For the moment, Italy will not leave the euro nor will citizens have the opportunity to have their say on the issue through a consultative referendum on the single currency. The demands on the debt change and the Tav is back in doubt.
In the new government contract completed yesterday by Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega vaccines also enter by force, with a clear openness towards no-vaxes, but above all a new constitutional reform is making its debut, necessary to introduce the mandate constraint, abolish the Cnel and reduce the number of parliamentarians. Points, the last two, at the basis of the reform, wanted by the Renzi government, rejected last December 4 and opposed by the Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle.
The workhorses of both parties remain: flat tax and basic income, but there are many points still to be defined.
The 39 pages of document - almost definitive - produced by the working group made up of parliamentarians and experts from the Lega and M5S, already passed through the Thursday evening meeting between Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini even if the whole operation is obviously missing the response of the Quirinale.
Many new features compared to previous draft, published on Tuesday byHuffington Post, which had created quite a few controversies and aroused a violent reaction from the markets. Among these, one of the latest amendments includes an official position on the Jobs Act. Here are the most significant chapters of the new government contract between Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle. Which, according to the former Mister Spending Review, Carlo Cottarelli would have a cost that is around 100 billion.
FLAT TAX
The document contains the now famous Flat tax, the details of which will have to be evaluated by the leaders of the two parties leading the Executive. However, the basic mechanism should be as follows: two fixed rates at 15% and 20% for natural persons, families and VAT numbers (it is not yet known with what income ceiling), a fixed rate of 15% for companies.
Among the tax innovations envisaged are thegoodbye to the spender and income meter. There is a contradiction instead on the pardon: on one side the removal of the Equitalia folders is invoked, a theme dear above all to the League, even if only in particular cases such as for example job loss, illness, family crises, etc.; on the other hand there is the classic proclamation "handcuffs to tax evaders", a figure of 5 stars, translated with a peremptory "tightening of the existing administrative and penal sanction framework, to ensure real prison for the great tax evaders".
BASIC INCOME
The introduction of the basic income of 780 euros per month for a "single person" has been confirmed, who will receive three proposals over a two-year period (timing still to be discussed). If you refuse them all, the benefit will be forfeited. The text also contains thecitizen's pension”, that is to say “a supplement for a pensioner who has an allowance of less than 780 euros per month according to the parameters envisaged for the Citizenship income”. Necessary, as indicated, 17 billion euros a year to which it is necessary to add a further 2 billion useful for reforming the employment centres. For the coverage, at least in part, the use of European funds is envisaged.
Will vouchers reintroduced abolished by the Gentiloni Government, but the new tickets will be reviewed and corrected in order to avoid abuses. "The cancellation of the vouchers has created many inconveniences to the many sectors for which this means of payment represents an indispensable tool", says the contract. And therefore the intention is to "resuscitate" them even if with a different name: "We need to introduce a special tool, agile but clear and simple, which does not lend itself to abuse for the management of ancillary employment relationships".
PENSIONS
On page 21 there is lo stop the Fornero law with the aim of “providing for the abolition of the imbalances in the social security system introduced by the pension reform”. An allocation of 5 billion euros is also envisaged to "facilitate the exit from the labor market of the categories currently excluded".
Contemplate the introduction of the so-called Quota 100 and the extension of the "women's option", also established (in point 24 of the contract) a cut to golden pensions above 5.000 euros "not justified by the contributions paid" (therefore we refer to the salary system and not to the contribution system that came into force later). You can retire even after having paid 41 years of contributions, regardless of age.
PUBLIC DEBT, DEFICITS AND RELATIONS WITH THE EU
As anticipated, the request to cancel 250 billion euros of debt accumulated with the ECB disappears from the text. We talk instead of proposing one "audit" which makes it possible to exclude the government bonds purchased by the ECB with Quantitative Easing from the calculation of the debt/GDP ratio of the euro area countries. A "discount" that would affect all countries but which appears equally unsustainable and improbable.
Another issue on which Di Maio and Salvini's joint assessment is awaited is that relating to deficit public and the 3% ceiling for which at the moment there is only talk of "multi-year programming aimed at ensuring the financing of the proposals covered by this contract through the recovery of resources deriving from the reduction of waste, debt management and an appropriate use of the deficit".
As regards the relations with the EU, the contract envisages re-discussing the Italian contribution to the Union, overcoming the Bolkenstein directive which has angered street vendors and bathing establishment concessionaires so much. The "radical revision" of the bail-in stands out on the banks.
RUSSIA AND FOREIGN POLICY
Point 11 entitled "Foreign" is delicate. M5s and Lega confirm their membership in NATO and the vision of the USA as a "privileged ally". In parallel, however, it is proposed the lifting of the sanctions imposed on Russia "to be rehabilitated as a strategic interlocutor for the resolution of regional crises (Syria, Libya, Yemen)". Moscow should no longer be perceived as a "threat but as an economic and commercial partner".
At a general level, the "principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of individual states" is affirmed. Not only that: international missions "distant from the Italian national interest" will also be re-evaluated.
IMMIGRATION
One of the most substantial chapters of the contract concerns immigration, which in all likelihood will be directly dealt with by the number one of the League, Matteo Salvini, who has already claimed the Viminale for himself, assigning the trusted Giorgetti the role of undersecretary with responsibility for Services . In this chapter, there are still many points marked in red and therefore still open. The document mentions the contrast to the landings of undocumented immigrants, but it is not explained how to do it. The presence of Temporary Stay Centers (CIE) in the individual regions, and the establishment of a register for the ministers of religion of the Mosques, need to be reviewed. Salvini and Di Maio will also have to discuss the applications for international protection for refugees that will have to take place in the countries of origin or transit. Whether or not these structures will have to guarantee "the full protection of human rights" remains to be established.
