fury to get closer to Brussels, aided by the US president's 'tariff frenzy'. And that will be another story".
One thing is certain: the “Day after” puts the issues and problems back exactly where they were before an unqualified president was elected in America, in the strict sense of the term, that is, someone who cannot be qualified, a leader, as he wrote Ernesto Galli of the Loggia on Corriere della Sera, which makes us forget the America we knew, the one with the “magical power of freedom” and which forces Europeans to take up a challenge they never thought they would face, the one launched by their major ally. In short, on the ground, in Ukraine, the war continues; indeed, the Russians, invigorated by the support of the “new” and “unthinkable” American ally, have intensified their attacks, massacring and destroying. While in the European capitals, they are trying to find a way forward. Which means first of all thinking about a defense that until the day before yesterday we had delegated to the American 'friend'.
Is it possible professor? Where are we at?
“An agreement had been reached, within NATO, to raise defense spending to a minimum of 2% of GDP. But immediately some wanted to be the best in the class. Some indicated 3%, some 4% and some even 5%. Even the winner of the German elections, and next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has announced that he wants to more than double the extraordinary allocation decided by his predecessor, from 100 to over 200 billion euros. The signal is certainly positive, since certainly Europe, since 1989, that is, when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union disappeared shortly after, has dangerously reduced its defense budgets and now finds itself having to quickly recover almost forty years of progressive disarmament. But the ever-increasing figures that reach us from various corners of the Alliance, in reality risk being wasted or in any case used in a less than optimal way if they are not channeled where they are really needed. And even today we don't know how much we should actually spend and in what timeframe. Instead of clear planning, even if urgent, we seem to be trapped in a sort of grotesque game of cucuzzaro: and why 2, and why 3, 4 or more cucuzze?”
What would be the right way?
“To be serious, the countries interested in making a real and effective common effort should, first of all, create a planning and command center, in other words a multilateral General Staff, which will do what NATO tells it to do as long as it works, but which in the meantime will take care of increasing European capabilities for the defense of the eastern border and Ukraine, also in anticipation of the moment in which NATO should begin to lose its ground. To this end, it will have to evaluate what we have available today, even without the Americans or with a very reduced presence of them, and establish what we need most urgently and what we will be able to acquire gradually over time”.
And fthis act?
"At this point, it will be possible to establish the real cost of the necessary effort, how much can be found in ordinary budgets and with extraordinary allocations, possibly by activating an integrated system of joint purchases, perhaps also using the tools already prepared by the European Union. And we will also see if it will be appropriate to create common debt. After all, we are facing an emergency. When it came to fighting the epidemic, we did not decide first how much we wanted to spend, but we decided what we had to buy, and then we found the money".
