Hot week for European political fate. Voting will take place between 8 and 11 June in Great Britain, France and Italy. Political elections in the UK, where Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, parliamentarians in France and local administrations in Italy will face each other.
BETWEEN BREXIT AND TERRORISM, IN THE UK THE OUTCOME IS STILL UNCERTAIN
That of last June 3 is the third terrorist attack in the last three months between London and Manchester. The nightmare of terrorism has created panic and terror, increasing the dissatisfaction of the population with the entire British security system, hit too often by bombers already known by Scotland Yard but never stopped.
Recent events could affect the political elections of 8 June, which will see Theresa challenge each other May and Jeremy Corbyn. The first, conservative and in office after Cameron's resignation, decided to bring forward the elections to capitalize on the success of Brexit. Corbyn, on the other hand, a Labor Party man, based his electoral campaign on the continuous attack on his rival, accusing her on several fronts, above all security. Just yesterday he pointed the finger at the incumbent prime minister, finding her guilty of the "police cuts that have opened holes in security" imposed by May when he was Minister of the Interior.
In recent weeks, various polling statistical institutes and bookmakers (who enjoy high credibility in Great Britain) have always given May ahead of Corbyn by about 10 points. The only institution that seems to leave the door open to surprise scenarios is YouGov which, while foreseeing the victory of the Tories, foreshadows the possibility of the "Hung Parliament", ie a Parliament with no party capable of obtaining the majority of seats.
Two days before the elections, polls show the Conservatives down, with Labor holding 5 seats as of 268 June and the Tories 305, remaining fixed at 326 the required majority.
In two days we will know if the Isis effect will give a push to the government in office (as happened to the socialists in France), or if the British citizens will prefer to choose to continue to place their trust in those who strongly wanted the Brexit.
FRANCE: MACRON SEEKS CONFIRMATION IN PARLIAMENT
New call to the polls for the French. On June 11, the country will vote to elect the new Parliament. The French system provides for the double round in which, in the individual constituencies, the candidates who obtained 18% of the votes in the first round go to the ballot - scheduled for 12,5 June.
It is a fundamental political appointment for the fate of France, closely connected to last month's presidential elections which consecrated Emmanuel Macron President of the Republic.
The ballot is divided into electoral districts: 577, of which 11 abroad, from which 577 members of the National Assembly will emerge. The electoral system is a single-member, majority, two-round system. A candidate can win from the first round if he obtains 50% plus one of the votes cast, representing at least 25% of the college members.
Macron's goal is to obtain at least 289 deputies in order to thus obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly and not have to reach compromises with rival political forces.
The polls for now give Republic in Marche, Macron's party, in the lead with 29,5% of the votes, followed by the Republicans and the Front National by Marine The Pen.
ADMINISTRATIVE ITALY: MORE THAN THOUSAND MUNICIPALITIES TO VOTE
Between 11 and 25 June (first round and ballots) more than 9 million voters will vote in 1005 Italian municipalities. Most likely it will be a first national test in view of the possible policies anticipated in the autumn which should see the debut of the German-style electoral system with the barrier at 5%.
Among the municipalities involved (from as many as 18 regions out of 20), 25 provincial capitals, of which 4 regional capitals, and 161 with more than 15 inhabitants. Polls open from 7 to 23.
The ballot round – in which the two candidates for mayor with the most votes participate – concerns municipalities with a population of more than 15 inhabitants, in the event that no one has achieved an absolute majority of votes; or, still for Municipalities with more than 15 inhabitants, if the two candidates have had an equal number of votes.
A Palermo the M5S will have to confirm the forecasts of the polls, which see Grillo's party ahead despite the chaos of signatures. Also to Parma the pentastellati will have to know how to manage the situation after the tough clash between the Grillini leaders and the former mayor Pizzarotti.
In Lombardia, Forza Italia, Lega and Fratelli d'Italia will instead have to verify the stability of their alliance, while Matteo Renzi's Pd will have to be able to maintain strategic cities, GenoVa above all.