Instead, it establishes “the closure of all irregular nomad camps; the fight against toxic fires; the obligation of minors to attend school under penalty of expulsion from the family”. In short, the hard line of the League passes.
JOBS ACT
The reference to the Jobs Act is the latest, all-political addition to the chapter dedicated to work: the fault of the reform, from the point of view of the two aspiring majority parties, is that it has created precariousness to be countered "to build more stable and allow families to plan their future more serenely”. The contract does not mention the return of article 18, but it is not difficult to predict that the discussion will also flare up again on this eternal theme.
VACCINES
Point intended to be discussed concerns the step back on vaccines. "While guaranteeing the necessary vaccination coverage - we read - the issue of the right balance between the right to education and the right to health must be addressed, protecting pre-school and school-age children who could be at risk of social exclusion". Therefore, the exclusion from schools of unvaccinated children and the sanctions envisaged for parents are once again in doubt.
CONCILIATION COMMITTEE
Another significant proposal concerns the introduction of a "Conciliation Committee" - which many have already renamed "Shadow Government" - which will support the council of ministers in order to resolve the disputes between the two parties. However, the instrument has been attenuated compared to the previous draft, in order to avoid possible profiles of unconstitutionality. In fact, the composition of the Conciliation Committee has disappeared from the text, postponed "until the parties agree". In the first draft, the Committee was made up of the prime minister, leaders and group leaders of the two political forces, in addition to the minister responsible for each issue. The suspension for at least 10 days of actions on controversial issues also disappears. The resolution by qualified majority of two thirds is also gone. What's left? The function of settling disputes, such as suggesting solutions. However, the centrality of the body in the deliberative phase is less and the grip of a far-reaching understanding to unleash the most difficult and divisive affairs is loosened.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The text includes changes to the conflict of interest: it is proposed to extend the discipline to statutory auditors and managers of state-owned companies. "We believe - reads the last approved text - that the interference between a public interest and another public or private interest, which may influence the objective, independent and impartial exercise of a public function, should qualify as a possible conflict of interest , not only when this can lead to an economic advantage for those who exercise the public function and are in a condition of a possible conflict of interest, but also in the absence of an advantage immediately qualifying as monetary”. This is certainly, as already written, the part most attributable to Silvio Berlusconi, albeit formulated in a generic way. The second passage also marks the "populist" imprint of the alliance, remaining however vague: "We also intend to extend the discipline to non-governmental positions, i.e. to all those subjects who, while not holding government roles, have the power and ability to influence decisions policies or that concern the management of public affairs, such as, for example, the mayors of large cities or the managers of state-owned companies".
THE OTHER MEASURES
On the subject of Justice to be discussed will be "the reform of the prescription of crimes", while we will move forward on a topic dear to the Northern League, that relating to legitimate defense.
On great works, the "suspension of works" of the Tav is expected in order to re-discuss the project, while the Third Pass receives the green light. L'Ilva it won't close, but jobs on the one hand and the environment on the other will be safeguarded, while up Alitalia rescue is excluded, but a relaunch of the company is proposed in order to guarantee the presence of "a competitive national carrier".
Two of the proposed measures will please former Premier Renzi, for which, however, a constitutional reform will be necessary: the abolition of the Cnel and the reduction of the number of parliamentarians reaching 200 senators and 400 deputies. On the subject of changes to the Charter.
Lega and M5S swear "loyal cooperation" on the government contract, but in the latest version of the document they eliminate the part that bound the political forces both in the Council of Ministers and in Parliament. Instead, there appears to be a mutual commitment to ensure the unity of the groups at the time of voting on the measures that form part of the programme: a sort of pact against turncoats. Tripping in the Chamber is also prohibited on measures not included in the contract but considered "fundamental" by one of the two parties. The text reads: "Commitment not to put the other party in a minority in matters that are of fundamental importance to it". The agreements have a duration of 5 years, for the entire XVIII legislature, with a verification set in the middle of the process. Another agreement sanctioned in black and white is the non-aggression pact between Lega and M5S in national and local electoral competitions.
No changes regarding DEFENSE, with a "more effective use" of the personnel of the armed forces, the commitment to the "protection of Italian industry", in particular "design and construction of ships" (Fincantieri) "aircraft and high tech systems" (Leonardo Finmeccanica), the prediction of "new recruits in the forces of order". Lega and M5S foresee a re-evaluation of the presence of Italian soldiers on missions abroad. Also in this perspective, the new text adds the commitment to a spending review to "rationalise the waste of resources in military spending also with reference to the reform of disused real estate assets".
Heavy hand the hand on the so-called political privileges: recalculation of pensions on the basis of the contributory system for all parliamentarians, regional councilors and all employees of constitutional bodies "also for the past". Tighten on blue cars and stocks.
The request to the EU remains reform of the common agricultural policy. And the will remains to modify the National Agency for disbursements in agriculture and the information system of services in the sector. Compared to the first draft, fishing peeks out: here too, the fight in Brussels to reconsider "restrictions and directives" such as "fishing closures" when "they are not based on objective criteria".
Lastly, the other measures include: the birth of a ministry for Disability, greater regulation of gambling, the reform of the status of "Rome Capital" so dear to mayor Virginia Raggi, a code of ethics that excludes members of Freemasonry from the Government and an intervention on Rai which provides for "more transparency, the elimination of political subdivision and the promotion of meritocracy".
(Updated 11am Friday May 18).
