As can be read in the report published by Euler Hermes Italy, the current phase of economic crisis in the EU market which is heavily influencing the world economy is further aggravated by theadoption by governments of austerity policies and budgetary shrinkage, thereby reducing global demand and growth reciprocally and cumulatively. Public debt in advanced economies is at an all-time high, also as a result of the introduction of the necessary binding rules for the financial system that caused the global crisis of 2008-2009. In this scenario, according to the estimates offered by the IMF, between June 2011 and the following one the Italian economy lost 235 billion euros of investments, equal to about 15% of GDP, being committed to strengthening fiscal sustainability in the face of a debt-to-GDP ratio now standing at 123%, an all-time high since 1995.
From a business perspective, excess production capacity still pervades many sectors together with the risk of industrial desertification for some areas of the country, such as the South. Risky lending has grown 140% since 2008 and the credit crunch continues to inhibit economic opportunities, while layoffs grew by 8,9% in the first nine months of the year. Just under half of Italian companies close within 5 years of life, surrendering to an environment too often unable to adequately support economic initiative local. Despite this, Italian manufacturing continues to generate a third of the national GDP and supplies the country with 78% of its exports. 2013 should be a year of recovery, albeit very slowly and gradually due to the carryover effect from 2012, while 2014 and 2015 should review the positive sign (although, we add, much depends on when and how the current political crisis will be resolved).
The deceleration of national economic growth is then reflected in the trend of non-payments by Italian companies. After the first nine months of 2012, the number of missed payments in the internal market has grown by 25% compared to the same period in 2011, while the average amount remains unchanged. Difficulties in accessing credit and the drop in consumption with the consequent extension of payment times lead companies not to honor their commitments, even if the frequency and severity remain decidedly lower than the financial crisis of 2008. And, despite a less worrying trend, the increase in unpaid sums also affected the export marketboth in terms of frequency (+5%) and severity (+9%).
From a sectoral point of view, footwear and agri-food industries are affected by a drop in consumption, inefficiencies in the distribution chain and rising costs for businesses, while, if leather and tanning they managed to hook up important orders by foreign luxury "maisons", the mechanical sector presents the specificity of high value-added production and often tailored to customer needs.
From a regional point of view, the indicators relating to non-payments are worsening for 7 out of 10 regions, while only Friuli – Venezia Giulia shows both an improvement, thanks to the stability of exports in some districts. Self in Lombardy SMEs suffer from the slowdown in exports which is hitting the territory with a large number of bankruptcies, in Veneto the reduced variations are due to the dynamism of some districts, such as the eyewear and furniture districts of Treviso, which focus on a strategy of quality and new markets. In south, however, the country's economic deceleration is even more evident if you look at the growing number of non-payments in Basilicata, Sicily and Sardinia. I sign that timely and decisive policies are needed to relaunch the Italian production system, capable of fueling economic growth, household purchasing power and leveling the differentials of economic opportunities between regions.
