La Lombardy region it is handed over to the junta that will be chosen by the citizens in the elections of next 12 and 13 February with a plate full of GDP, work, manufacturing, exports even better than those of countries such as France and Germany. A dish that in recent years has also made from driving force for the economy of the whole country and for this very reason the next regional government will have double responsibility.
Rich dishes are tempting, but you also have to live up to them. Also because there are quite a few problems lurking, and on the other hand there are very deficient sides, such as healthcare management e of the environmentand, and they are precisely the ones that belong most, not only to entrepreneurs and citizens, but precisely to the public body that has been proposing the same recipe for 28 years.
Le industry, tertiary but also, surprisingly, the sector agri-food, are the sectors that most characterize Lombardy and that have managed to recover in 2022 from the losses of the pandemic period. In recent months, however, they have arrived inflation, dear-energy and uncertainty for the geopolitical situation international, and the effects are already beginning to be felt. What the first indications show for Lombardy's business in 2023 is that there will certainly not be a recession, but probably a slowdown which could also be less heavy than expected. But Danger signals there are: “From second quarter of last year" He says Bankitalia in its dossier on regional economies published last November, “it is confirmed a weakening of the basic components of the Lombard economy and the worsening climate of business and household confidence heralds a deterioration of the economic situation”.
Lombardy still driving the national economy
After the deep crisis of the pandemic period, the estimates see Lombardy grow in 2022 by 4,3% according to Assolombarda e Prometeia, more than it is estimated to grow the Italli: according to the last Istat data in fact the National GDP it should see growth of 3,9% in 2022 compared to 2021, a result higher than the initial government indications of +3,7%. For next year, Assolombarda, in its latest "Booklet Economia", has already revised its estimate for the Lombard GDP to +0,6%, the same as Pormeteia, from last autumn's estimate limited to +0,3%.
“Lombardy is leading the national growth: if the Italian GDP exceeds expectations, as we have seen from the latest data, it will most likely be the same for the Lombardy region and therefore we could also see a GDP of around 4,6% for 2022 and just under 1% for 2023” is the calculation of an Italian bank strategist. Lombardy's GDP is above the national (+2,3% Emilia-Romagna, +0,7% Veneto, +0,2% Piedmont) and European (+0,5% Bayern, -0,3% Baden-Württemberg) benchmarks , -2,3% Cataluña) second Assolombarda . The expansion, according to the Lombard branch of Confindustria, was driven by construction (+10,4% annual growth in added value) and come on services (+4,9%), with a positive contribution too from industry (+ 1,2%).
Il Lombard GDP is worth 1,8 times that of Portugal, 2,2 times that of the Greece and 2,7 times that of Hungary, which has roughly the same inhabitants as Lombardy.
Lombardy has a per capita income which exceeds the European average by 35%, driven by an industrial development that has brought it into the international network of Four Motors for Europe, together with Baden-Wurttemberg, Rhone Alpes and Catalonia.
“Lombard GDP will slow down in 2023but we'll see still growthalbeit slight” says the president of Assolombarda, Alessandro Spada. “At the beginning of the year, the forecasts related to the local economy are improving, with the data they give back to us positive signs in terms of trust for the foreseeable future".
What the industry wants. Speak Sword
"What you need nowSpada says, “is to give a positive momentum to a region which is the growth engine of the entire country and which, through the supply chains, has an impact on the whole national economic fabric. First of all, it is necessary to develop one industrial policy aimed at strengthening innovation in manufacturing, just as it is essential to complete the strategic infrastructure in the manner and within the foreseen times, with particular reference to works related to the Pnrr and the Milan-Cortina Olympics. The companies are there and they hope to be able to strengthen the winning model of public-private collaboration which has always distinguished the Lombardy system”.
