Start of the year marked by a weak euro. This morning on the Asian markets the single currency is traded at 1,18605 against the dollar, at its lowest level since 2006. The flight of the US currency, however, continues: the Dollar Index, based on the exchange ratios with a basket of six currencies, is at its highest by nine years.
Meanwhile, the descent of oil resumes: Brent has fallen below the threshold of 56 dollars a barrel, crude oil trades at 51,40 dollars. The weak start of Wall Street in 2015 weighs on the stock markets, conditioned by the disappointing data of the manufacturing activity. S&P index futures settled at -0,1%. Traders are expecting employment data on Friday.
Tokyo slows down (-1,57%), weighed down by the yen, the only currency gaining positions against the dollar. Positive Hong Kong, +0,50%. Shanghai's unstoppable race continues (+1,71%), driven by the expectation of monetary stimuli from Beijing.
BERLIN: THE EXIT OF GREECE WOULD NOT BE A DRAMA
Therefore, 2015 also opens under the banner of central banks. This applies to the USA, pending the first meeting of the Fed (28-29 January) from which more precise indications should emerge on the timing and methods of raising official rates. Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released this week.
This applies to China and the emerging markets, which are committed to countering the negative effects of the superdollar, as demonstrated by the maneuver by the Turkish central bank which raised the constraints on reserves to counter the collapse of the lira. This morning the Indonesian rupiah, the Malaysian ringitt and the Korean won are down sharply.
This is especially true for the ECB, in view of the launch of QE, widely anticipated by the trend of the debt market. In this light, the most important macro appointment of the week will be the publication of EU inflation data tomorrow.
But the spotlights on the markets are already focused on three January deadlines which promise to be decisive: 1) on 14 the opinion of the Advocacy General of the European Court of Justice on the OMT will be made public, a heavy mortgage on the next moves of the BCE; 2) on the 22nd the directorate of the European Central Bank decides on the possible launch of Quantitative Easing; 3) finally, on the 25th, elections will be held in Greece.
The article by the authoritative Spiegel contributed to igniting the atmosphere, in view of the month of fire, which, citing circles close to Angela Merkel herself, underlined that the eventual exit of Greece from the eurozone "would not be a drama" . However, Berlin has denied this, assuring that "there is no change of course" on Greece and the possibility of its exit from the Eurozone.
The interview with the Handelsblatt in which Mario Draghi confirmed the imminent launch of some Quantitative Easing interventions had different effects on the stock exchanges of the Old Continent: Milan and Madrid were positive, while the other lists were down. The week had a contrasting trend for all European markets: Frankfurt lost 0,23%, Paris 1,45%.
Despite the rebound (+0,60%) on Friday, the first session of 2015, Piazza Affari dropped 1,14% in the week leading up to New Year's Eve.
2015, A YEAR OF 260 BILLION OFFERS FOR BTPs
The reaction of the sovereign debt market is far more relevant. The first session of 2015 reserved absolutely unthinkable news just a few months ago. For the first, the yield on the 5-year German government bond fell into negative territory (-0,007%). The 2024-year Bund maturing August 0,50 trades at XNUMX%.
A new record also for the Btp 10, which fell to a yield of 1,73%. The Spanish Bono trades just above 1,50%, the spread with the Bund is around 100 bp. The conditions of the first Bot auction of 2015 will be announced on Wednesday 7. The next day will be the turn of medium-long term issues.
The year promises to be particularly demanding for the Treasury: medium/long-term issues for 200 billion are due, to which another 60 billion will be added to finance borrowing requirements. Maturing Bots amount to 119 billion.
BANKS, HIGHLIGHTS BPM. MPS ON A MISSION TO FRANKFURT
Positive start for credit in Europe (+1,4% the Eurostoxx sector index) with the exception of the Royal Bank of Scotland -0,6%, targeted by the US authorities for the sale of toxic bonds. In Piazza Affari, interest in Bpm is on fire (+5,3%), the best European stock in the category, after having recorded a brilliant +36% in 2014 (against -5% for the European sector). The forthcoming resumption of the governance reform as well as the forthcoming sale of a package of non-performing loans are driving the stock.
On Friday also Banco Popolare (+2,3%) and the two big names: Intesa +1,3% and Unicredit +1,9%. The countdown has begun in view of the mission of the top management of Monte Paschi to the Supervision of the ECB: on 15 January the bank will know if it can count on a "discount" on requests for capital strengthening.
VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE GIVES WINGS TO MANAGEMENT
The asset management sector is in great evidence pending the take-off of the voluntary disclosure. The agreement with Switzerland for the exchange of information between financial administrations could be announced in a few days. Uphill Azimuth +1.9%. Lazard rose to 5,007% stake. Finecobank +1,5%, Banca Generali +1,1%.
TELECOM, TELCO AT THE LAST ACT
After the OK from Anatel, the Brazilian telecommunications authority, the demerger of Telco is proceeding, conditional on Telefonica leaving the capital of the holding company that controls Telecom Italia within 18 months and on the freezing of voting rights in the meantime. With the operation Telefonica will have 14,8% of Telecom (partly already destined to Vivendi), Generali about 4% while Intesa Sanpaolo and Mediobanca 1,6% each.
The Trieste company has already taken steps to park its share, and they will do the same in view of a Mediobanca and Intesa exit.
FCA WAITING FOR CHRYSLER'S RECORD SALES
Fiat Chrysler (+0,8%) faces the examination of the market after the data on sales in Italy and awaiting the numbers of Chrysler on the US market which will be released in the afternoon. The Italian market grew by 4,2% but registrations were still 45% lower than in 2007. Fiat sold 377 cars (+1,4% on 2013), an insufficient volume to guarantee the future of related industries, with a share of 27,7%.
Italy now weighs only 10% on group sales, even less on revenues. This is also why attention is focused on today's Chrysler data: a new record is expected.
ATLANTIA AND SALINI, TIME FOR INDEMNITIES
Refund season for some made in Italy companies. Salini Impregilo (+1,7% on Friday) won the first round against the Panama Canal Authority. The consortium in which the Belgian Ian de Nul and the Spanish Sacyr participate in addition to the Italian company was awarded a refund of 234 million.
France has recognized an indemnity of 403 million to Ecomuv, the consortium 70% controlled by Atlantia +3,2%. To this amount, to be paid by March, will be added another 390 million for the management of the debt contracted to support the operation.
SEAT STILL AGITATED: THE PRESIDENT RESIGNS
A new turbulent session is looming for Seat. President Guido De Vivo resigned on Friday evening. A press release from the company explains that the resignations "are motivated by differences relating to the management of the transition phase which, from the conclusion of the composition procedure, will lead to the natural expiry of the current board of directors with the approval of the financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2014″.
The gesture precedes by a few days the meeting which on January 27 will have to rule on the liability action against the previous directors.
