Between 23 and 26 May, 360 million European citizens, residing in 28 different states, are called to vote in the context of the elections to elect the European Parliament. It is a question of electing 751 representatives in all, divided among the various Member States in proportion to the inhabitants. Italy will elect 73, as many as the United Kingdom, which after a thousand vicissitudes will participate in the vote despite the (perhaps) imminent Brexit. Only two countries will have more: Germany with 94 MEPs and France with 74.
For many it is not easy to understand the importance of these elections, also because often and willingly the functioning mechanisms of the Union are difficult to understand "from a distance". Well, those who have not yet decided whether to vote or not must take into consideration a fundamental point: these elections will determine the future face of the European Union and, in some ways, its very survival.
In fact, compared to the vote five years ago, the community political landscape, traditionally led by popular and socialists, has changed radically with the advance across the continent of populist and sovereignist parties that aim to undermine the current status quo and to modify the European order created in the last three decades.
“The European elections of 23-26 May – comment the analysts of Invesco – will probably reflect the national politics of the Member States. So in general, a weakening of the traditional moderate parties, greater fragmentation between parties and benefits for nationalist and populist movements. The participation of the UK will probably represent an additional complexity for both Brexit and the EU”. It should be emphasized that, if and when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, its seats will be distributed proportionally to the other member states. Italy will have 3.
But before thinking about the repercussions it is essential to understand not only what the European Parliament does, but also how the Italian parties will position themselves within it and on which political groups the Strasbourg assembly stands.
ELECTIONS: WHAT THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT DOES
The European Parliament is the only EU institution to be directly – every 5 years – by the citizens. Together with the Council of the European Union, it has legislative power and exercises democratic control over the other EU institutions. In addition to adopting EU legislation on the basis of the Commission's proposals and revising the latter's work programme, it is the body which decides on international agreements and which expresses itself, together with the EU Council, on the Community budget.
Another fundamental task of Parliament is to elect the President of the European Commission appointed by the Council on the basis of a mechanism known as Spitzenkandidat (German for "main candidate"). Finally, he is called to approve the commission itself and can force it to resign with a motion of censure.
ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN PARTIES IN PARLIAMENT
The Italian representatives will be elected to the European Parliament in the 5 constituencies of the country on the basis of a proportional mechanism. Once they become MEPs, their place in the parliamentary assembly will not be determined by nationality. Each Italian party will choose a European political group to belong to.
To date there are 8 European maxi-parties present in the Community Parliament:
- European People's Party (EPP),
- Progressive Alliance of Socialists (S&D/PES),
- European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR),
- Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE),
- European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL),
- Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA group),
- Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD),
- Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF).
Based on the results of the 2014 European elections, over the last 5 years the majority group was that of the EPP with 219 MEPs. S&D was instead able to count on 189 representatives, Alde on 68. These three parties together formed the majority that supported the work of the President, Antonio Tajani.
ECR (71 MEPs), Green-EFA (52), EUL/NGL (51), EFDD (45) and ENF (36) were instead the opposition groups to which the 20 MEPs not affiliated to any political group also belonged.
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ELECTIONS: ITALIAN PARTIES IN EUROPEAN MAXI PARTIES
How are the Italian parties placed within these maxi groups? In this last legislature Forza Italia has joined the European People's Party (EPP), a pro-European and centre-right group, together with other major parties of the same orientation such as the German Christian Democratic Union (Angela Merkel's party, to be clear), the French Republicans, the Spanish People's Party.
The PD is instead part of the European Socialist Group (S&D): progressive, pro-European, he represents the Community centre-left. It also includes the German Social Democrats, the Spanish Socialists, the British Labor Party.
