This month the Eurocoin index recorded a negative value (-0,13%): it is the first time for two years now. The data, elaborated by the Bank of Italy together with the CEPR study centre, illustrates the underlying growth trend in the currency union, several months ahead of the data on GDP.
The minus sign therefore represents a sign of a relapse into recession for the Eurozone. The last time a value below zero was recorded was September 2009. Today's data is in line with the expectations of analysts, who however had been more optimistic, forecasting an average of -0,10%.
The weakening of the index reflects declines in most of the items analyzed by the survey, "especially in the climate of business and consumer confidence", note Bank of Italy and CEPR in a joint note. Eurostat's first estimate of euro area GDP in the third quarter will be published on 15 November.
