Here we are. On Tuesday, November 3, Americans vote to elect who will be the 46th president of the United States. The choice is between the Republican and the outgoing president Donald Trump and the Democratic candidate Joe Biden. A vote that could radically change the vision and substance of what the US is and has been in the last four years and change the world balance created by the muscular management of international politics carried out by the White House under Trump.
A victory by Joe Biden, who is the favorite according to the polls, could wipe out the structure established by the Tycoon from 2016 to today, a second term for Trump could instead pave the way for another four years of turmoil, extraordinary crises and global frictions. What is certain is that in both cases, the whole world will be influenced by what will happen on November 3 in the 50 US states and in the District of Columbia.
THE CONTEXT
The US elections come in a year that will be remembered in the history books due to a pandemic that has shocked the world, with the United States leading the global rankings regarding the number of infections (in the US 9.207.364 according to data updated to 2 November) and deaths from Covid-19 (over 230 thousand).
As with any extraordinary event, analysts are still uncertain about the iimpact that the coronavirus has had on votingHowever, there are three aspects to take into consideration in order to try to understand at least in part the potential consequences of the pandemic on the American elections. The first is that, according to polls, 65% of Americans did not appreciate the way Trump handled the emergency; the second is that in percentage terms in the United States - now in the third wave while Europe faces the second - 3% of the population has contracted the virus (in Italy, currently, we are just over 1%, so to speak) . The third consideration to make concerns the diametrically opposite approach that Trump and Biden have had and continue to have towards the pandemic. The tenant of the White House has always tried to minimize the data, denied for many months the importance of the mask, made promises about the vaccine that he didn't keep ("it will arrive before the elections"), he even attacked doctors and virologists while the US recorded yet another record of infections ("they make more money if someone dies of Covid", he said). The former vice president, on the other hand, has always called for prudence, respect for the rules, making fun of his rival and focusing the electoral campaign precisely on the mistakes made by Trump in managing the Covid-19 emergency. Two opposing views that have also been revealed in the last few rallies: crowds (often without a mask) for the Republicans, online rallies closed to the public for the Democrats.
But 2020 in the US was not only "the year of Covid-19". From a commercial point of view, the companies are still the masters tensions with China, which Trump has taken to a level never seen before amid continuous sanctions and bans, Sull'economy, which has always been the main theme for Trump, the sharp drop in GDP in the second quarter (-31,4%), it was recovered in the third (+33,1%), even if compared to the end of 2019, the American GDP remains down by around 3,5 percentage points.
From a social point of view, however, the scene was dominated by the Black Lives Matter, with protests in all the main cities of the United States and the multiplication of armed far-right militias and radical left-wing groups (those Trump defines as “antifa”) that have set fire to many territories, showing a radicalization never seen before in what calls itself the "first world democracy".
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US ELECTIONS: WHAT YOU VOTE FOR
The November 3 elections do not only concern the presidency, but many other consultations are held, more or less important, which could affect the new president's margin of action, regardless of the victory of Biden or Trump. On Tuesday, for example, we also vote for renew the 435 deputies of the Chamber (controlled today by the Democrats) and to elect 33 of the 100 representatives of the Senate (in the hands of the Republicans). 11 states (Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington state and West Virginia) vote to elect their governors, while another vote will concern the renewal of 86 of the 99 chambers state laws. In 35 states the polls are going to the polls to renew part of the seats in the state Supreme Courts, the highest local courts in the American system, and many large cities are called upon to elect the new mayor. Finally, 129 referendums were called.
US ELECTIONS: HOW TO VOTE
The Americans do not directly elect the President of the United States, but according to the US electoral system, they choose 538 electors, who in turn will elect the new occupant of the White House in mid-December. The candidate who obtains at least 270 votes from the electorate will become president. However, this is a formality: the big voters always vote for the candidate they have promised to support.
Each state has a different number of electors which varies according to population. For example, the largest states, such as California and Texas, each have 55 and 38 electors. Wyoiming, which has 600 inhabitants, has only 3.
In almost all federal states to win the elections and therefore to conquer all the electors up for grabs is the candidate who obtains the highest number of votes. So it doesn't matter if the victory percentage is 50,1% or 99,9%, in any case all the big voters in that state will go to this or that candidate. However, there are two exceptions: Maine (4 large electors) and Nebraska (5) which have a different electoral system. In both, two major electors are assigned to the candidate with the most votes at the state level, the others (2 for Maine, 3 for Nebraska), instead go to whoever gets the most votes in the electoral districts that make up the state.
