As usual, every local election determines variations in the political balance of Giorgia Meloni's government in Rome. These too regional elections 2023, which moreover concern two regions of great importance such as Lombardy and Lazio, could bring some shocks to the central level. It is true that the right-centre should win the presidency of both regions given that the opponents present themselves divided and with divergent coalitions in the two regions.
Regional elections: Meloni risks a center-right in turmoil
At the local level, these elections do not seem to have aroused great interest among citizens. If abstention is high, as it seems, this should also be carefully evaluated by national politics because it would signal persistence party crisis on the one hand, and on the other the crescent disappointment towards the regional institute and in terms of healthcare, the main field of responsibility of regional governments, have certainly not shown that they know how to govern.
The centre-right parties are in competition with each other because they fear the "rescue to the victor" effect, ie a increase in Brothers of Italy votes that after having passed in a few years in the two regions from about 5% to 26-27% of last September's policies, it could now exceed 30%, especially at the expense of its government allies. Indeed the League which in Lombardy was around 30% in recent policies had dropped to 13,9%, while Forza Italia went from over 14% in 2018 to just under 8%. It is no coincidence that Salvini appears nervous and in his search for some visibility he never stops saying extravagant or very serious things, so much so as to arouse distrust and bewilderment even among his loyal constituents. Attacking the President of the Republic for going to Sanremo to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the Constitution is blatant nonsense. But even more serious is the battle to prevent Zelensky from appearing at the Festival and the attempts to boycott our support for the Ukrainian army by proclaiming a neutrality that smacks so much of pressure from Putin that Salvini cannot refuse.
Berlusconi he strives to be seen in the electoral campaign and continues to affirm that his party is fundamental for the balance of the government, while in reality he is unable to touch the ball except to bring forward modest proposals to support electoral clientele.
In short, in the centre-right coalition each one tries to steal votes from his neighbor with a game that will perhaps be zero-sum and will not be able to stop the outflow of moderate votes towards Moratti and the third pole which in Lombardy starts from a good 10% and which aims to exceed by at least three-four points that level.
The Democratic Party is the great absentee
On the other hand, the PD was once again unable to indicate a policy. In Lombardy he allied himself with the 5 Stars, while in Lazio, where he governed with the grillini, he allied himself with the Third Pole, moreover supporting one who was part of the Zingaretti council and who as health manager had had appreciable results in contrasting the covid pandemic.
Government: it's solid, but what will Meloni do after the regional elections?
Whatever the outcome of the vote will be the government does not appear to be at risk. However, they may change balance within the coalition. A weakening of Lega and Forza Italia could lead to an accentuation of the "dialectic" within the Government and Parliament because the losers will seek greater visibility and above all will try not to let Meloni score too many goals. The opposition for the moment does not seem able to annoy the Government unless a large landslide of Forza Italia does not lead to the split of the parliamentary group of Berlusconi by sliding the moderate party towards the third pole and that which belongs to. Renzulli towards the League or Meloni herself. In reality everything will move to the next electoral stage and that is to the European elections of 2024. Only then, with proportional voting, will it be possible to measure the balance of power between the parties and therefore trigger some parliamentary slippage.
For now, the government appears able to go ahead. But to do what? The president takes credit for having done many good things so far. And she, above all, is putting a lot of irons on the fire for this year. But if we carefully observe the parliamentary dynamics, we can already see today how the government's provisions meet many obstacles from the majority itself. Changes are frequent and mostly pejorative. And so far these are relatively modest measures. What will happen when a tax reform, or differentiated regionalization, or the reform of the labor market and basic income is brought to Parliament? Above all Meloni does not seem able to acquire credibility on the international scene as seen in recent European summit. And this is due both to the positions taken in the past by herself and by her party and the persistence pro-Putin attitude of Salvini and Berlusconi which raises many suspicions in Europe about the Euro-Atlantic sincerity of Meloni herself.
Difficult to make predictions. One thing is certain: the keys to our future are in the hands of the Italians, and not going to vote is not a good way to express yourself.
