Retirement age, what the post-Covid scenario will look like

Pensions and life expectancy: what will change in the coming years? According to the report "Measures of fair and sustainable well-being of the territories", published on 6 September by Istat, in 2020 Covid interrupted the growth of life expectancy in our country (continued until 2019), recording a contraction equal to 1,2 years. The average thus fell to 82 years (79,7 for men and 84,4 for women). However, those who expect to leave their jobs earlier than expected due to the pandemic will be disappointed: this is not how it works. Let's see why.

FORNERO LAW: THE LINK BETWEEN LIFE EXPECTANCY AND RETIREMENT AGE

According to the Fornero law, the retirement age should rise by three months every two years to adjust to Istat life expectancy. The mechanism worked smoothly until 2019, that is, as long as life expectancy in Italy continued to grow. One would think that now, with life expectancy down due to the pandemic, the retirement age bar should also drop. But no.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE NEXT YEARS

The only effect - according to INPS calculations - will be to block the automatic increases until 2024. For the next three years, therefore, the age requirement will continue to be 67 years old.

In 2025, on the other hand, the retirement age will rise again with an increase of two months, which are in any case less than the three hypothesized in the pre-Covid scenario.

From 2027, however, the proportion will reverse, leading to four biennial increases of three months, i.e. one month more than estimated before the pandemic.

In any case, given the blocking of shots until 2025, between now and 2033 the retirement age will remain lower than that envisaged in the pre-Covid scenario.

In summary, the retirement age should have this progression:

• 67 years through 2024;
• 67 years and 2 months in 2025-2026;
• 67 years and 5 months in 2027-2028;
• 67 years and 8 months in 2029-2030;
• 67 years and 11 months in 2031-2032;
• 68 years and 2 months in 2033-2034.