The Northern League advances, the Democratic Party and Forza Italia retreat, but Grillo also loses an avalanche of support. This is highlighted by the Cattaneo Institute of Bologna which, in order to identify winners and losers in the regional elections, compares the votes intercepted by the various parties in Sunday's part-session, with those obtained in the 2014 European and 2013 political elections.
Il Democratic party, says Cattaneo, loses more than three million votes, also due to abstention. In percentage terms, the decline is greater in the regions that have gone to their opponents, Veneto (-65,8%) e Liguria (-57,3%), but it is also significant in Tuscany (-42,6%).
If Athens cries but Sparta does not laugh and just take a look at the results of Movement 5 stars to realize it. The pentastellati lose about 60% of their consents compared to the exploits of the 2013 policies and 40,4% on the European ones. In absolute values, the grillini lose almost two million votes from politicians and almost 900 from the European ones. How come? According to the Bolognese institute, the movement, at this juncture, has not been able to capitalize, on the left, the problem of the "unpresentables" in Campania and on the right, the malaise of the voters of the Veneto, who have oriented themselves towards Salvini.
More predictable however is the collapse of Forza Italy: the team led by Silvio Berlusconi loses 46,9% from the European elections and over two thirds of the votes compared to the 2013 policies (-67,0%). Exceptional values in absolute terms: minus 2 million votes on 2013; minus 1 million or so on 2014.
On the other hand, in terms of percentage growth, the Lega North, which receives double the number of consents compared to the political ones (+109,4%, equal to 402.584 votes) and +50,0% to the European ones (equal to over two hundred thousand votes).
“Obviously – writes Cattaneo – since it is a party with a strong geo-territorial connotation, variations emerge between the regions considered. The greatest growth is in the central (“red”) regions, i.e. in areas where the party was previously less strong”.
Paradoxically, the League drops only in Veneto (-9,7%), due to the striking result of the "president's" list linked to the candidate Luca Zaia. But there is a further aspect to underline: “The changed balance of forces between the two main political actors of the centre-right. The Northern League has become the first party in this political area (and of the potential coalition) in all the regions where it has presented its own list. The growth in absolute votes has allowed the Carroccio to surpass Forza Italia ".
Today the weight of green shirts is therefore double that of blue shirts (67% vs 33%). “A very significant figure if we consider that even a year ago the balance of power was practically reversed”.
