The Covid emergency has brought down electricity consumption, consequently increasing the share of energy produced from renewable sources. From a decarbonisation perspective, this would be good news, were it not for the fact that the system is not said to be fully adequate to these changes. An acceleration of energy transformation is underway but plants, networks and storage could be put under stress by unexpected peaks in summer consumption, after the Covid-emergency "diet". And then there is also the problem of the plan to close coal-fired plants within five years. These issues were mainly addressed by theIREX Annual Report 2020, packaged as every year by Althesys, think tank of the energy world. The analysis focused on the Italian market, even if it did not fail to also offer a comparison with other European realities, to understand where we are compared to other countries.
The continental context, underlines the Report, is now that of an accelerated transformation: the twenty largest European utilities have increased renewable capacity by 29% in a decade and initiated plans to phase out coal. Italy is at the forefront of this step: the Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) provides for say goodbye to coal in 2025, much earlier than Germany (2038) and Spain (2030), while France, while foreseeing a closer phase out (2022), is grappling with the long and complex management of nuclear power plants.
Italy – he commented Alessandro Marangoni, CEO of Althesys, head of the research team – is at the forefront of the race to decarbonise the energy system, with a plan to close coal-fired plants within five years, but several questions remain open that the energy system is called to face. First of all that of generation plants, networks and accumulations, for which an authorization release is required in order to accelerate projects. We need effective price signals to help those who invest in renewables and for make the electricity system flexible".
In short, the system is proceeding at full speed towards the production of green energy, but already from 2021 could record critical short-term adequacy issues, especially in the summer, in the event of significant peaks, which cannot be guaranteed by the thermoelectric plants supported by the capacity market before 2022. According to Althesys, despite the health emergency showing a reliable electrical system, flexible net of the drastic reduction in loads between March, April and May (the historic minimum of 13 GW was reached on 17 April), the Italian system could have a capacity deficit in the summer period, against a peak in demand for 63GW.
Decarbonisation therefore requires not only insisting on renewables but strengthen the network infrastructure and develop storage, both battery and pumped hydro. It is no coincidence that over the next 20 years more than a third of investments in the electricity sector throughout Europe will be aimed precisely at networks, for an amount of approximately 1.100 billion euros. To which must be added the investments in thermal renewables of the future, i.e biomethane, P2G and hydrogen, which will be able to make a contribution to decarbonisation both by entering the network and by promoting sustainable mobility.
Italy has confirmed the targets for renewables at 30% (55% electrical, 33,9% thermal). The Italian PNIEC favors photovoltaics, with complexity for the security of the system and for the price signals given to the market. In fact, solar energy is a poorly programmable and irregular source of energy according to the seasons, the weather and the time of day. Confirmation of the preference for energy produced by the sun also came from a study by the GSE relating to 2019, from which it emerges that every 10 "green" kWh, 2 come from the sun. With 58 new photovoltaic systems installed, for 750 MW of power, last year Italy recorded almost double growth compared to the 400 MW of previous years, also linked to some large installations in the South. However, if you look at the total number, almost 30% of all plants are located in the North, in Lombardy and Veneto.
And the other countries? The Althesys Irex Annual Report makes a few hints. Spain for example is more ambitious for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix: the Plan Nacional Integrado de Energía y Clima 2021-2030 foresees the phase-out of coal in 2030, which places the Iberian country among the first in the world, with its 42,1% from non-programmable sources and 85% renewable electricity. There France aims to reduce the share of primary consumption covered by nuclear power to 44%, and aims for a contribution from renewables of 33%. The plan of the Germany, delivered to Brussels just a few days ago, however highlights how the country started late, due to internal disputes over the abandonment of coal, which still covers over 30% of capacity. The objectives for 2030 envisage a use of electric RES of 65% and for thermal renewables of 27%.
