“We have achieved a lot together in the last five years, starting from European Green Deal al Next Generation Eu, Pact on Migration and Asylum and the implementation of European Pillar of Social Rights. We must and will stay the course on all our goals, including those set out in the European Green Deal." The President of the European Commission says so, Ursula von der Leyen, in his programmatic document for a second mandate.
Now, in fact, von der Leyen is about to lead the European Commission for another five years. What will crown her will not be the 562 votes received by Roberta Metsola to lead the EU Parliament. The outgoing president aims, however, to exceed 380, improving the performance of five years ago. It will do so in the name of a complex program, designed to wink to the right of Ecr on some topics e to the Greens over others. The real puzzle, for Ursula, will be that of contours of its majority: a tripartite made up of the EPP, Socialists and Renew or a quadripartite with the addition of the Greens?
Ursula von der Leyen, the speech: here's what she said
In his speech for reconfirmation, von der Leyen outlined an ambitious and inclusive program for the five-year period 2024-2029, calibrated to attract broad consensus, with the clear exception of Orbán's far right and the German neo-Nazis of AfD. The various ones have not gone unnoticed openings to Italy by Giorgia Meloni on migrants, Mediterranean, de-bureaucratization e competitiveness with a focus on small and medium-sized businesses.
Despite her firm adherence to the Green Deal, von der Leyen has indicated a new direction, welcoming industry and entrepreneurship. “We will focus investments on a new industrial deal,” he declared, underlining the need for predictability for businesses and a sustainable future for emerging generations. But precisely his program is designed to satisfy a wide range of interests, so here's the new capital market to transform Europe into a center of “opportunity and innovation”, supported by a “Competitiveness Fund".
The president then announced the creation of two new key figures: A commissioner for the housing emergency and one for the Mediterranean, aiming to promote economic stability, job creation and security in the region. He also announced a “Vice President for Implementation, Simplification and Interinstitutional Relations”, highlighting his desire to accelerate and simplify procedures in Europe. “We need to make doing business easier and faster in Europe. I will put speed, coherence and simplification among the main political priorities”, underlined the President in her political guidelines, indicating that “each commissioner will have the task of focusing on reducing administrative burdens and simplifying implementation: less bureaucracy and reporting, more trust, better enforcement, faster authorizations.”
On the front of'immigration, reiterated that the borders of a Member State are also the European borders, a clear message to Giorgia Meloni: "I will propose to triple the Frontex units to 30 thousand to improve the protection of our borders".
In the field of defense, von der Leyen insisted on the importance of robust investments and strengthened cooperation between Member States, proposing a air shield as a symbol of solidarity and cohesion of the EU. With a clear promise: “I will not let the extreme polarization of our society be accepted and I will not accept that extremism or demagoguery destroy our European way of life”, continued Ursula attacking harshly Orbán for going to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Two weeks ago a European prime minister went to Moscow. This so-called peace mission was only a mission of appeasement, a policy of excessive concessions. Only two days later, Putin's jets hit a children's hospital,” he said, sparking long applause from the plenary, with the obvious exception of the MEPs from Orban's group, the Patriots.
Von der Leyen, what will Meloni do?
The great element of uncertainty in today's vote on the reconfirmation of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission concerns the delegation of Fratelli d'Italia, which has not yet expressed itself clearly: what will Giorgia Meloni decide to do? Not even - according to what sources report - in the last meeting of the ECR group last night, in which it was freedom of voting by delegation confirmed. However, it is clearer the Green line: today they will officially announce their yes to the German leader. This could create stomach aches within the popular party, in particular among the Germans of the CSU, who would not want to share the next legislature with the environmentalists. But the numbers count. The majority Ursula it's stuck at 401.
considering possible defections, at 10%, there would be a risk of ending up below the necessary absolute majority of 361. The help of the Greens who bring 53 MEPs could be decisive. They insist that they also gave a signal with the vote for Roberta Metsola for the presidency of the European Parliament. The president of the People's Party group, Manfred weber, appears confident: “I am very optimistic, as always,” he told theAgi. Meanwhile, however, the president-designate continued to meet individual MEPs and delegations throughout the day. And for this morning she is ready to distribute the document with her programmatic lines, to be discussed in the morning debate. The vote is scheduled for 13pm.
