The round to elect the new one Regional Council of the Lazio is upon us: Sunday 12 and Monday 13 February over 5 million voters will be called to vote. Much will depend on the economic conditions in which the Region was left by the previous administration and on the ability of the incoming one to relaunch Lazio and make it fully one of the most competitive regions in Europe. Even if the unforeseen events of recent years, the pandemic crisis before and the expensive energy after, should weigh in the assessment. But what is the situation in Lazio?
In the first half of 2022 theeconomic activity of Lazio grew by 5,8% compared to the same period last year (5,7 in Italy), exceeding the pre-pandemic level by about one percentage point. That's what emerges from the last economic update published by the Bank of Italy last November. A good result compared to the performance of 2021, when the Region recovered by 6,3%, against +6,6% for the whole country. Furthermore, growth was held back by energy price increases which, together with the uncertainty associated with the war in Ukraine, are also affecting growth prospects.
The sectors that are most driving the recovery of our Region are, without a doubt, the sector of construction, real estate, e services. Therefore, the brick which has always been considered a safe investment, is confirmed as one of the pillars. The manufacturing industry also saw positive data, despite the growing difficulties in terms of energy.
The data, therefore, offer the image of a Region - the second region in Italy for GDP after Lombardy - which has recovered the gap generated by the pandemic, but which is growing at a slower pace than in the North and above all in the Lombardia which instead expands more and more and brings a dowry to the next junta dossier full of growth. But there are several to hold back Lazio Nodi still unresolved: first of all waste e Health. And next weekend's election race will be played out precisely on these cards.
Sectors and businesses
In 2022 the recovery was favored by the good performance of tourist flows, the construction sector and exports. Industrial and service companies, interviewed by the Bank of Italy, recorded a significant recovery in turnover at current prices, but expectations for the next six months are for a slowdown. Investments stagnated, although they were livelier for large industrial companies and for the chemical, rubber and plastics sectors.
However, growth has been held back by rising energy prices. For almost a quarter of the companies in Lazio, less than a fifth on the national average, energy costs had a significant impact on the total expenditure incurred for the purchase of goods and services (for over 20%).
For An industry, Lazio has a strong entrepreneurial and industrial vocation. It is therefore necessary to recover the positions lost over the years and give new impetus to employment, focusing on the growth of the economic and entrepreneurial system.
Construction in strong recovery, Tourism far from pre-Covid levels
In the first part of 2022, the sector of construction continued to grow, driven by the tax breaks associated with restructuring (primarily the Super bonus) and also by the good performance of the Real Estate Market. Sales of residential properties increased overall by 9% compared to the same period of 2021 - slightly less than the national average - those of non-residential properties by 16,5% (9,2 in Italy). Based on information from the Real Estate Market Observatory, house prices grew by 5,6% (4,9 on the Italian average); while in the non-residential segment prices fell further.
The economic improvement was more intense in the sector of services. The growth was higher for companies that carry out commercial, hotel and restaurant activities, driven by the strong recovery in tourist flows. Companies expect a similar increase in the next six months. This is because i energy costs have less impact on service businesses than on industrial ones.
Based on data from the Bank of Italy survey on international, traveler spending in the first half of 2022 foreign in the region it has increased significantly compared to the same period of 2021, going from 10,1 to 15,4% of the national total. Despite the recovery, overall tourist attendance is still lower than pre-Covid.
Exchanges with foreign countries
In the first half of 2022, exports increased by 15,9% (11,5% in 2021). However, the increase was lower than the average for Italy and the Centre.
The largest contribution to growth (just over two-thirds) came from the sectors of chemistry and pharmaceutica, which make up half of regional exports. Among other major sectors, coke and refined products and computers and electronics each contributed about 4 percent. Exports of rubber, plastics, minerals, electrical appliances and food, beverages and tobacco also grew. Means of transport, which account for around 10% of total exports, instead showed a slight decline, accompanied by a more intense decline in metal products.
With reference to outlet markets, the EU, which absorbs about two thirds of regional exports, contributed almost 90% to the overall growth. The increase recorded in the euro area was driven by sales to the Spain. Among the non-EU countries, the highest sales in Asia and in Kingdom Unito, corresponded to a decline in United States.
The labor market and families
In the first half of 2022 theoccupation it grew by 4,2% compared to the same period of 2021, more than in Italy (3,6%). The employment rate thus rose to 61,8% (59,8 on the national average) and despite the slowdown recorded in the second quarter, employment has almost recovered to its pre-pandemic level.