Almost all the Lombard productive sectors have recovered from the Covid
Post-Covid growth has been sustained for almost all productive sectors, but in particular for the clothing, footwear and textile sectors, those that had been most affected by the restrictions. These are followed by the food, rubber-plastic, chemical and pharmaceutical industries and the steel industry. Assolombarda notes that Lombardy industry differs from Italy which remains unchanged (+0,1% trend production): compared to before Covid, themanufacturing activity in Lombardy grew by 11,3%, the Italian one is at +2,4% and, in both cases, the difference with German and French production remains very wide, at -3,7 and -2,7 percentage points”. According to the data of Unioncamere Lombardia, manufacturing production increased by 7,6% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period of 2021, with the degree of capacity utilization rising to an historical level of 77,9%.
The 2023 deceleration shows the first clues
The slowdown in economic growth in 2023 compared to the previous year is confirmed by the data for January of manufacturing confidence climate which, although slightly up on December, remains in the North-West at lower levels than those recorded between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Among the factors that are considered as a "brake” to exports the factor “prices and costs”, which reaches the record percentage of 30%.
Industrialists, according to what Bank of Italy also reports, complain about some obstacles to production such as insufficiency of plants and materials, insufficiency of demand, shortage of manpower. In bucking compared to the picture that emerges for the industry, the service sector at the beginning of 2023, however, it detects a increase in the climate of confidence, both in Italy and in the North-West, recovering the decline recorded in the second half of 2022.
The construction sector, public works and Pnrr resources
In construction sector the expansion of the activity is in the course of 2022 and according to the Bank of Italy survey, about 40% of companies expect a further increase in 2023.
Production in the public works sector will benefit, in the coming years, from the investments activated by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) and by the National Complementary Plan (PNC). The assigned resources to the Lombard territorial entities in mid-October were to 6,6 billion (11,8% of the national total), mainly aimed at interventions to promote the protection of the territory, urban redevelopment and the quality of living.
Once the fear of the virus has passed, tourism returns
Once the pandemic containment measures have been archived, the tourists in Lombardy, especially the foreign. “There has been a sharp increase in tourists in the receptive exercises of the region in the first half of the year" say the provisional data of Polis Lombardia, "with arrivals and attendance more than doubled, especially of foreign travellers”. According to Bankitalia, 65% of companies in the sector recorded an increase in turnover in the first 9 months of 2022 compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and about half expect to increase sales in the next six months.
Lombardy exports at the top: it beats European competitors
In the first half of 2022 theLombard export he has grown by +22,1% compared to the same period of 2021, for an overall budget record of 80,7 billion euros, notes Assolombarda in its November study, showing the comparison with other countries: Baden-Württemberg + 16,9% Bavaria + 9,3% Catalonia + 16,6% Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes +16,5%. Sales to the EU 27 rose more than the average (24,9%), above all due to the contribution of those directed to the largest countries of the Union (Germany, France, Spain and Poland). Growth in countries outside the EU (18,8%) derives in particular from flows to the United States and Switzerland. Exports to China have increased to a very limited extent, those to Russia and Ukraine (less than 2% of the regional total) have decreased respectively by 17,2 and 40,1%, says Bank of Italy. The growth of Lombard exports concerned all compartments of regional specialization, but in particular from metallurgy, textiles, clothing, footwear, electronics, chemistry and food, with forecasts of an increase in the coming months also in this case.
The strength of Lombard exports can also be seen from Monitor on industrial districts prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo. “Lombardy has seen one growth of 25% compared to the first nine months of 2019″ Fabrizio Guelph, responsible for the Monitor. “Just in Lombardy there is one very representative range of industrial districts: metallurgy, fashion, furniture, and agri-food. “Some have seen a particularly brilliant trend in Lombardy: that of Brescian metallurgy for example, which was more affected by the rise in prices, in the first nine months of 2022 it saw a growth of 32% compared to the same period in 2021".
Work: the unemployment rate fell to 5,3% against the national figure of 8,4%.
