A sigh of relief did not just draw him Emmanuel Macron, but all of Europe. The percentages with which the outgoing president of France will present himself on April 24 to the new challenge with the leader of the far right Marine Le Pen (as in 2017) make the difference: 28,5% for him, 23,6% for her.
Both gain positions compared to the last time: Macron wins more than four points compared to five years ago; Marine Le Pen two.
French presidential elections: all the results
Two great movements in French political history collapsed: the Gaullist right, led by the president of the Ile de France region, Valerie Pecresse, which has never achieved such a low result, below 5%; and the Socialist Party, which achieved less than 2% with the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo. On the other hand, the leader of the radical left makes an important performance Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which exceeds itself compared to the previous election and reaches 20,3%. All the rest of the candidate troop (there were 12 in all) share the crumbs.
Towards the ballot
In the last few hours, rumors had spread that some polls were giving the two candidates head to head, with 24%: it was panic. Then, the new numbers changed the situation, making many smile again.
Macron can now think more calmly about the next fortnight, when he will have to definitively win the race for the presidency. Why games are not done: Marine Le Pen confirms the run-up to collecting votes, and in any case the extreme right has never been so strong in the country, as noted by the popular analyst Alain Duhamel.
French presidential elections: turnout
Worse than expected instead for participation in the vote: 73,5% went to the polls of the French against 77,77% in 2017, more than four points less.
At first glance it might seem like a democratic catastrophe, but it was considered much less severely by national TV analysts: after all – was their reasoning – it hasn't gone so badly since there is an ongoing war in the heart of Europe and which is talked about – obviously and obsessively – in all the media; it wasn't that bad either considering that the country has emerged (or almost) from a pandemic crisis exhausted and exhausted; and it didn't go so badly even considering that the classic electoral campaign, made up of debates, confrontations and even clashes, has never been seen.
All the candidates, with a few exceptions, have worked hard for the minimum wage to disseminate their programs, while the outgoing president, even perhaps taken up with international assignments, dragged himself into the arena late and against his will, perhaps betrayed by the polls which gave him between 10 and 15 points ahead of his opponents for a long time.
What will happen now? Who will vote for whom?
Who will the losers side with?
Mélenchon has already said that not one vote should go to Marine Le Pen. But he did not recommend voting for Macron, leaving freedom of conscience to his constituents. That's already a good thing. Because not only the intellectuals left orphaned by the Socialist Party or the most radical young people vote for him, but also voters who are very close to the extreme right in terms of political programmes, paradoxically, they are quite similar.
Mélenchon for example is against NATO, like Marine Le Pen, and dreams of making France a non-aligned country; while in Europe he calls for negotiated protectionism for French industrial and agricultural products, something that can look a lot like a “Frexit”. Not to mention that he unites both fields a visceral hatred for Macron: everyone better than him.
Ma Macron intends to recover the entire field, right as well as left. In theory, on the left, in addition to the hypothetical ones of Mèlenchon, it can collect the votes of Fabien Roussel's communists, who are already promised; those of mayor Anne Hidalgo's socialists as well; also possible, but not sure those of the Green Yannick Jadot; while it is excluded that he will be able to recover those of the extremists Phlippe Poutou and Nathalie Artaud. Nothing very "heavy".
More interesting and close to Macron is the field ofto the right Moderate and Gaullist, the one disappointed by the candidate Valerie Pècresse whose program shares quite a few points with that of Macron, such as the obligation to work at least 15 hours a week for those who take the solidarity income; or attention to school and health care. Once the foam from the surf of immigration has been eliminated, which still today represents the most right-wing point of the Gaullists, unthinkable, among other things, when the arrival of a large wave of refugees from Ukraine is expected, Macron should have no problems at "assembler ”, to group, the most open part of the movement.
Meanwhile remains the favorite of large companies which, in the reference journal Les Echoshave repeatedly warned, through interventions by Confindustria, about the possibility that the far-right leader could win. On the other hand, Macron's watchword in this strange electoral campaign was “Nous Tous”, We all: that is, without an evident political color, according to the philosophy that has inspired his movement since its inception, “En marche! ”.
And Marine Le Pen? Who will it attract?
Certainly the votes of those who chose Eric Zèmmour, at the competition finished fourth, with 7%. And then? Are you sure that the moderate right doesn't let itself be carried away by the illusion of returning to power, albeit vassals? On the main television channels the commentators were divided, as at all latitudes. There are those who were not impressed by the result: Macron will also win in the second round, it is unthinkable that the leadership of France can be entrusted to someone like Marine Le Pen who imagines a country's exit from the Euro, from Europe, from NATO and who has never criticized Putin's invasion of Ukraine, not even in the face of the Bucha massacres.
But there are also those who have imagined the worst conjuring recent ghosts (Trump, for example) pointing out that when democracy gets tired of itself it lets happen what should never happen. Especially since the numbers (virtual of course) could be on Le Pen's side.
Having left the most evil mask of his movement to his comrade-opponent Eric Zémmour, left alone to represent "the France of the French", Marine Le Pen is no longer scary. She has carved out an image of "Woman of State", as she defines herself on her electoral flyers and is consequently preparing to convince even the most moderate of the right-wing front.
Fifteen days to go and then it will be clear where one of the most important countries in Europe will go. An eternity.
