In 2022 it will be 50 years since the Stockholm Environmental Conference of 1972. Half a century during which the planet has progressively become ill and the remedies have often been late and ineffective. In Stockholm, on that occasion, the UN drew up the first program for the environment and established June 5 as World Environment Day. All over the world debates, initiatives and mobilizations are being prepared, but «i the real effects of everything we are doing will be seen in 10, 20, 30 years» says Antonello Pasini, physicist, climatologist of the Cnr and one of the leading European experts. We interviewed him.
Professor Pasini, how widespread is awareness of the need to fight for the environment in the world?
«Although the situation may appear varied, environmental awareness is growing everywhere, as evidenced by the birth of movements that aim for our more harmonious relationship with nature. Nature is correctly perceived as the essential basis of our existence and well-being on Earth. There are, however, still obstacles to the diffusion of this vision of mutual and profound interrelationship».
For example?
«In industrialized countries, where science is generally part of the cultural basis of people, certain interests and visions of economic growth lead to underestimating or even distorting the results of climate science. In developing countries, where the most serious effects of pollution and climate change are being felt, the real causes of these situations are often not perceived by ordinary people".
2020 was a year to forget. The pandemic has hit everywhere, upset our lives, social organization. At this point, are the UN climate goals for 2030 and 2050 still valid or should they be revised?
“Absolutely they are still valid. Indeed, the pandemic should have made us understand that the post-Covid recovery must be based precisely on solving our problems of imbalance with the environment. There are common causes that drive climate change and the increase in the probability of spillover, i.e. the passage of viruses or other pathogens from wild animals to humans".
What happens in practice?
«It happens that when we go to deforest in a tropical country to make a monoculture or intensive breeding, or we extend a megalopolis in the forest, on the one hand we do harm to the climate because we remove carbon dioxide absorbers (trees), but on the On the other hand, we make spillover easier."
Climate change and pandemic appear to be two parallel dynamics on a global scale. Should we learn to manage them?
«Yes, as I showed in a recent article of mine, the dynamics of the pandemic are very similar to that of climate change. They are fast-growing, non-linear phenomena that show inertia and lag times between when we act to resolve them and when we see the results of our actions».
But for Covid the countries have mobilized. What awaits us for the climate and the environment?
"Learning from the worldwide mobilization to curb this latest emergency, it should be clearer that swift and decisive action is needed to stop global warming."
We look to Europe. On the climate, the European Union wants to achieve ambitious goals, perhaps before the others. However, there is a sense that his Green New Deal is not progressing as expected, and not just because of the pandemic. Many billions are at stake, but real effects on the climate are not seen. What do you think?
«The effects on the climate will only be seen in 10, 20, 30 years if we act decisively now, because the climate system has great inertia. The Next Generation EU is the tool to trigger this change, with a strong initial impulse and the planning of structural changes that alone can lead us to succeed in this climate battle".
Italy wants to do its part. With the energy transition, it has traced an ambitious path. Is the money that should come from the EU proportionate for a real climate transition? And isn't 2026 too close?
"It is a large amount of money but which, as already mentioned, only serves to trigger the renewal, which will then have to continue with a cascade of other changes".
Prices, for example…
"Exact. When the price of energy from renewable sources becomes much cheaper than that from fossil fuels, or when parity between the prices of an electric car and an internal combustion car is reached. In general, I believe that the importance of this money is to give a "push" to a certain way of producing energy until the change can proceed by itself».
But Italy must also grow from the point of view of greater knowledge. At one time there was talk of environmental education in school curricula. What is his judgment?
«I, who do scientific research on the one hand and dissemination on the other, always say that there is a missing link in the transfer of knowledge: teaching. To deal consciously and effectively with climate and environmental problems, literacy on complex systems is needed, and this can only be provided by school. In fact, we are used to always considering simple systems, in which a cause creates a certain effect and everything ends there».
Instead we have to broaden our horizons in different fields.
«Systems such as the climate are highly interconnected and a change, for example brought about by our actions, produces a cascade of effects that propagate throughout the system. In this context, we cannot continue to act in a mechanistic or, as Pope Francis would say, technocratic way. In a simple system if we have a hole and plug it we have solved our problem; in a complex system like the climate, if we plug a hole here, a chasm can open elsewhere. We must consider all the consequences of our actions and not try to solve a single problem because this could be to the detriment of others.
Professor Pasini, ultimately the State must also equip itself better to deal with epochal and complex issues. Combining more risks.
«We need to look for strategies that are successful on several fronts, for example, that limit climate change and the risks of a pandemic, or that act together on climate change and poverty. But to do this we must be aware of how complex systems work: this is the importance of teaching».
