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Sweden 2022 elections: the right breaks through the social democratic wall after 30 years but the margin is narrow

Clamorous and historic success of Åkesson's far-right party, Prime Minister Andersson resigns - What happens now? Elections focus shifts to Italy, US midterms and Brazil presidential elections

Sweden 2022 elections: the right breaks through the social democratic wall after 30 years but the margin is narrow

The centre-right bloc won the general election in Sweden, undermining the majority of Social Democrats. The elections on Sunday 11 September marked a historic turning point in Sweden: i Social Democrats of the former prime minister Magdalena Andersson (she resigned immediately after the result) were confirmed as first party (exceeding 30% of the votes) but the "Swedish Democrats” (Sweden Democrats, SD), far-right and anti-immigrant party of Jimmie Akesson, managed to win a resounding 20,5% of the vote, thus becoming the second political force of Sweden and allowing the right-wing coalition (with Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals) to win the majority of seats in Parliament, albeit on the razor's edge: 176 against 173, out of a total of 349. “It's a slim majority, but it's a majority,” said the former Social Democrat prime minister, adding that this doesn't eliminate concerns “about how Sweden will evolve in the next few years. In Parliament they have a narrow margin – he added – the Social Democrats are ready and will take power if things change”.

And so the wall that for decades had relegated the extreme right to the margins of politics has also collapsed in Sweden. The centre-right wave is sweeping the politics of several European countries, from France (with Le Pen's movement) to Germany, from Eastern countries to Italy up to the Iberian countries and Slovenia. But there are other elections at stake that could upset the political balance (for the better or for the worse): the Italian political elections next 25 September – which sees the center-right team led by the Brothers of Italy, the party led by Giorgia Meloni, with double-digit voting percentages – the US midterms and presidential in Brazil.

Sweden 2022 elections, the right wins: what does it mean?

A victory that promises to upset Swedish politics and the country's reputation as a refuge for progressive and pluralist ideals. The outcome could also determine Sweden's position on the world stage, as the country works with partners to respond to the war in Ukraine, try to enter the NATO (after all the hard work to remove the Orban's veto) and assumes the rotating presidency of the European Union in 2023. Even if until 2019 the Swedish Democrats were in favor of Sweden leaving the EU, showed pro-Putin positions and were against NATO entry, they have now "changed" position: they have elected two representatives from all 'European Parliament, are part of the group of European conservatives (the same as Giorgia Meloni). Akesson himself quickly switched to open support for Ukraine and Stockholm's accession to the Atlantic Alliance.

Beyond foreign policy, there remains the clamorous success of the party led by Åkesson - to which must be added 19,1 of the conservatives - which in any case will shift the balance, tones and themes of Swedish politics having put the first place of his program the containment of crime, a more restrictive plan on immigration policies andenergy emergency. “The Swedish people voted for change,” Åkesson commented in a Facebook post. “It is time to start rebuilding security, well-being and cohesion. It's time to put Sweden first." The other alignments of the center-right bloc had made it clear during the electoral campaign: yes, in government, but without the nationalists of the SD, accepting at most "support" in Parliament.

But forming a new government will be far from simple, even if in the end it is probable that the task can be entrusted to the leader of the Moderates, Ulf Kristersson, despite only finishing in third place. The Moderates, the largest of the centre-right parties, once shunned the SD. But in the end they chose a coalition with the Sweden Democrats, with the aim of overthrowing the political status quo and undermining the Social Democrats, after decades protagonists of the political scene (since 1930 with some brief interruptions).

Elections, Sweden veers to the right with the Swedish Democrats

In recent years, the SD has expressed radical right-wing positions that have at least apparently softened on the occasion of this one election campaign. In recent years, in fact, the party has gained support precisely because it has decided to expel the extremists, and has concentrated on maintaining a rigid position (much appreciated by voters) against immigration and crime.

Not long ago, the rise of the Democrats of Sweden would have seemed far-fetched. But why this turnaround today? Until ten years ago, the liberal immigration policies of Sweden were not a major political issue until the influx of migrants into Europe in 2015 started to change that. In that time, Sweden received more than 150 immigrants, many from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. The crime rate has increased so much that concerns about immigration and integration have returned to the forefront of public opinion.

US Midterm elections: Biden's political resurrection

In addition to the elections in Sweden, and those in Italy, there is great anticipation for the other continents Midterm Election which will be held on next 8 November in the USA, when the Americans will decide which party will win the majority of the 435 seats in the Chamber and who will be assigned 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate still at stake; while 36 of the 50 states will decide their governors. But this time there are more lights than shadows for the Democrats. Until recently, an avalanche victory of the Republicans was expected, but the current tenant of the White House has an approval rating on the rise: past the 40% threshold. The change is partly due to the low level of unemployment, the reduction in the price of diesel and also to the recent legislative maxi-plan to control inflation, fight against climate change and reduce the cost of medicines. Also affecting i judicial woes of former President Trump and the decision of the Supreme Court of abolish the right to abortion, whose revocation is proving to be a Trojan horse for the Republicans.

Brazil at the presidential crossroads: Lula against Bolsonaro

In the autumn, another very delicate appointment is that of the general elections in Brazil: after the accusations against him have been dropped, it will be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to challenge Jair Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (Pl, right), with the polls showing the leader of the Workers' Party in the lead. In favor of Lula is the regrettable Bolsonaro policy of the last four years, made up of allegations (genocide and crimes against humanity), a disastrous management of the pandemic, an economy in recession with double-digit inflation, a food emergency that affects more than half of the Brazilian population, as well as a inhuman war against indigenous peoples to favor the interests of multinationals in land owned by native peoples who have made him the "champion of deforestation".

The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for 2 October. If no candidate obtains more than 50% of the valid votes on that occasion, a runoff is scheduled to be held on 30 October. Up for grabs are the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 27 of the 81 seats in the Senate.

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