"I will form a new government, to fulfill the Brexit promise”. With these words, Theresa May announced that she had received from the Queen the task of forming a new government during the meeting held at Buckingham Palace. As leader of the winning party (even if that of the Tories can be defined as a real "Pyrrhic victory"), the Premier in charge will therefore try to create a shaky majority capable of remaining standing despite the slim numbers and the strong opposition from Labour, moral winners of the 8 June elections.
The objective for which, last April, May had asked His Majesty's subjects to return to the polls less than a year after Brexit and two years before the natural deadline of the legislature was to strengthen the majority in view of the negotiations for the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union which will officially begin on 19 June, less than three months (it was 29 March) from the day on which the Downing Street tenant invoked article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon which started the process.
Il election result however, not only did it totally disappoint the Prime Minister's expectations, but it greatly reduced his margin of action: iThe Conservative Party has in fact stopped at 318 seats, which could become 319 after the vote in Kensington (London) which however was postponed to tonight due to very strong friction between the various factions in the race. A number which on balance confirms not only the loss of 12 deputies compared to the previous arrangement, but also the total absence of an absolute majority in the House of Commons, corresponding to 326 seats out of a total of 650.
Given the unwillingness of the Liberal Democrats (12 deputies) to participate in any type of coalition as happened in 2010, the only way capable of leading Theresa May to form a government is to forge an alliance with the unionists of the DUP (Protestant party of Northern Ireland) which can count on 10 deputies. Overall, therefore, the coalition executive could have 328 seats (329 if the Tories conquer Kensington, the party's stronghold for years), 2 more than the minimum threshold.
“I will work with them – declared the Premier in charge – because never before has Great Britain needed certainties”. Certainties that do not only concern the possibility of carrying forward i Brexit negotiations, but also security. The two attacks suffered by the United Kingdom in recent weeks have strongly shaken public opinion, but they have also become one of the most important themes of the electoral campaign through which the Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn has managed to recover most of the twenty percentage points which according to polls separated his party from the Conservatives, winning 261 seats (31 more than in 2015). Not only that, Corbyn harshly accused May of having jeopardized the safety of citizens due to the cuts in the police force approved during her mandate at the Ministry of the Interior (when the Prime Minister was David Cameron) and the reports received on some architects of the latest attacks, to which British intelligence would not have followed up properly.
Returning to the new government, according to the agreement signed during the night, the DUP would be willing to give the Conservatives outside support on the basis of an agreement based on a premise: to prevent Northern Ireland from being granted the special status that would allow it to remain in the European Union, a condition requested by Sinn Fein, the Irish independence movement that managed to grab 7 MPs .
As for the other parties, the Scottish National Party (SNP) has undergone a major downsizing, losing 19 seats compared to the previous electoral round and stopping at 15. However, Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon called for an alliance between the various opposition parties in order to "stop the reckless rush towards a hard Brexit", pledging to maintain the single market.
Ukip not received, the party that with its former leader Nigel Farage was one of the main proponents of Brexit. Current number one Paul Nuttal (who resigned after the election) failed to win even one seat causing the party to totally disappear from the British Parliament.
In summary, although the most disastrous scenarios, namely a minority government and new elections in the coming months, have apparently been thwarted, the future political order of the United Kingdom is far from stable. Perhaps last April, Theresa May would have done better to avoid a coup de main which, on balance, seems to have cost her dearly.
