Uncertainty reigns supreme on the financial markets, which do not have great confidence in the results of the G20 which kicked off in Shanghai. But, despite a thousand difficulties, the price lists continue to recover from the crash at the beginning of the year.
Yesterday, thanks to the final rebound in oil prices (WTI at 33,02 dollars, plus 92 cents), the US stock markets closed in largely positive territory: Dow Jones +1,29%, S&P 500 +1,13% (most rise in a single session from the beginning of January). NASDAQ +0,87%. In the last nine sessions, the S&P index has recovered 6%, but still shows a fall of 5% compared to the beginning of the year.
The acceleration of crude oil came after the declarations of the Venezuelan oil minister on the imminent opening of a conference between producing countries: the aim of the summit will be to stabilize the market.
Capital goods firms stood out above all on the stock market, rallying on the day of the publication of much higher than expected data relating to the collection of durable goods orders.
CHINA GUARANTEES: WE WILL NOT GO INTO RECESSION
Positive price lists also in Asia. The Shanghai Stock Exchange recovers some positions after yesterday's crash (-6,4%). Tokyo, after a free-range start (+2,1%) slows down the race but maintains a gain of one percentage point.
The governor of the central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, receiving his guests, reiterated that China still has the tools to avoid recession and devaluation of the yuan, which was still down this morning (-0,03% at fixing). Among the improper weapons is censorship: a journalist, reveals the New York Times, was fined 23 dollars for revealing that a financial company had suggested to the most important clients to lighten their positions.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble, speaking in China, warned the authorities about the risks of a currency war, yet another sign of the deterioration of the situation. The problem is particularly felt in Japan, where the yen continues its run (+5% since January 29), despite the decision to introduce negative rates. The umpteenth drop in inflation weighs heavily, plummeting to zero from +0,2% at the end of the year.
EUROPE IN RALLY, TODAY AN ATTEMPT OF THE ENOUGH
Yesterday was a day of recovery for the European stock exchanges, despite the uncertain start of oil prices. Madrid (+2,5%) and Milan (+2,3%) lead the recovery, ahead of Paris (+2,1%) and Frankfurt (+1,7%). London (+2,54%) deserves a note: equity gains are supported by the pound steadily declining after the announcement of the Brexit referendum: the British currency is below 1,40 against the dollar as it has not happened since 2009.
Futures on stock markets anticipate an upward start: London +42bp, Paris +32bp, Frankfurt +80bp.
The tones are raised in anticipation of the directorate of the ECB on 10 March. The decline in expected inflation (the 10-year inflation swap fell below 1% yesterday) imposes on Mario Draghi the obligation of a new monetary easing. But the "hawks" raise the bar, supported by the sentiment of the German Parliament: the Bundestag yesterday pronounced itself against the institution of the single guarantee on deposits.
NEW BTP 10 AT AUCTION. SIX-MONTH BOTS STILL NEGATIVE
The tensions did not prevent the positive outcome of the BOT auction: 6,25 billion six-month bonds were placed at an average rate of -0,042%, still in negative territory, albeit up on the -0,08% at the end January.
However, the key appointment of the week remains today's medium-long term placement, with an offer of up to 8,25 billion concentrated above all on the new 3,5-year auction at auction for 4/2026 billion. The June 1,60 BTP with a 1,55% coupon is indicated on the MTS gray market at a yield in the XNUMX% area.
ENI, WEAK ACCOUNTS BUT DIVIDEND CONFIRMED
Eni's accounts are worse than expected (yesterday +2,6%). 2015 closed with a decrease in adjusted operating profit on a standalone basis of 4,1 billion (-64% compared to 2014) and an adjusted net result of 340 million, down by 91% compared to the previous year with a loss of approximately 700 million not on a standalone basis. 2015 closed with a net group loss of 8,82 billion from a profit of 1,29 billion last year. In the fourth quarter, the adjusted operating result decreased by 0,64% to 860 million and the adjusted net result showed a loss of 200 million. The overall group red in the quarter is 8,46 billion. The results are less than the consensus. In strong growth, however, the production of hydrocarbons which recorded a leap of 10%. The title flies to the Stock Exchange and at 10,10 salt by 4,3% at 12,61 euros. Eni also announced that it has drilled a new well in Egypt ("Nidoco North 1X") from which a production of 45.000 barrels is expected by the end of March (60.000 by mid-2016).
However, the six-legged dog confirmed the dividend at 0,80 euro (of which 0,40 already paid in September as an advance). The dividend yield is equal to 6,7%.
The CEO Claudio Descalzi underlined that “the plans for streamlining and rationalizing expenses have recorded better results than expected, so as to allow the self-financing of the 2015 capex in a scenario of around 50 $/bl, 13 $/bl in less than expected a year ago. These efficiency actions have not compromised, neither in the short nor in the medium term, Eni's growth, which has indeed been exceptional and distinctive in the market. In the E&P sector, production grew by 10% and both exploration reserves and proved reserves recorded high growth, demonstrating the quality of our portfolio".
