Regional elections, Petruccioli explains what the vote on the right, on the M5S and the third pole and on the Democratic Party really tells us

Claudio Petruccioli, former parliamentarian, former president of Rai and former right-hand man of Achille Occhetto in the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS), comments on The intelligent magazine i results of the regional elections in Lombardy and Lazio, providing his own analysis of the centre-right's victory. Which party – between Brothers of Italy, Lega and Forza Italia – did he come out more strengthened? Who managed to bring more voters to the polls? And on the other hand, how did it go to Democratic Party, Action-Italia Viva and Movimento 5 Stelle?

We republish Claudio Petruccioli's reflections on The intelligent magazine.

I belong to the old (actually very old) school according to which for analyze the vote we start from absolute numbers; then comes the rest, including percentages. In this case, really, one is worth one, a hundred is a hundred, and so on. On the basis of this simple and basic criterion, I have developed a first evaluation of the vote for the renewal of the regional councils in Lombardy and Lazio of 12 and 13 February.

I didn't consider all the lists, I selected them you are more politically significant to me: Brothers of Italy, Lega, Forza Italia, Democratic Party, 5Stelle, Italy Viva-Calenda. Together with the votes obtained by these lists, I have counted those obtained by the lists of candidates for the presidency, all politically well characterized; these are the lists of Rocca and D'Amato for Lazio, those for Fontana, Majorino and Moratti in Lombardy. I have compared the results with those of 25 September, as known general elections for the renewal of the national Parliament.

The brevity of the interval between the two electoral appointments, the news on the national political scene, the asymmetry of the competition which, even on the occasion of the regional elections, faced with a coalition that brought together the entire centre-right (or right-centre for those who prefer ), saw a centre-left divided with little or no chance of winning; all of this explains the very low voter turnout. If you think about it, only voters who feared a degrading failure for the political function of their party had a good reason to go and vote. The numbers confirm this hypothesis.

During the television marathons I have repeatedly heard that, given the very high percentage of non-voters, the weight could conventionally be distributed equally among all. In doing so, however, the only significant fact that these elections make available is lost, namely the reactivity of the "hard core", even "very hard", in the face of the risk of collapse of one's own party.

From the tables it can be seen that: FI and League they avoided the threat of being cannibalized by FdI, as quite a few had instead predicted; both in Lazio and in Lombardy they brought to the polls a higher percentage of voters on 25 September than that reached by their major ally. In Lombardy the League, with the votes of the Fontana list it reaches 97,2%, almost en plein; thus he is the main architect of the success of the coalition. In absolute votes, the gap from FdI which in September was around 750.000 votes, was reduced to around 75.000. The meaning is clear: the electorate of the right, with all its diversifications, moves a lot but always within its own enclosure; in choosing the list rightly attaches great importance to the leadership because has as its goal the conquest of the government. The prevalence of one or the other member of the coalition depends from time to time on the ability of each to field the most credible leadership for achieving the objective; the very duration of the primacy depends on whether or not the leadership is consolidated.

On the other hand it proves that it is the 5 Stars led by Contiana, is the third pole of Italy alive and action have little appeal in regional elections due to their accentuated "opinion" character but above all because they, by their own choice, they don't ask for a vote to govern. In Lazio the 5Stelle obtained less than half of the votes of 25 September and in Lombardy less than a third. The Third Pole is even worse: a third in Lazio, a quarter in Lombardy; scarce. Even with the contribution of a prestigious candidacy such as that of Letizia Moratti, with a list of hers, the alliance of the third pole took half of the votes in September.

Il PD, both in Lazio (58,5% compared to 59,6) and in Lombardy (62,8 compared to 62) undergoes a contraction close to the general average. However, with the addition of the votes from the lists of the two candidates, D'Amato and Majorino, it rises to 67,4% and 81,5% respectively. Thus it confirms that it is the only center-left party from which a force of aggregation and leadership can emanate. This round there was neither. For the future we will see.

Article by Claudio Petruccioli published on The smart magazine