Euro at nine and a half year lows at 1,1842 against the dollar and oil down 10% in four days, with Brent below 51 dollars a barrel, while the WTI (-3,5%) broke through the $48 barrier. Yields at historic lows for government securities of Japan, Germany, France, Holland, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Canada and Australia.
“The good times are over,” says Bill Gross, a former Pimco manager, in a report for clients of the $1,2 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund. According to Gross, 2015 will witness a general decline in asset prices: the driving force of cheap money is over.
For now, the markets, which take the start of Qe in Europe for granted, are looking for safe havens. Meanwhile, judging by the prices touched by the T bonds, operators are also questioning the rise in US rates in June. In the spotlight today the data on EU inflation and the publication, in the evening, of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed.
THE REBOUNCE OF THE EU EXCHANGES FAILS
The stock exchanges await the events, with bated breath. Tokyo rebounds by 0,4% this morning. After a negative start, the lists recovered: Hong Kong +0,1%, Shanghai +0,3%. Weak close on Wall Street: S&P -0,03%, Dow Jones -0,74%, Nasdaq -1,29%.
The attempt to rebound in European stock markets after Black Monday has failed. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed down by 0,2%. Paris -0,7%, Frankfurt almost unchanged (-0,04%). The spread between the Bund and the Btp, which yields 1,83%, widens to 136 basis points. Gold rose for the third consecutive day: +1,2%, at 1.220 dollars an ounce.
GREECE: POLLS REWARD THE LEFT
Meanwhile fever is rising in the Eurozone in anticipation of the Greek elections. Yesterday, the stock exchanges' attempt to recover was extinguished after the release of a poll on the Greeks' voting intentions on January 25th. In first place, according to surveys by Oxford Economics reported by the Financial Times website, there is Syriza, with a share of around 40%. New Democracy is about 5% behind all other parties by 10%. According to the report, with this percentage of voters, Alexis Tsipras would have a "clear mandate" to renegotiate the terms of the Greek bailout imposed by the Troika.
In the meantime, Bild reported the existence of an emergency plan developed by Germany to deal with the consequences of the "tearing" of Athens in the event of a victory for the radical left.
FCA SPEEDS UP. FOR MORGAN STANLEY THE TARGET RISES TO 14 EUROS
The most comforting data comes from the Agnelli team. CNH (+2,4%) and FCA (+1,6%, to 9,6150 euros) rose, taking another step towards the 10 euro barrier. Yesterday Morgan Stanley raised the target price of the stock to 14 from 13 euros, confirming the Overweight recommendation. Analysts from the American Investment Bank have rewarded the capital strengthening measures recently launched by the group and are convinced that Ferrari will become a "trigger" capable of attracting the attention of investors. Even net of Ferrari, an attractive valuation is recognized for the remaining business, considering for example the growth potential of Jeep.
Yesterday the sales data of the FCA group in the USA were published. December closed with an increase of 20% to 193.261 units. Only Juventus slowed down (-0,58% to 0,221 euros). Banca Imi confirmed the add recommendation on the share and the target price at 0,25 euro.
ENI-ENEL, RECOVERY TESTS
On Tuesday Eni rebounded in the aftermath of Monday's collapse (-8,8%), with the stock gaining 1,5%, to 13,55 euros. The six-legged dog hit a 12-month low on December 16 at €12,98. Saipem lost 0,7%. Tenaris +1,4%. Enel rose by 1,5% to 3,4920 euros, after -6,5% on Monday. UBS has decided to include the stock in the list of favorites in the Eurozone (European Key Calls List), maintaining the Buy rating with a target price reduced to 5 euros from the previous 5,15 euros.
Enel Green Power +0,24% : Royal Bank of Canada has started hedging the stock with an outperform rating and a target price of 2,4 euros. Snam -0,46%: UBS has reduced its stock recommendation from buy to neutral, with the target price going from 4,55 to 4,25 euros.
BANKS UNDER FIRE, CARIGE SHINES
Widespread declines in the banking sector, with the exception of Carige (+5,15%) supported by the speculative appeal of the possible entry into the shareholding structure of Andrea Bonomi. For the rest, Tuesday only red closures: Unicredit -1,3%, Intesa -1,4%, Ubi Banca -3,5%, Banca Popolare di Milano -4%, Mediobanca -1,4%, Banco Popolare - 4,7%, Monte Paschi -3,9%.