New EU Commission, what the abacus says
Abacus in hand, the preference range for von der Leyen ranges from 395 to 425. It will essentially depend on the decision of Fratelli d'Italia. The delegations of the ECR have already announced their opposition Poland, France and Romania. The delegations from the Czech Republic (three) and Belgium (three) will almost certainly vote in favour. The MEP of the Democratic Party and Vice President of the European Parliament, Pina Picierno, assures that "there will be no snipers" in the delegation but the same cannot be said of the group. The French socialists, of whom there are ten, did not show great conviction. As well as other colleagues of Denmark and Bulgaria. There could be fifteen out of 136 against.
In the group of the Renew Liberals the Irish, of whom there are six, have already said they are against it, and the Germans also have many doubts. The EPP is also a big unknown. For days Weber has been threatening all parliamentarians in his group who do not show up to vote with serious measures. The delegations of France, Austria and Slovenia had already expressed doubts. The snipers can easily be estimated at around fifteen. Von der Leyen will have just under an hour of speech to convince everyone. A debate will follow in which some groups will be able to cast their votes. Not everyone will do it. There are those who will only say it later, but with the secret of the urn it will not be possible to have confirmation and it will be difficult to collect any reward.
New commission, what will it be like? Tight on pole
There are two constants in the elements of the program that Ursula von der Leyen explained to the groups: the commissioner of Defense and the commissioner of Housing as the main innovations of the future European executive. The president-designate is unlikely to retrace her steps. Certainly in the head of the former German Defense Minister there is a Commission quite different from the one that is about to end her mandate. The new von der Leyen legislature, her staff have repeatedly explained, will not essentially be characterized by continuity. The portfolios, therefore, will have different titles and skills compared to the current ones. Some will merge several general directorates, others will remain essentially the same, but with different titles. Defence, for example, could be formally merged with Industry.
There will be a commissioner for the defense of European Values and Democracy, in the wake of the portfolio currently held by Vera Jourova. The puzzle game between executive vice presidencies, vice presidencies and simple commissioners will be less complex and cumbersome. Von der Leyen wants a more streamlined structure and it is not excluded that some delegations will be held. The Pnrr will also have its space and will be placed alongside the Budget. At the moment this seems to be the box intended for the Minister for EU Affairs, the South, Cohesion and the Pnrr Raffaele Fitto. But here it leads to negotiations between von der Leyen and the individual states on the profiles that the 27 chancelleries will indicate. And it is a game that is only just beginning.
The president will expect at least two nominations from each member state, one man and one woman. In truth, several governments have already unofficially put forward profiles. Latvia confirmed the hawk Valdis Dombrovskis, Slovakia the outgoing vice president Maros Sefcovic, Estonia will have the current prime minister Kaja kallas in the role of EU High Representative for Foreign Policy. The Spanish girl Teresa Ribera, among the ministers closest to Pedro Sanchez, could deal with the Green Deal, and this is it one of the requests received from the Greens in exchange for their yes to Ursula. Sweden will present the Minister for EU Affairs Jessica Rosswall, Ireland's current Finance Minister Michael McGrath, Finland the EPP MEP Henna Virkkunen.
In the list of commissioners the presence of exponents of external matches to the EPP-Socialisti-Renew triptych they will be very few. The issue of assigning vice-presidencies will be a complex balancing act that will have to satisfy capital and political groups. The French government, lost at the European Championships, Has Thierry breton and asks for an executive vice presidency for him. An iron Macronian, Breton is not a personality who goes unnoticed. And relations with von der Leyen herself are stormy, to say the least. But faced with the requests of founding countries such as France, Italy or Spain, personal relationships also have a lower specific weight.
The Left calls for the postponement of the election
Il Left group, meanwhile, asks the postponement of the election. “The European Court has ruled that the concealment of relevant information” on the Covid vaccines, which “has a significant impact on the re-election of Commission President von der Leyen. Opacity and conflicts of interest are recurring themes in her political trajectory; she has a history of scandals. When enough is enough. It should be obvious that Ms. von der Leyen withdraws her candidacy,” they point out the leaders of The Left.
Updated at 11am on Thursday 30 July 2024
