The recovery of the Italian economy is reflected in the national energy scenario with the increase (+1,6%) of final energy consumption in the first six months of 2017; however, this growth also produced an increase in carbon dioxide emissions (+1,9%) with the consequent slowdown in the decarbonisation process. This is highlighted by the quarterly analysis of the Italian energy system edited by ENEA, which identifies among the causes of the increase in emissions factors of a cyclical nature such as the reduced rainfall which has greatly reduced the contribution of hydroelectricity.
For the entire renewables sector, the Analysis shows a decrease of 7% for the second quarter, with the result that at the end of 2017, for the first time in several years, the share of these sources in the energy mix could stop its growth. The analysis also shows a further decline in solid fuels (-9%) and oil (-1%) and a new significant increase in both consumption (+11% compared to the same period of 2016) and imports of natural gas (+ 10% in the first half of 2017). This increase, together with the constant and structural decrease in national production, causes that at the end of the year, our dependence on foreign gas could exceed 92%, a new record, with a return to historical highs of the weight of gas on total primary energy (38%).
“These factors have led to a further deterioration in the ISPRED index which measures the trend of security, prices and decarbonization in our country. If in the first quarter of 2017 we recorded a 10% drop in the index on an annual basis, we are now at -17%, with -4% compared to the previous quarter”, explains Francesco Gracceva, the ENEA expert who coordinated the Analysis.
“The new deterioration is linked in particular to the increase in emissions, the third consecutive after +5% in the fourth quarter of 2016 and +2,5% in the first quarter of 2017. In this scenario, the European greenhouse gas reduction targets at 2020 are still within reach, but the change in the decarbonization trajectory starting from 2015 makes achieving the 2030 goals more difficult", concludes Gracceva.
Specifically, the ISPRED index signals a worsening on the safety side of both the electricity and gas system indicators, in a scenario that in recent years has seen some past weaknesses re-emerge. On the price side, the Index shows a deterioration of 14% mainly due to the price of diesel which, although decreasing, is the most expensive in the entire EU ("negative primacy" in condominium with Sweden and linked to the decrease in taxation in other member countries). At the same time, electricity prices for small businesses increased (+1,3% in the second quarter with an estimate of +3,7% in the third quarter of 2017) and gas prices for small users (+9% in the I semester).
