From January 2022 to January 2023 Russian revenues from Petroleum and gas are down 38%. In the same period, the demand for Russian gas in Europe collapsed, the sale of heat pumps soared by 40%. What about electric cars? In 2019 they were only 3%, now they make up 15% of the market and in 2030 in Europe, the USA and China one in two cars will be electric. "China produces 75% of batteries, but this could drop to 55% in favor of other countries, such as India and the USA". These are some of the data contained in the World Energy Outlook presented in the Sala Capitolare Cloister of the Convent of Santa Maria sopra Minerva in Rome during an event organized by Enel.
"But Europe is better off than we would have hoped” said the director of the IEA, Fatih Birol, despite the process of reducing energy dependence on gas "it will take time, but the hard core will take place between now and 2030, he predicted Francesco Starace, CEO of Enel.
Starace: "The acceleration on renewables will continue"
On the 2030 agenda "we are perfectly in line, many countries think they are more in line than they are, we will look back and see that the 2022 has been a very special year“, says Francesco Starace, CEO of Enel,
“The process of reducing energy dependence on gas” is a process that it will take some time, but the hard core of the reductions will take place between now and 2030, the rest will be a queue”, said Francesco Starace. “Let's imagine the gas – he added – as a living being, if it behaves well perhaps it will be able to live a little longer. If he behaves like a madman his disappearance will be hastened ”. Also, said the manager “if he stays there 5% of the gas to respond to certain moments of supply crisis, it is in any case 5%, different from 100%”.
It must be considered that in the gas "the reduction will be progressive” and that “the idea of turning off the plants is something that scares”. In the face of all this, "the acceleration on renewables can only continue".
According to Starace he also spoke of thehydrogen, explaining that "in terms of carbon footprint, it costs a lot, we always hear about this hydrogen, but first of all we need to replace the current hydrogen"."It is important to understand that hydrogen is very precious" and it is necessary "in 3-5 years reduce the price of hydrogen e replace it with green hydrogen, this would allow us to reduce current carbon emissions,” he concluded.
Birol: "Europe is better than expected, but watch out for next winter"
"Europe compared to what we thought is much better off than we would have ever hoped, but we must not rest on our laurels". This was stated by Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, at the World Energy outlook 2022, speaking of the energy crisis triggered by Russia's war in Ukraine. Although all European states have shown that they know how to react and have successfully overcome the last few months, we must not let our guard down because “Next winter could prove more difficult“, Birol added.
“This year we benefited from two factors: the good weather and the fact that the China, one of the largest gas importers in the world, has put a lot of gas on the market that Europe has been able to buy”, he explained, underlining however that “the situation could change” because China is recovering and will use brute force to buy the gas that was available on the market”.
Birol: "Accelerate the transition to clean energy, nuclear power is making a comeback".
Birol has no doubts: “We are accelerating towards clean energy, already in an expansion phase”. Furthermore, also thanks to climate concerns, "we will have an acceleration in five years' time like the one seen in the last 20 years". But there's more: according to the director of the IEA, "nuclear energy is making a comeback, many countries are changing policies, such as Japan, Korea, Sweden, Canada”. In conclusion, "when we think of 2022, we can only tell ourselves that 2022 was the year in which the transition to clean energy underwent a real positive turn".
And, in this context, where does Russia fit? “We all think that Russia has been a great source of energy for Europe, but the opposite is also true. For Russia, Europe was the most important customer for oil and gas. If the customer is lost overnight, this is a problem", highlighted Birol, according to whom another important factor must be considered: "Russian gas fields are complex, very advanced technologies are needed and in large numbers in order to favor an increase of the production. If technologies are not applied systematically, production could only decrease. Even if Russia finds customers, it would be difficult to keep production at the same level. Also, many international companies, suppliers of the technology, have abandoned the country”. “Russia – he added – it was a cornerstone of the system global energy, its role can only be seen resized in the next years".
Pichetto Fratin: "Italy leads the way on renewables"
“Until recently the question was whether there will be a winter blackout from excess gas use now the theme is how we will do in July“, said Environment Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin.
The minister recalled the weight of hydroelectricity in our energy. In this context, "the current picture of the basins we have is no longer comforting". Accepting the solicitations of the IEA, Pichetto Fratin underlines that "we can and must obtain a role of pace also on renewables that are growing".
