New signs of economic weakness are coming from China. The HSBC flash index, surprisingly, fell to 49,2 points, below the boundary dividing growth and recession. Beijing's slowdown, combined with the weaker dollar, is helping to push stock prices back from record levels. The Tokyo Stock Exchange loses 0,2%, after retouching its highs since 2000 on Monday. Shanghai drops 0,6%.
The weakness of the dollar against the euro, traded above 1,09 (4% more since Wednesday's Fed meeting) was not enough to revive Wall Street. After a day in positive territory, the Dow Jones index fell by 0,06%, the S&P 500 by 0,17% and the Nasdaq, Friday's 15-year top, by 0,31%.
THE SPREAD IS WIDENING. THE CAR BRAKES FRANKFURT
Yesterday was also a difficult day for the European stock exchanges, aided by Greece and the recovery of the euro. Milan closed down 0,5%. London unchanged, Paris -0,6%, Frankfurt -1,3%, held back by the decline in export-oriented sectors (automotive -2,8%). The Stoxx 600 index, down by 0,6% to 401,5 points, postpones the attack on the historic record (405,5 points). Friday had gone up to 404,5 points, the historical record is 405,5 points.
The spread of government bonds widens again: the BTP weakens, with the 1,28-year yield at 0,17%, while the yield on the Bund has touched new lows at 0,21%, to recover in the final to 5, 16,06%. Greece's 49-year bond trades at XNUMX% (+XNUMX basis points).
GREECE STALL. FISCHER (FED): RATES UP BY THE YEAR
“The only path to follow is that of dialogue”. So have Angela Merkel and Alexis Tsipras in a break from the meeting, agreeing that "over the past five years the rescue of Greece has not been a success story". The agreement, for now, stops here. Too little for a dramatic situation, given that the coffers of Athens, barring aid, will be completely emptied by 10 April.
But the collapse of Athens is only the tip of the iceberg of new tensions on the global finance front, after the long dollar rally and the triumphal launch of Qe. In the US, once the Fed's veto on rate hikes has been dropped, the shares of the hawks take off. Stanley Fischer, Yellen's prestigious deputy, stressed that a rate hike will probably be necessary by the end of 2015.
Meanwhile, Mario Draghi instead reiterated that the latest data confirm the growth of the economy, but predicted that inflation will rise again at the end of 2015, which has fueled the suspicion that Qe could end sooner than expected. But the president added that he sees no problems for the ECB in finding bonds to buy between now and 2017.
PIRELLI, THE MARKET HOPES FOR A RELAUNCH. FCA BACK
Pirelli climbs (yesterday +1,77% to 15,5 euros) after the announcement of the landing of the Chinese at BIcocca. The share was thus positioned above the defined price agreed between Camfin and ChemChina and the consequent takeover bid at 15 euro. Piazza Affari seems to want to bet on two alternative scenarios for the company's future: a possible counter-offer from a competitor (Michelin, Continental or Bridgestone) or on an increase in the offer from the Chinese of ChemChina.
The recovery of the euro hit the automotive sector, one of the sectors most sensitive to export trends. Fiat Chrysler lost 1,8% yesterday. Exor also fell (-1,4%).
ABU DHABI STEPS BACK FROM UNICREDIT
Aabar, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund, is preparing to take a step back from Unicredit. A bond worth at least 1 billion convertible into Unicredit could already be placed this morning thanks to the shares held by the Gulf shareholder. The operation will be handled by a pool made up of Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, BNP Paribas and Société Générale. Overall, the shares in the Abu Dhabi portfolio have a market value of around €2 billion. The placement of the bond should not have an immediate impact on the governance of the institution led by Federico Ghizzoni because the bond does not provide for mandatory conversion. Therefore, it is not certain that Aabar, who currently represents the bank's vice president Luca Montezemolo plus another director, will be able to drastically reduce his stake in the institute on the eve of the renewal of the board of directors.
MEDIOANUM BEST BLUE CHIP. FLY SOUL
Managed savings in the limelight. The best blue chip of the day yesterday was Mediolanum with an increase of 2,5%. Anima was also highlighted which, with a leap of 7%, reached the new all-time high of 6,54 euros. After the presentation of the 2014 data (dividend at 0,167 euros) UBS raised its target price to 6,60 euros, the rating remains Buy. The company ended 2014 with total revenues up 3% year-over-year to $226,9 million. Net profit normalized by extraordinary income for 2013 is equal to 110 million euros, up 17% year on year.
MEDIASET DIVIDES ANALYST
Mediaset (-1,35%) closed yesterday's session down on the eve of the board meeting on the accounts. Analysts are divided on the forecasts for the Biscione. Bernstein confirmed the negative underperform opinion and the target price of 1,65 euros in the belief that the Italian advertising market will not restart again this year with substantially stable investments in TV. For Mediobanca Securities, on the other hand, the share of the subsidiary Fininvest is "a cheap bet on the recovery of advertising in Italy": the activities of the Italian "free to air" TVs trade at 8 times the enterprise value/ebit in 2016 compared to 13 times of European competitors, with a 40% discount.
LIKE A2A-SORGENIA. SARAS AT THE TOP
The market likes the hypothesis of an alliance between A2A and Sorgenia through a newco in which to contribute their respective combined cycle plants, i.e. the generation assets most affected in terms of profitability by the collapse of the energy market and by the massive incentives for renewables.
Saras (yesterday +4,7%) is at its highest level in the last 12 months after the strong increase in refining margins (6 dollars a barrel against 3,8 in February). The volumes of securities traded also increased sharply: 14,2 million pieces, the highest volume in a month.
FERRAGAMO'S RATING GOES UP. GOOD RATES FOR BANZAI AND DRUMS
Salvatore Ferragamo advances (yesterday +0,44%). The company extended its eyewear licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear for another 5 years. Equita Sim raised the target price on the stock from 31,5 to 33,5 euro, confirming the buy recommendation.
Banzai leap forward (yesterday +4,5% to 5,82 euros). Banca Akros started hedging with the positive recommendation Accumulate and a target price of 7,0 euro.
Tamburi (yesterday +0,3%) updates the historical highs again at 3,57 euros. Equita confirmed the buy decision and raised the target price to 3,60 euro from the previous 3,40 euro
Maire also did well (yesterday +2,25%). Barclays raised its target price on the stock from 3 to 3,35 euros, confirming the overweight rating.
Digital Bros (yesterday +6,67%) ranked among the best stocks in the whole of Piazza Affari. The company has signed a deal with Starbreeze on PayDay 2 add-on content for the next 24 months for $13,4 million.
