Spanish premier Mariano Rajoy achieved two important goals in just one week: his centre-right party won the European elections and GDP recorded an auspicious +0,4% in the first quarter. This means that the recession is now a thing of the past and that the socialists will not make themselves heard again for quite some time. It is no coincidence that the head of the PSOE, Rubalcaba, has resigned and the left appears increasingly in disarray.
It is very peculiar that when the Spanish socialists are in vogue, the Italian ones suffer, and vice versa. Even if it must be remembered that Zapatero's interlude was not the happiest, as the former prime minister did not perceive the arrival of the crisis and did nothing to defuse the speculative bubble in the real estate sector.
Beyond these considerations, it must be said that Spain is still a recovering country: unemployment shows no signs of decreasing (young people without work are 45% of the total), the underground economy is around 30% and exports do not it goes as it should, demonstrating the fact that there are still some competitiveness problems.
Nonetheless, Spain is rediscovering the smile, self-confidence and consensus of the international community. In fact, the rating agencies have significantly improved their notes going forward, foreign investments in real estate are substantial, the spread is falling, inflation is stable.
At the same time, the credit sector has been restored and has resumed granting credit to SMEs, while two driving sectors such as tourism and cars have rediscovered their former glory. Indeed, the former awaits a significantly improved summer season thanks also to the generalized crisis in North Africa which is no longer as popular as it used to be; the second instead, thanks to the agreements signed with the main foreign parent companies (renault and Wv in the lead), managed to block the planned relocation.
However, it is clear that everyday life is not the one described and above all it is not that of big cities like Madrid or Barcelona. In fact, families continue to suffer, just as real estate has yet to reabsorb much of the speculation of the past. In short, we are navigating on sight even if the general climate is marked by optimism and the worst is certainly behind us.
Even on the political front, stability seems assured for a while, even if next autumn's Catalan referendum on independence weighs on the horizon. His outcome could in fact have some backlash, even if Rajoy has always said that the sovereignty of Madrid is not in question. As if to say that the problem should not become radicalized, perhaps in exchange for some other autonomist concession.
At the moment, however, they are distant problems. Spain enjoys the good economic data and above all hopes to make football indigestion after the round victories of its teams in the Champions League and the Europa League. La Roja is in fact eagerly awaited in Brazil to defend her title of World Champion. Congratulations!