Services contributed above all to the increase in employment (4,9%), thanks to the recovery of tourist flows, particularly in the sector of business, accommodation e Catering for a total of +18,9%. But driving the increase was the construction sector (21,6%). Recourse to permanent contracts has intensified, driven by the transformation of temporary contracts, and wage subsidies have decreased. THE unemployed and unemployment rate decreased by 23,4% and 2,5% respectively. The unemployment rate thus fell to 7,8% (8,4 on the national average).
The credit market
After last year's marked decline, in the first part of 2022 i funding to companies returned to growth (0,9%), thanks to the trend in loans to large companies. The increase was concentrated in the extractive and energy sectors, while there was a decline in the manufacturing sector.
Despite the increase in ECB rates, in the first half of 2022 the new disbursements of mortgages for the purchase of homes amounted to 3,7 billion euros, up by around 11% compared to the same period of 2021, accompanied by the good performance of real estate sales. However, the fixed rate has grown, surpassing the variable rate after two years of substantial parity. However, the share of fixed-rate mortgages on all new business still remains predominant and equal to around 80% of new contracts (90% in the last quarter of 2021).
In the first half of 2022, the quality of credit granted to customers showed no signs of deterioration and the deterioration rate it has remained at lower levels than in the pre-Covid period.
Healthcare
Il sanitary system remains in the center of campaign. Shortage of personnel, precarious workers still in limbo which translate into long waiting lists and a delay in a diagnosis which aggravates both the patient and the public coffers. This is why quickly recovering the healthcare services lost during Covid is a necessity for the National Health Service and an absolute priority for Lazio, where healthcare represents the main destination of the Region's current primary expenditure.
The costs of the health service in Lazio recorded a significant increase in 2020 (5,6% the change in total costs) which, based on still provisional data, continued, more moderately, in 2021. In that year, the expenditure in favor of residents was equal to 2.155 euros per capita, slightly lower than the national and RSO average (respectively, 2.233 and 2.214 euros). In the two-year period, the trend in revenues was limited and not sufficient to cover i higher charges resulting from the health emergency. To this end, additional resources have been allocated at national level (both Covid-19 resources and those provided by the National Health Fund), which have made it possible to offset the impact on the budgets in terms of both costs and revenues.
Additional resources have been assigned to Lazio under the PNRR, in order to favor the structural strengthening of the health supply in the region by 2026. These resources could relaunch the investment expenditure of the Region and of the health institutions compared to the values observed in the three-year period preceding the health crisis, when this expenditure was on average equal at 26 euros per capita, against 52 at national level. In the event that these funds are fully used on schedule, they would make it possible to double overall investment spending compared to the values recorded in the average for the 2017-19 period. And the next Lazio regional administration will play on the ability to realize the historic opportunity for health care.
Waste management
On the subject of The circular economy, Lazio is third last in Italy (above only Calabria and Sicily) in terms of recycling e collection according to Ispra (Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research) and Anci (National Association of Italian Municipalities). But dragging the Region below the national average (61,3%) is Roma. The capital has one of the lowest separate waste collection levels in Italy (46%) and produces approximately 2.600 tonnes of unsorted waste per day.
Numerous accidents have occurred in the plants, the latest in chronological order being the fire that occurred at the site of Malagrotta. Due to the inadequacy of the existing plants, about 30% of Rome's waste is sent to landfills, while a good part is sent to other regions of Italy or abroad. For those who buy garbage from the capital, it is an advantage as a large part of the waste is incinerated, to obtain electric energy. And we pay out about 170 million a year. For the Romans this translates into an increase in management costs, which is why there is one in Rome waste tax (TARI) higher than the national average.
Faced with an alarming picture, the Capitoline administration has announced its intention to build a waste-to-energy plant, the implementation of which would fall within the competences attributed to the Region. Although the decision was welcomed by many as an important change of pace, it received the opposition of citizens' parties and committees, who are convinced that the best solution is to strengthen the separate waste collection system. In the last year something has changed, but the chronic problems of waste in the region - and above all in the capital - are still far from being resolved, and we can no longer hesitate. Waste management, together with healthcare, remains one of the hottest topics that will shift the needle of the city's political balance in the next regional elections.
Other crucial issues according to Unindustria
The Roman Confindustria, last Friday, illustrated the priorities of businesses and the territory for the next regional council, focusing on the strengths need weakness of Rome and Lazio. Healthcare and waste are important issues of greater public interest, but they tend to leave out other equally crucial issues. Like the pharmaceutical, defense and aerospace sectors, as well as digital, cinema, energy and automotive. As well as training and education. All points on which it is worth concentrating to restore the position of a Region that boasts the second largest GDP in the state but which grows at a lower rate than others in Northern Italy. And which instead has all the credentials to be an example and a point of reference for the country.