In the first part of 2022, the market for work region has shown new signs of improvement, says the Bank of Italy, thanks to a sensitive increase in employment, even if the levels of 2019 have not yet been fully recovered. The use of social shock absorbers it dropped markedly, almost returning to pre-pandemic levels, and the number of unemployed decreased. According to data from the Labor Force Survey of the Istat, in the first half of 2022 the employed in Lombardy rose by 2,9%, continuing the favorable dynamics that began in the second quarter of 2021. Compared to the first half of 2019, employment levels were still 1,3% lower. The number of employed people grew above all in the sectors linked to commerce, accommodation and catering (8,5%), which had suffered the effects of the crisis to a greater extent, and in construction (6,5%). The increase involved both self-employed workers and employees, and was greater for men. The employment rate it rose to 67,7% (against 59,8% in Italy), 2,1 percentage points more than in the first half of 2021 (it was 68,5% in the corresponding period of 2019). The unemployment rate it dropped to 5,3% against 8,4% in Italy, a value half a percentage point lower than what was recorded in the first half of 2019.
Evidence on the positive trend in employment is also provided by the Bank of Italy survey: 32% of Lombard companies expect an increase in their employees over the year compared to 2021. But according to Prometeia, the labor market is also seen to suffer push-ups in Lombardy. "In 2023 the gradual depletion of public investment spending and the uncertainties in the financial markets and the rise in the cost of money lead to a significant attenuation of the economic dynamics with repercussions also on the labor market" says the research institute.
Skyrocketing real estate market
Where there is activity and work there is a need for housing. And in Lombardy the real estate market has exploded in recent months. And also the prices, especially in Milan.
“The real estate market has continued to expand, says Bankitalia, transactions for thehouse purchase increased by 8,4% in one year and the quotations rose by 6,4%. In the non-residential sector, real estate exchanges grew by 13,4%, while prices increased by 1,2%.
Household consumption and inflation
I household consumption Lombardy should continue to grow in real terms, benefiting from the improvement in the labor market, according to forecasts by Svimez elaborated last summer. But "the trend should be less intense than in 2021 due both to the deterioration in consumer confidence following the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and to the price hike to consumption which started in 2021”. In the first nine months of the year, the region's annual price increase has subsided from 4,1% in January to 8,4% in Septemberdriven above all by the increase in the component linked to housing and utilities (30,4% in September)
To whom did the basic income go?
In Lombardy, the number of households receiving the Citizenship Income (RdC) or the Citizenship Pension (PdC) decreased to around 82.000 (from 104.000 in the same period of the previous year). The families benefiting from these measures represent 1,8% of those residing in the region (the incidence was equal to 4,5 on the national average, according to Bank of Italy data.
The Lombardy you don't expect
The Region is not "that of industry and the tertiary sector". Lombardy is also, surprisingly, there first agricultural region of Italy. In Lombardy, 37% of Italian milk, 42% of Italian rice, 40% of Italian pork products are produced. It is also first in terms of area dedicated to agriculture, whose activities cover 69% of the territory.
Ample room for improvement in health and the environment
But that's not enough. In the face of many positive aspects, Lombardy has a serious delay on the level of ecological transition and environmental protection e of health.
First for the Health, for which the model used up to now has mainly pushed towards the private healthcare and introduced the logic of private healthcare into the public one, with less and less attention to family medicine. Many voices are calling for a rebalancing, different rules of engagement and a reform that involves the world of medicine, nurses, the third sector, local authorities, universities.
Pollution is the other serious problem. Lombardy is the region most polluted in Europe, according to the European Environment Agency, and in these 28 years of management with the same direction, the interventions, between indecision and denialism, have been the only palliatives.
Due to the high presence of PM10, due to the high number of industries, but also due to its meteorological and geographical conditions, Lombardy carries on its shoulders no less than fourteen EU infringement proceedings. Not only that, but the EU has also rejected the Region for the wastewater, for the nitrogen dioxide and for the implementation of seaside directive. On the other hand, the city of Milano, also due to the removal from the center of the industrial poles, has lost much of that smog that characterized it, and also its proverbial and stereotyped fog is increasingly rare, but this evidently is not enough.
