In 2019, before the pandemic and the war, the North-East recorded a net loss of almost 14 Italians which they chose to moving abroad. In return 32 thousand people have arrived from the rest of Italy and 46 thousand foreigners from abroad. So, there was a net gain of 64 thousand individuals between cross-border and interregional flows. Of which 56% in favor ofEmilia Romagna, proof of a greater attractiveness of this region. The ratio between the total balance of the latter and that of Veneto is almost 4 to 2.
This ability to attract and retain is even more evident when referring to young people aged 25-34 diplomats and graduates, i.e. the most difficult people for companies to find and retain: Emilia Romagna e Lombardia they are the only regions in Italy which, thanks to a very positive interregional balance, manage to more than offsetting the outflow of young Italian talents abroad, so as to earn respectively more than 50 thousand and more than 70 thousand in the decade 2008-2017 (the latest available). Often the decision to relocate coincides with the start of university courses, when universities located in territories that offer greater employment opportunities in the future and in the present better quality of life, which is itself educational, are more popular: also in this case the Triveneto loses young people, while Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy acquire them.
In the opinion of Triveneto entrepreneurs, the greatest attraction of Emilia-Romagna is linked to both characteristics of the entrepreneurial system – better known brands (54,6%) and larger companies (40%) – both at choices of the territorial university and administrative system, who have launched attractive projects for young people (52,1%). While higher salaries or the greater demand for graduates are considered insignificant.
In reality, these two elements are objective. The wage differential is equal to 10% in favor of the workers of the Emilian industries compared to those of the Veneto, while the greater demand for qualified profiles can be deduced from the occupational composition: the share of graduates out of the total number of employees is equal to 25,5% in Emilia-Romagna against 21,6% in Veneto. These elements contribute, together with the best prospects for professional growth (projects and systems for the development and transformation of the entrepreneurial system, presence of well-known and well-represented companies), to attract a greater number of qualified young people.
This obliges the other territories of the North-East to question themselves on their ability to create a system and know how to tell and make known the excellences. Thus learning the lesson of Emilia Romagna and teaming up with this Region to support the development capacity of the entire North-East and, therefore, of the entire country, human capital being the first and main resource for growth in the economy and in the knowledge society. In the next Note from the FNE we will calculate the cost and gain in human capital of the location choices of young and less young people.
Emilia-Romagna is more attractive than the other northeastern regions
The lack of candidates noted by the North-Eastern companies and documented in the previous Notes by the FNE can in part be mitigated by the attractiveness of the regions both in bringing people from outside and in retaining those who are already present in the area. The migratory balances of the North-East have a positive sign both with foreign countries and with the other macro-areas (Table 1). However, it is clear that Emilia-Romagna is more capable of attracting people, above all from other Italian regions, managing to achieve 56% of the northeastern balance, against the Veneto which, on the other hand, acquires a little more than half of it, even with a population 10% higher. Even in terms of the loss of Italian residents due to moving abroad, the haemorrhage is double in Veneto compared to Emilia-Romagna, which demonstrates even more the greater capacity of this territory in retaining its residents. To a lesser extent, the comparison also applies to Friuli-Venezia Giulia e Trentino Alto Adige, which record overall positive migratory balances of 4,3 and 4,5 thousand respectively, but with exodus of 1,8 and 2,3 thousand, very high in proportion to the inhabitants.
Regional differences are even more evident for educated young people
However, this is not a new figure referring only to 2019. In fact, focusing the analysis on a longer period (2008-2017) and with a focus on age class 20-34 for the population with medium-high educational qualifications, two regions in Italy show a significant capacity of attraction: Lombardia and once again theEmilia Romagna (Figure 1). In fact, although in the period considered both recorded a reduction of young people in favor of foreign countries, this is not such as to negatively affect the overall balance which remains largely positive (over 70 units in the former and around 50 in the latter), thanks to interregional flows which are both positive for over 50 thousand units. As for the regions of the Triveneto, conversely, the overall balance is almost nil due to slightly negative migratory balances compared to equally insignificant positive interregional balances.
This greater attractiveness is already evident in the development phase University enrollment. In fact, the migratory balances for registered people are positive in Emilia Romagna (+25 thousand), while they are negative for Veneto (-12 thousand), Trentino Alto Adige (-6mia) e Friuli-Venezia Giulia (-2 thousand).
