"Germany has become less predictable and the markets should take this into account”. The immediate opinion of State Street strategist Elliot Hertov had immediate confirmation on the currency front: this morning the euro traded at 1,193 against the dollar, down from the maximum values of the month (1,2095). In particular, "the success of Alternative for Germany (AfD), the far-right populist party – continues the analysis – has changed the cards on the table, eliminating the traditional government coalition options. Angela Merkel is now experiencing for the first time in German history a coalition formed by three political forces (not counting the Bavarian Christian Social Union - CSU) and this will require more coordination and more negotiations "before giving life to the probable" government of Jamaica".
“I'm sure we'll make it,” she said the Chancellor, which recorded a deadweight loss of nine points compared to the previous vote, much higher than expected. But the advance of the far right, the AfD, which rose to fourth place with 13,2%, has distorted the political horizon of the key country of Europe. From today the EU will have to deal with a more Eurosceptic Germany and more hostile to the policy of Mario Draghi, one of the main "culprits" of the defeat according to Wolfgang Schaeuble. The president of the ECB today will have the opportunity to reiterate his monetary policy choices in the hearing in the European Parliament.
La descent of the euro favors sterling and the dollar this morning, also recovering against the yen. The Tokyo Stock Exchange benefited from this (+0,6%), driven by good data on the trend of manufacturing activity. Instead, Shanghai (-0,3%) and Hong Kong (-0,8%) slowed down, both due to the downgrade of the rating decided by S&P and to the tightening on real estate credit decided by the authorities in many cities. The Korean Kospi is also down (-0,4%).
The agenda in the week of the central bankers. Moody's, with the Stock Exchange closed, cut the United Kingdom to Aa2 on Friday (in 2013 London could boast of the triple A). It will certainly be discussed on Thursday, on the occasion of the London meeting dedicated to the independence of the central bank, twenty years after the divorce with the Exchequer. Mark Carney, Fed Deputy Stanley Fischer and Mario Draghi will speak.
The most awaited appointment on the Fed front will be Janet Yellen's first speech after the announcement of the start of the reduction of the bank's balance sheet. The Fed Chair is due to speak in Ohio on Tuesday on "Growth Outlook: Reviewing Fundamentals." But in addition to Miss Yellen, 10 other members of the central bank (including 5 from the FOMC) will speak.
Eyes also on the summit of Tallinn, where the EU heads of state and government will discuss the issue of the web tax, after last week the European Commission presented a communication in which it sets out the options on the table and the different possibilities. The goal is to finalize a common position by the December Ecofin meeting to be presented to the OECD.
From today in Turin the works of the G7 dedicated to Industry, Science and Work.
On the business front, Europe is preparing for a major cross-border operation: tomorrow the Board of Alsthom expected to approve the purchase of the railway assets of Siemens, in exchange for the transfer of a significant share of the capital to the German group, which will become the first shareholder of the new hub. In the US today the merger between Sprint and T Mobile could be announced.
Mark Zuckerberg announced his intention to sell between 35 and 75 million Facebook shares in the next 18 months to benefit the Chan Zuckerberg Foundation, the charity founded with his wife.
Once the last major electoral challenge of 2017, the German one, has concluded, the Eurozone is about to enter the halfway point of the first months of the year with a ranking that very few would have predicted in January: Business Square, with an increase of 17,1%, is firmly in the lead, ahead of +9,7% by Frankfurt and at +8,6% of Paris.
The performance is celebrated by the confirmation of the update note al Economics and Finance document, approved on Friday by the Council of Ministers: the new text significantly revises upwards the forecasts formulated in April and estimates GDP growth of 2017% for 1,5. Public debt in 2017 is set to fall for the first time. From 132% of GDP estimated by Istat for 2016, it will rise to 131,6% in 2017 and 129,9% in 2018.
In this setting they open with a note of optimism Treasury auctions end of the month. We start tomorrow with the offer of 6 billion 12-month BOTs against 6,5 billion maturing. Tonight the Treasury will communicate the characteristics of the medium-long term issues to be placed on Wednesday.
In Piazza Affari the attention will still be focused on Fiat Chrysler after Friday's rally driven by new rumors about a possible merger with the Korean Hyundai. The AutoGuide.com site has relaunched the rumors, already circulated last August by AsiaNews and the Korean Times, about a possible acquisition of Fiat Chrysler by the Hyundai-Kia group, which it has denied. If true, it would create the world's leading car maker, outnumbering Toyota and Volkswagen in the number of vehicles sold. In 2016, Hyundai sold 7,8 million vehicles and FCA 11,5 million. Hyundai, as mentioned, denied this, but it was still the 17th session of increases in the last 18 trading days.
Meanwhile, the wait for the summit on Wednesday in Lyon on Fincantieri-Stx. Paris seems willing to leave the majority to the Trieste company, but a more complex design is looming which also involves the defence, i.e. the Naval group and the parent company Thales together with Leonardo for the Italian component. But to avoid the overwhelming French power it will be necessary to identify the necessary corrective measures.
Decisive days are also coming for Tim. Today the committee on the Golden Power is meeting. An appointment that inevitably intertwines with the board scheduled for Thursday from which decisions on governance should emerge with the indication of the new managing director. But everything or a lot depends on any decisions that the government should take precisely on the exercise of the Golden Power.
The agenda of Piazza Affari today provides for the grouping of the ordinary and special category shares of the Sole 24 Ore. The Unieuro dividend (1 euro) is paid. The quarterly reports of Csp International, Zucchi and Safe bag are scheduled.
