The polls open in Great Britain, but all eyes are on the republican nationalists of the Sinn Féin, led by Michelle O'Neill, in Northern Ireland who for the first time in a century are in pole position to win in today's elections, Thursday 5 May, overtaking the Protestant Unionists of the Democratic Unionist Party (Dup) for the first time.
The polls will go to renew the decentralized parliament, born following the Good Friday Peace Accords signed in Belfast in 1998, which marked the end of 30 years of violence and bloodshed. The right-wing Protestant political party has traditionally occupied the lead seat in the chamber that makes laws in areas such as health, education and justice. In February, unionists brought down the last executive to oppose the Northern Ireland protocol which effectively created a post-Brexit border in the Irish Sea.
With Sinn Féin aiming for union with the Irish republic - even if a referendum is not yet part of the agenda - and the Unionist party - aiming for Great Britain - this election looks set to revive major tensions in the country. Polls have highlighted the race of Catholics for control of Parliament, attributing 26% of the preferences to Sinn Féin, against 19% for the Dup. Should the results prove them right, Ireland will face a historic turning point.
The elections in the UK and the turning point in Northern Ireland
Under the 1998 agreement Sinn Féin and the Dup are obliged to govern together in Belfast, with the prime minister from one party getting the most votes and the deputy prime minister from the other. But the right has made it clear that it does not want to enter into any more power-sharing deals, only if the Northern Ireland Protocol be revised in the part of the agreement between Brussels and London that regulates Belfast's customs trade with the rest of Britain post-Brexit.
The protocol requires that there is no return to a "physical" border between Éire and Northern Ireland, but in fact it has distanced the latter from the rest of the United Kingdom, given its permanence both in the European common market and in the customs union. This is unsustainable for the unionists, as this situation questions territorial continuity with the UK, causing great divisions within the Dup, which has lost much support within the party, leading to the resignations of the last two leaders.
However, negotiations on the protocol between British and European diplomats have stalled. According to some rumors, the British government is considering unilaterally breaking the parts of the agreement it does not like, despite the warning from the EU that this would mean a violation of the agreements signed by Boris Johnson himself, overwhelmed by the party gate storm.
The election puts pressure on BoJo
Local elections in the UK will be held in Scotlandin Wales and in parts of England, where will they be up for grabs more than 6 thousand seats and which could mark the political terminus of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Since the last local elections were held in 2018, the political landscape has changed, with both the Labor and Conservative parties replacing their British leaders, while all have been affected by the pandemic, Russia's war on Ukraine and the crisis of the cost of living.
At stake is the unity of the United Kingdom. In Scotland, where the victory of the nationalist party SNP is expected, the request for a second referendum for independence will be inevitable, given that together with Northern Ireland it is the one that has least digested the divorce from the European Union. But the bigger game is the elections in Northern Ireland, the weak point of the post-Brexit situation, and a cause of internal tensions and with the EU.
According to the latest opinion polls, in fact, they see the Democratic Unionist Party at a disadvantage compared to the Irish nationalists of Sinn Fein, attributing respectively 19 and 26 percent of the preferences to the two formations. A scenario that would put further pressure on Downing Street, which is already grappling with plans Scotland's independence activists.
Winds of Ireland: the nationalists to victory
If the victory of the nationalists has become so concrete, there are several factors that have contributed. First of all, Sinn Féin has known how to reinvent itself, distancing itself from the more divisive themes of the political debate, when it was associated with the separatist terrorist group IRA, the Irish revolutionary army among the protagonists of the so-called Troubles, of which it was seen as a kind of parliamentary consideration. Another important reason is the great loss of consensus of the unionists of the Dup, linked above all to Brexit and intnesificatasi with the high cost of living and the scandal of the party-gate of the British prime minister.
If a few months ago Northern Ireland celebrated a century of belonging to the United Kingdom, with the victory of Sinn Fein, it certainly won't celebrate another hundred years, but perhaps not even another decade.