The reasons that lead to choosing a different region as a place of study, a choice which according to Istat research then heralds a definitive transfer, are many but attributable, in addition to the specific educational reason, generally to two main elements:
- that of investment, such as, for example better future employment opportunities;
- that of consumption: living, for example, in a city that guarantees, through its broadly understood infrastructures, one better quality of life.
The reasons for the gap, seen by entrepreneurs from Triveneto…
Before analyzing the available statistical data that can verify the hypothesis of greater job and life opportunities in Emilia-Romagna compared to the other northeastern regions, it is interesting to observe how the entrepreneurs of the Triveneto, interviewed by the North East Foundation, actually recognize the characteristics and situations of Emilia-Romagna - a region similar to those of the Triveneto area in terms of history and development model, within the so-called Third Italy - which actually make it more attractive (although a number of entrepreneurs interviewed did not know/want to express a judgment or rather an evaluation).
In the opinion of the panel of companies, two elements are significant in designing a more favorable situation for Emilia-Romagna (Table 2): specifically, 54,6% strongly or fairly agree on the fact that the greater attractiveness is linked to presence of companies with more well-known brands (Maserati, Ducati, Ferrari, Barilla, Bluemarine, Liu-jo,…), while 52,1% believe that it depends on the ability of the Region to develop projects attractive to young people (think Data Valley or Motor Valley). A further 40% of those interviewed believe that even the larger size of the Emilia-Romagna companies is a factor capable of acting positively with respect to the choice of young people to move to this region, just as the presence of a large city like Bologna which offers more leisure opportunities and activities.
One company out of two does not comment on the possible positive or negative influence of both the greater demand for graduates and the higher level of salaries in Emilian companies. In both cases, however, the remaining 50% of the panel leans slightly towards a non-influence of these elements.
…and through statistical evidence
In terms of available statistics, the first data confirming the greater employment prospects for highly educated people are those relating to the composition of employees. Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy (the other particularly attractive region) show, compared to Triveneto, and Veneto in particular, higher values of employed people (Table 3):
- with a tertiary degree,
- with a degree and employed in technical-scientific professions,
- with complex digital skills for the 20-64 age group.
These three parameters seem to highlight how some regions have an economic-productive system that is more receptive and more in need of high skills and therefore more attractive towards them.
Another figure that seems to confirm that the greater attractiveness is linked to the expectation of better employment prospects for graduates in Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy is the pay gap between graduates and graduates, calculated on hourly wages, which is equal to 27,1. 18,1% in the Lombardy region, 14,8% in Trentino-Alto Adige and only 12,2% in Veneto and 16,1% in Trento. In Emilia-Romagna it stops at 4%, in any case higher than the Veneto figure (Table XNUMX).
Indeed the salary advantage of the most attractive regions is also confirmed in the general comparison of average wages per employee, also considering the different characteristics of the local units (Table 5).
Comparing in particular the Veneto data with those of Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna reveals a very broad advantage of the former and a slightly more limited advantage in the latter, with the exception of what occurs for the largest companies and for service activities.
If on the front of better employment prospects the above highlighted confirms a better context for Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy, the data on quality of life are, instead, more controversial and they are not easily found by age group; this allows us to understand if and how much this element is able to determine a greater capacity of attraction. The rankings on the quality of life in the Italian provinces find many provinces of the North East at the top, just as Milan and Bologna are always classified in the top ten positions and many provinces of Lombardy and Emilia are at the top and improving. However, one would have to ask which specific factors are able to attract the most in different age groups and in the different phases of life: probably greater employment and career prospects, as well as greater opportunities for aggregation are more significant for the youngest, likewise the family care services, the natural beauty of the places are more relevant for the intermediate classes , while the presence of hospitals is for older people and so on.
However, a general reflection can be made starting from theIses index, constructed by the North East Foundation for the Italian provinces considering both social and economic well-being indicators, which shows very similar data regarding the regions considered here, as seen in figure 3.
This synthetic index, which unites the level of well-being and development in the five regions considered, allows us to ask questions which the available data alone cannot answer and which deserve further qualitative analysis. For example, how much the level of attractiveness depends on the ability of a territory to tell its story through its businesses and their competitive, ethical, social, welfare, attention to young people and culture choices, or still depends on the ability to plan, implement and present system policies and actions that are the manifestation of the development paths chosen with clear and verifiable objectives in terms of employment, youth involvement, and so on. As the same entrepreneurs from Triveneto have confirmed.
