Viva Obama, down Obama: the confirmation of the US president in the White House is greeted with a sigh of relief in Italy by most political analysts, for the relationship that Barack Obama has with Europe and for the esteem he has for ours Prime Minister Mario Monti. But a few whistles are also heard amidst the applause. The best is yet to come? FIRSTonline talked about it with Alessandro Politi, strategic analyst, and with Filippo Andreatta, professor of political science at the University of Bologna.
“Romney was a disgrace – says Politi – but Obama is a problem”.
“A positive result – comments Andreatta – but it is a weak victory”.
FIRSTonline – Obama has won and now he no longer has an electoral spectrum ahead of him, because this is his last four years in government. To paraphrase the US president: is the best yet to come?
politicians – I'm glad Romney didn't win, but I don't think Obama is a boon for Europe and for Italy. Kennedy, Clinton, Obama are all good guys Democrats in the White House who defended their interests. I remain convinced that Obama, a good Christian Democrat, is a pro-European above all because, even with Monti's help, he is squeezing the populations. We have to pay, with real money, the virtual money created by others. American debts and those of the big banks, from Jp Morgan to Unicredit.
Andreatta – Obama's presence guarantees attention to Europe and continuity in economic policy, elements that have a positive impact on the euro. We can expect long-term monetary stability to help our continent attract investment. Of course it is a "weak" victory, given that the House is Republican and the margin is even narrower than the first time. In fact, I believe that Obama did not so much win as Romney lost. For years, the Republican Party has been moving towards radical positions that distance it from real society. It is the party of the adult white male, but America today is much more complex. Whether the best is yet to come I don't know. I think the global economic crisis can be overcome, but I don't think the West will return to the growth it once had.
FIRSTonline – What are the first obstacles that the president will have to overcome?
Andreatta – First the Fiscal Cliff. Obama finds himself in a difficult situation, with a divided Congress. In view of this important deadline, he cannot think of further increasing the deficit, on pain of recession and a loss of credibility, with consequent risks for the world leadership of the United States.
politicians – The division of the Congress makes it clear how divided the country is, however the Senate has considerable weight, especially on foreign policy issues. I don't think the fiscal cliff is a real problem. I've been hearing about these things for ten years and nothing has ever happened, it will be like this again. We will not see any automatic cutting, they will simply forget about it, Italian style. On the public front, there is only one expenditure that needs to be seriously cut: the military one. But they will continue to do what they have been doing up to now: they will depreciate the dollar, creating inflation and making us pay the price. America's biggest problem at the moment is its debt to China and if China doesn't grow, the US will follow suit, because they won't be able to sell their debt and their products.
FIRSTonline – President Obama wants to revive manufacturing. Is this good news for us or will Fiat “snatch” us?
Andreatta – Of course it's good news and we should do the same. Fiat is a large multinational company and if it can make new investments it will be good for everyone, including for Italy.
politicians – From this point of view we are better, we have continued to produce manufacturing. Certainly it is time for Italian entrepreneurs to change their attitude and have more courage. They have accumulated 10 years of profits without making investments and now they complain, but a lot of bureaucracy, many laws and laws are their sack flour. In Italy there is a lack of competitiveness of the system, from Marchionne down. As far as the USA is concerned, I doubt that they will really focus on industry, putting a stop to unchecked finance, even if the problem of the world economy lies precisely in this.
FIRSTonline – Is Obama the right interlocutor on the Middle East front?
Andreatta – Obama had an unspectacular but effective approach to the Middle East, so I think it is good to continue on the path traced. This is his second term, he no longer needs to be re-elected, so he will probably be more effective. There will be important changes in his team and one of them is Hillary Clinton, who has done very well. We will understand more in the light of her next choices.
FIRSTonline – Will Barak Obama's victory and an Italian electoral law like the one released yesterday by the Senate commission pave the way for a Monti bis?
Andreatta – I don't know, maybe Monti enjoys great international credibility and this means a lot, even in economic terms, for our debt. However, a caretaker government is one thing, a government supported by a shaky majority is another thing. In short, it is not an obvious prospect and in any case a Monti bis may not have the same strength.
politicians – This 42,5% barrier for the majority bonus is a scourge. Above all, it makes me think that the Democratic Party is afraid to govern.