US ELECTIONS: THE STATES IN THE POOL AND THE LATEST POLLS
All the polls seen so far unanimously agree in giving Joe Biden a very large lead on a national scale. According to the latest surveys of the Wall Street Journal and nbc for example, within hours of voting the Democratic candidate would an advantage of about 10 percentage points. There are 8,5% points of advantage for Biden second FiveThirtyEight.
So, has everything already been decided? No way. In 2016 Hillary Clinton obtained 3 million more votes than Trump, but still failed to have the presidency precisely because it is not the national data that counts, but the votes cast on a majority basis by the individual states (where, we recall, it does not matter the percentages of victory or defeat, but only the final data)
To decide the result of the US elections will therefore be those that are commonly definitive Swing States, States in the balance, and it is precisely on these states that the surveys indicate that Trump, although still lagging behind, has however recovered ground.
For The Washington Post Trump is ahead in Florida (29 major voters), albeit with an advantage within the margin of error in the polls. For the New York Times instead Biden is ahead in Arizona (11 electors), Florida, Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10), four states where Trump won in 2016 against Clinton.
Below is a table of the surveys referring to Biden's advantage/disadvantage as of November 1 carried out by the famous polling site fivethiryeight.com.
As suggested by the deputy director of The Post and US expert, Francesco Costa, making a quick calculation to become president Biden will need to win in all the states where the Democrats prevailed in 2016 plus Michigan and Wisconsin and one state between Arizona, Nebraska and Pennsylvania. Alternatively, a more difficult mission, the Democratic candidate will have to make it through to one of the traditional Republican strongholds (Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia or Florida). Trump, for his part, will have to try to confirm the result of four years ago everywhere, losing only one of the smallest states. An undertaking which however, given the surveys, appears increasingly difficult – but not impossible – to achieve.
A mention of the polls on the House and Senate: according to the latest surveys, the Democrats should retain the majority of the House and could also win it in the Senate.
US ELECTIONS: VOTING BY MAIL
November 3 is defined as the day of the American elections. Actually, Tuesday is the day the US election ends, given that more than 90 million voters had already voted by post or by advance voting before this date. According to estimates, 3-30% of voters will go to the polls on 50 November.
And this is one of the issues that most concern public opinion. According to forecasts, there will be a record number of mail-in votes this year due to the coronavirus pandemic. Many Americans, especially the youngest between the ages of 18 and 29, have preferred to vote from home, avoiding standing in line for long hours at the polling stations, risking being infected. According to estimates, a larger turnout (possible thanks to postal voting) should favor the Democrats and for this very reason Trump has tried to oppose postal voting in every possible way, repeatedly declaring, but without any proof, that he believes it “a huge scam”. Not only. The fear is that, if Biden wins, Trump decides not to acknowledge defeat denouncing fraud and irregularities and pushing for a recount of ballots in states where the gap between the two candidates is narrower.
Also affecting will be the fact that voting by mail extends the time necessary for counting, also because the methods of counting votes vary from one State to another. It is no coincidence that legal battles (won by the Democrats) involving the Supreme Court are already underway over the timing of the postal vote.
Based on expectations, therefore, the result of the election will most likely not come on election night following the vote, but that we will have to wait days, if not weeks, to find out who will be the new President. A hypothesis that increases the possibility that Trump contests the results by making the handover much more complicated and trying to confuse the waters with tweets in which he declares himself the winner long before the final data arrives. In summary: to make sure you don't have any problems, Joe Biden will not have to win, he will have to win big.
US ELECTIONS: THE RESULTS AND WHERE TO FOLLOW THEM
On night three on November 3 and 4 the first provisional data will arrive after midnight in Italy from Indiana and Kentucky closely followed by Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. An hour later it will be the turn of North Carolina and Ohio, and at 2.30 (again Italian time) the result of the Florida, a state that alone is able to decree the victory of one of the two candidates. At 3 the numbers will arrive'Arizona, another very important state, followed by all the others. We remind you that in almost all cases the data will be partial and not a definitive result, even if Florida and Arizona will be looked at with great interest because they start counting the postal vote first and therefore they will be able to give significant indications on the result of the elections during the night. elections.
To follow the election night live, just watch the live broadcasts of the main American broadcasters, CNN ahead. Those who prefer to follow the count "in Italian", can do so on SkyTg24, its RaiNews or on La7 with the traditional marathon of the director of the Tg, Enrico Mentana.
