Il Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in recent rallies he has shown great confidence, knowing full well that his PP will hardly govern Spain for the next 5 years alone, that is to say in the majority. The outcome of the political elections of 20 December in fact, it has never been so uncertain in the post-Franco period. So far it has been an alternation of socialist and centre-right governments. Someone luckier (Aznar's proves it), someone less. But all in the name of solid governments, capable of legislating without too much interference and with a strong sense of the nation that has made it possible to overcome delicate phases such as that of the war on ETA.
In this round, however, it will be different. The economic crisis of recent years has caused a strong popular discontent and highlighted a marked disconnect between traditional parties and citizens. Popular protest has thus taken hold, favoring minor or completely new alignments such as Ciudadanos e We can. But it has also sharpened the desire for independence in some important regions, especially Catalonia.
Given this fragile general framework and analyzing the result of the recent municipal and regional elections, it is highly probable (if not absolutely certain) that Spain is heading towards a Italianization of his Government. That is to say the birth of a coalition government, with outlines still smoky, because the polls will decree its formation.
Nevertheless, it must also be emphasized that they will be first elections also for King Felipe. An obviously "super partes" Monarchy, but nevertheless ever closer and more sensitive to the problems of the population. A modern Monarchy, where the Queen, let's not forget of popular extraction, is doing an excellent job of mending the cold and detached institutions of the country and its citizens.
The test of 20 December, therefore, beyond the result, will be interesting for the developments it will have on the political life and the management of the country. It is a delicate phase because Spain, although officially out of the crisis, is still grappling with a fragile occupation (the unemployment rate especially among young people is over 40%) and with an antiquated economic model that is based on three main pillars: tourism, construction, cars.
The fact that the GDP growth in 2015 around 3% and that of 2016 between 2 and 3% is among the highest in Europe, however suggests an important electoral "reward" for Mariano Rajoy and at the same time a barrier to the wishful thinking of Ciudadanos and Podemos.
The mission (possible or impossible?) of the PP, discarding the hypothesis that it may have a round majority, is to obtain at least 125 seats (with at least 5 points more than the second party), i.e. 29% of the votes. That is to say a solid minority that can give the centre-right a strong position in the negotiations with the potential ally. And above all a certain stability in the country.
If, on the other hand, the PP stops at 100-110 seats, the situation will become more complicated and so will the possible scenarios. Indeed, in this second hypothesis, Pedro Sanchez's socialists could have good game in proposing an alternative government with Ciudadanos and the external support of Podemos or, vice versa, with Podemos and the external support of Ciudadanos (it will depend on the votes collected).
The third scenario, very unlikely, is that of an enlarged coalition of several parties, with the obvious change at the top of one of the two main parties, namely PP or Psoe. This would certainly be a scenario of great political instability for Spain with negative consequences in terms of governance and the country's main issues: independence, health, social security, work.
So all that remains is to wait for the verdict of tomorrow's polls to understand which political path Spain will take. “The fact remains that Spanish politics – an important Catalan businessman declares to Firstonline -, will tend to look more and more like the Italian one: less bipartisanship and more multiparty". As if to say that uncertainty reigns supreme and that for Spain it is certainly not a positive sign.
