Now forty-eight hours before the German federal elections, neither of the two traditional camps seems to have the necessary majority to govern between now and 2017. Both the Christian-liberal coalition between the CDU/CSU (38%) and the FDP (6%), and the red-green between SPD (28%) and Grune (8%) are far from having an absolute majority. Not even the eventual and by no means obvious contribution of Die Linke, the extreme left, (9%) would be sufficient to give life to a progressive brand executive. The risk looming on the horizon is therefore that of a blocked Bundestag, in which the only possible alliances will be emergency ones, i.e. a grand coalition between Christian Democrats, Christian Socialists and Social Democrats, on the model of the one that governed Germany's fortunes between 2005 and 2009. Otherwise, if the negotiations with the SPD fail, it is possible that Mrs Merkel will also want to enter into negotiations with the ecologists. Everything suggests that the hypothesis of a new Große Koalition is the most probable.
Almost 60% of voters prefer it. As reported by the German press in the last few days, the post-election period and the cards to be played are already being worked on in the Social Democratic headquarters in Berlin. The Social Democrats will try to up the ante as much as possible, trying not to indulge the Chancellor right away and take away the main government posts from her. Given the difficulty of the negotiations, it is possible that the new government has not yet taken office before November. Until then, Mrs Merkel will remain in office. If the Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD) party were to enter the Bundestag too (in the latest poll it is given precisely 5 percent), the balance of power between the two sides would be further watered down. The Christian-liberal tandem has so far rejected any so-called coalition proposal. Bahamas, with the colors of the Caribbean country (black-yellow-blue), corresponding to those of the three parties.
Governing with those who want to raze Mrs Merkel's bailout policy doesn't actually seem plausible even for the Chancellor, traditionally open to discussing alliances with any political formation. The other day, however, the Christian Democrat governor of Hesse, Volker Bouffier, let it slip that, in his view, no type of coalition would really be excluded a priori, unleashing a wave of controversy inside and outside the Christian Democratic Union. Gaffes aside, the Alternative seems destined to remain in opposition to a grand coalition led by Angela Merkel without a shadow of a doubt.
