The numbers are not yet definitive, but at this point it seems clear that there will be no majority in the Senate. Two elements determine the stalemate: the boom of the 5 Star Movement and the sensational recovery of the centre-right. Turnout was 75,2%, down nearly five points from the 2008 general election.
According to the fifth projection made by Piepoli for Rai (76% sample coverage), the coalitions led by Pdl and Pd are both at 30,7%, while M5S is at 24,5%, the Monti coalition at 9,5%. % and Civil Revolution at 1,8%.
As regards the real data released by the Viminale around 20 pm (44.289 sections scrutinized out of 60.431), the centre-left stands at 32,31%, the centre-right at 29,94%, the Movimento 5 Stelle at 23,89%, the Monti at 9,18% and Civil Revolution at 1,80%.
However, the advantage of the centre-left is only illusory, because the mechanism of the electoral law (the much reviled but never modified "Porcellum") provides for a particular distribution of seats on a regional basis for the Senate, with majority bonuses region by region.
The latest data would assign 104 seats to the centre-left, 123 to the centre-right, 57 to the Movimento 5 Stelle, 17 to the Montiani and zero to Antonio Ingroia's party. No coalition therefore reaches an absolute majority, which is obtained only with 158 seats. And considering that the grillini are not willing to ally themselves with any of the traditional parties, there is no possibility of creating a line-up capable of governing.
