On the day the news of the death of Muammar Gaddafi, Eni moves on the stock market around 16:30 up by 1,08% to 15,89 euros against a Ftse Mib down by 2,72%. Other companies with strong interests in Libya, such as Saipem (+1,83%) and Ansaldo Sts (+0,88%) are also among the best in the Ftse Mib, rebounding from the intraday lows. On the whole, however, the lists weighed down by the uncertainties on the front of the European crisis, have not reacted particularly to the news bounced on the Arab media and confirmed by the National Transitional Council. For Eni, the experts say, the good setting of the stock is also linked to the discovery of the large natural gas field in Mozambique.
THE FIELD IN MOZAMBIQUE
The new field. Located 40 kilometers off the coast of Cabo Delgado, it is the largest discovery ever made by ENI as an explorer and allows the Italian group to expand its presence in Africa. "This important discovery - writes ENI in a note - will lead to large-scale gas development, through exports to international and regional markets thanks to the use of LNG and supplies to the domestic market which will allow to support industrial and economic growth of the country".
THE POST GADHAFI
With the Gaddafi's death Libya is on its way to ending the conflicts and restoring normalcy. Something had already started to move in recent weeks thanks to the improvement in security conditions. At the end of September, Eni reactivated oil production from the Abu-Attifeel field, about 300 km south of Benghazi. In recent days, the Greenstream pipeline, which connects the Mellitah treatment plant on the western part of the Libyan coast to Gela, in Italy, was restarted after eight months of shutdown. The National Oil Corporation Libya and ENI, which collaborate through a joint venture, in fact began on 13 October the activities for the introduction of natural gas into the pipeline. The first tests concerned three million cubic meters of gas per day, produced by the Wafa field, located about 500km southeast of Tripoli in the Libyan desert, which supplies the Libyan domestic gas market for the production of electricity and which supplied the local population during the conflict.
In November, however, the restart of both gas production from the Sabratah offshore platform, located 110km from the Libyan coast in the important Bahr Essalam field, and associated treatment plants at the Mellitah terminal, is scheduled. News that supported the stock despite the market declines of the last period (+24,5% in the last month). However, uncertainty remains high for the post-rais: if the future government is not cohesive enough to give stability to the country for companies operating in Libya, the situation could even worsen. All the more so as the French and English have already put out a mortgage. “There remain some substantial factors of disagreement that could influence the timing of the transition – wrote Sace in a report that has just been released -. The tribal nature of Libyan society, the deep-rooted divisions between the Benghazi and Tripoli areas, the divergences on the political agendas of the different groups of the NTC, on representation in future institutions and on the territorial location of future ministries, and the possible hostility of opinion public relations against politicians linked to the previous establishment could jeopardize the stability of the future government". And it will still take time before we return to a situation of normality.
“Although the recovery of Libyan oil production has been faster than expected – writes Sace – there are still technical and political obstacles to overcome before returning to pre-crisis levels. The NTC has also announced that each new agreement will have to be examined by the democratically elected government, thus postponing the signing of future contracts until the consolidation of the institutional transition underway. With regard to existing contracts, already stipulated with Libyan public counterparts, the authorities have declared their intention to comply with them, however the possibility cannot be excluded that these contracts may be subject to scrutiny (in particular to ascertain any cases of corruption) before a renewal". On the economic front, it will now be important to understand the impact of the newfound availability of gas and oil in a context of very weak economic growth and therefore low demand, also in the light of take-or-pay supply contracts with countries such as Russia. Positive news has arrived from CEO Paolo Scaroni on this front: as regards the renegotiation of the "take or pay" contracts with Gazprom, a discount on the price of supplies of more than 10% is assumed, obtained by the German groups Rwe and E.On . The discount for Eni for analysts could thus reach 15% with greater flexibility in withdrawal.
THE RETAIL BOND OFFER SUCCESSFULLY CLOSED
In October, the group then successfully closed the bond offer entirely reserved for Italian savers which was increased up to the maximum total amount of 1.350 million euro to satisfy the excess demand compared to the initial target of 1 billion euro . In the meantime, on 6 October the rating agency Moody's lowered Eni's long-term rating to 'A1' (outlook negative) from the previous 'Aa3'.
