The data speak for themselves: the Bull has decided that this year he intends to winter in the East, reassured among other things by the strict vigilance against the pandemic guaranteed by the authorities. Today, for example, after the discovery of the first positive case after 89 days, that of a flight attendant of the national airline, Vietnam has quarantined the airports of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Many precautions pay off, even on the stock market front. Today, under the impetus of the recovery in manufacturing activity (the Caixin index at a ten-year high) theShanghai Blue Chips Index +2,15% had the best day since October 12th. Financials did even better +2,83% confirming that the rally is not just about consumption, but is also involving the sectors most exposed to the strain of debts which, however, must be followed with the utmost prudence: this morning it emerged that about seventy banks and financial institutions were involved in the 5 billion dollar default of the Huanchen group, the Chinese branch of BMW.
It does even better the Seoul Stock Exchange. Also in this case, South Korea's excellent resistance to the pandemic (526 victims overall out of a population comparable to Italy's) has allowed the continent's fourth largest economy to limit the damage. Indeed, GDP growth has been adjusted upwards (+2,1% against a first estimate of 1,9%) with the prospect of a strong acceleration to 3,8% next year. The Kospi index +27% only partially reflects the fortunes of Samsung's chips (+45% in the last six months).
But China and South Korea are already known and well-attended stops by operators who intend to take advantage of the prospect of the recovery of world trade after Covid-19. There are less traveled markets that could guarantee moderate satisfaction. If at the moment of maximum tension between the US and China (still very much alive) the multinationals have discovered the Vietnam to circumvent duties, today theIndonesia, chosen by Chinese groups as an alternative to India which has closed the doors to Beijing's investments. During 2020, China increased its penetration in the country by 55 percent thanks to Shunwei, a subsidiary of Xiaomi, and BaCE, controlled by Ant Group, Jack Ma's Fintech company. And a trip to the East cannot include Singapore or Malaysia, yesterday the most effervescent Stock Exchange.
Even more interesting it is take advantage of the declining dollar which should continue for a good part of next year. In recent weeks, also thanks to the oil boom, those who have bet on have been right ruble (+4,2% in November), while Biden's victory gave wings to the mexican peso. The index Bovespa of the Brazilian stock exchange exceeded the threshold of 110 points for the first time since the end of February. From the minimum point of last March it has achieved a powerful rebound in the order of 80%, eliminating the losses since January XNUMXst.
Too bad, however, that in the meantime the Real has devalued a lot against the main world currencies. But, thanks to the recovery of emerging currencies, the prospects are looking good from this point of view as well. Even the Turkey, after the recent devaluation, can be a good Christmas bet.