Let's move on to the two parties in government, which will maintain different positions on the European chessboard. The League of Matteo Salvini, together with Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (France), Alternative für Deutschland (AFD, Germany), FPÖ (Austria), Partij voor de vrijheid (Netherlands) launched the "Common Sense Manifesto" of the parliamentary group just over a month ago “European Alliance of Nations and Freedoms” (EAPN). It is a group that includes sovereign parties, Eurosceptics who are calling for an exit from the Euro and for the modification of the treaties concerning immigration. But be careful, because despite the will expressed by Salvini and Le Pen, the group will not be able to unite all the European sovereign parties. In fact, there won't be any inside it the representatives of the Visegrad countries, which will be divided among the other Eurogroups: Fidesz Orban should remain in the EPP, although Merkel has declared that she wants to "kick him out", while PiS (law and justice), the party that has governed Poland since 2015, led by shadow leader Jarosław Kaczyński, should opt for the conservatives of the ERC.
Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) is the European group to which MEPs officially belong Movement 5 Stars. It is made up of parties that oppose the bureaucratic centralism of the European Union and is led by Nigel Farage, a Eurosceptic and considered one of the main architects of Brexit. The pentastellati have openly declared that they will look for new allies in Europe to be able to create a new independent group. However, to date, the search for new allies would not have yielded excellent results, even if there is talk of a possible alliance with the Polish anti-abortion and homophobic extremist Kukiz'15, led by Pawel Kukiz, the anti-Euro and anti-NATO Croatians of Zivi Zid, led by Ivan Sinčić, the Greek Akkel party.
Speaking of parties around the threshold (set at 4%) Brothers of Italy, which to date has no members in the European Parliament, has announced its membership of the Eurosceptic and anti-federalist group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which also includes the British Tories, the Polish sovereigntists of Pis and the Dutch ultra-right party Fvp , while ALDE, a pro-European, liberal group in favor of greater economic integration, will join + Europe, Together with Working by Emmanuel Macron. It should be emphasized that ALDE has indicated Emma Bonino among the names for the future European Commission.
The left, if it overcomes the barrier, it will go to the European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) group, while the Verdi will join the Green Party.
ELECTIONS: CANDIDATES FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION
As mentioned, it is up to the European Parliament to choose the new president of the European Commission. Each group has already indicated its candidates for the presidency of the European Commission. The names are: the German Manfred weber for the EPP, Ska Keller e Lower Eickhout for Greens/EFA, Frans Timmermans for S&D, Jan Zahradil for ECRs, Violeta Tomich e Nico Cué for the GUE/NGL, while instead for the ALDE a Team called "TeamEurope" was chosen, made up of Guy Verhofstadt, Emma Bonino, Nicola Beer, Violeta Bulc, Katalina Cseh, Luis Garicano and Margrethe Vestager.
EUROPEAN ELECTIONS: THE LATEST POLLS
The Parliament's Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, in collaboration with Kantar Public, allocated possible seats, calculated on the basis of polls of voting intentions from each member state and existing political groups in the Parliament.
“As it is not possible to predict the future number and composition of the political groups in the Parliament, these projections on the composition of the next European Parliament are based on the structure of the outgoing Parliament and should be seen as a snapshot of the current political situation represented in the intentions of vote”, specifies the European body.
Nevertheless, according to these projections: EPP would get 180 (39 less than in 2019), S&D 149 (from 189), ALDE (76). Followed by: ECR (66), ENF (62) Green/EFA (57), GUE/NGL (46), EFDD (45).
Therefore, the "traditional" groups (EPP and S&D) may need the liberals of ALDE to obtain a majority.
“Even if nationalists gain space in the European Parliament, radical change is unlikely. Most of the EU's political authority and responsibility rests with national governments, which must maintain the status quo. They cannot pursue full federalization – despite its importance for the survival of the euro – given growing internal nationalisms. And likewise, they must support the euro, given its importance to economic stability and economic prosperity,” predict Invesco analysts.
"So long as the anti-federalists will have more space in Parliament and the nationalists/populists are on the rise In the Member States, policy harmonization could face insurmountable resistance in politically sensitive areas, such as social security, the labor market and corporate governance. There is a greater likelihood of progress in more technical areas. As a result, national differences are likely to be sustained regarding business investment and operating conditions,” they conclude.