Weak Tenaris (+0,1%) and Saipem (-1,4%) who yesterday announced lower than expected results and face difficult scenarios.
On Wall Street, oil companies, and energy sector companies in general, moved little, Chevron was the worst blue chip with an increase of 0,1%. The acceleration of crude oil came after the declarations of the Venezuelan oil minister on the imminent opening of a conference between producing countries: the aim of the summit will be to stabilize the market.
Halliburton closed slightly lower after announcing an 8% cut in its workforce, down 5.000 after the 4000 it announced at its quarterly data release.
Among the electric utilities, Enel did well (+2,7%). SocGen analysts confirmed the Buy judgment, while cutting the target price to 4,15 euros from the previous 4,8 euros. Terna +2,6%, Snam +1,8%.
BANKS IN RECOVERY. LLOYD BOOMS +13%
The banks were driving the rise throughout Europe, galvanized by the good results of the English Lloyd Banking Group which sealed the session with a leap of 13%. The Stoxx European sector index rose by 3,2%. The Italian Stoxx rises by only 1,76%.
The pressing of the Bundesbank to introduce limits on the possession of government bonds by the banks of the various countries weighs heavily. If the proposal passes, explains a research by Bernstein, the top 27 European banks (especially the Italian and Spanish ones) would have to sell securities for 360 billion. According to the study, the obligation would lead to a drop in profits of 5% for Unicredit, 3% for Intesa and 2% for Banco de Santander.
In Milan Unicredit rose yesterday by 2,3%, Intesa +1,7%. Among cooperative banks, Pop.Emilia +2,4%, Ubi +2,4%. More modest was the performance of Monte Paschi +0,5%.
Banco Popolare closes down (-1,9%). In the meantime, the work for the merger with Bpm is proceeding. The last knots remain to be resolved, with particular regard to the issue of capital and the management of non-performing loans. At the end of 2015, Banco Popolare's gross non-performing loans amounted to 20,6 billion with an overall coverage of 31,9% and those of Bpm to approximately 6 billion with a coverage of 39,6%.
Positive day for Generali (+2%), also due to the driving effect of the Axa accounts (+2,7%). The results of the Leone company in Italy in 2015 were very positive, said Philippe Donnet, the managing director of the Italy area, yesterday during the convention of Alleanza agents held in Genoa. Donnet spoke of premium income exceeding 4,5 billion euro, new business has reached historic levels of over two billion euro, with good results in both the Life and Non-Life business.
TELECOM SUPERSTAR THANKS TO ARGENTINA
Throughout Europe, coinciding with the accounts of Deutsche Telekom, the securities of the telecommunications companies moved well. Telecom Italia achieved a rise of 4,2%. Next week, the Argentine telecommunications authority could give the green light to Fintech's acquisition of control over Telecom Argentina after last October it instead expressed a contrary opinion under pressure from former president Cristuna Kirchner.
In November 2013, Telecom had already entered into agreements for the transfer of its shares (held indirectly through holding companies), valued at 960 million dollars. Part of this amount has already been collected, the remaining proceeds are estimated to be worth approximately $380 million.
Meanwhile, the investment company LetterOne, controlled by the Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman, has announced that it cannot continue with the plan to facilitate a merger between the Brazilian companies Oi and TIM Participações, since the Telecom Italia subsidiary has communicated that it does not want to investigate the negotiations.
Mediaset made a big splash (+5,2%) after yesterday's drop and in the wake of the results of Mediaset Espana, which this morning announced that it will allocate 100% of its profits to the dividend.
FCA STARTS AGAIN. REPAIR OF AN AXLE WITH PEUGEOT
Fiat Chrysler rebounded by 4,1% also driven by Fiat's declarations made yesterday by Peugeot's number one Carlos Tavares: "If the opportunity arises, we are open to discussions with other manufacturers". There has been talk of a possible agreement between FCA and the Parisian house for some time, given the geographical complementarity of the areas of influence: the Italian-American group is strong in the two Americas, Peugeot in China and in the Middle East (see Iran). Cnh Industrial +4,6%.
Worth noting is Prysmian: +3,6% after announcing its 2015 results, closed with an adjusted net profit up by 86,2%. Adjusted EBITDA up 22,6% in the high end of the guidance. The dividend is stable at €0,42 per share. Kepler-Cheuvreux reiterated the Buy judgment. Target price lowered to 22 euros from 23 .
StM +1,6%: Moody's cut its rating to 'junk', bringing it to 'Ba1' from 'Baa3', with a stable outlook.
The leap of Prelios should be noted: +29% after the confirmation of a consortium interested in acquiring the 21%. Purchases also for Tamburi which rises by 6%.
