The political elections confirm Angela Merkel to lead Germany for the fourth time but rock the German political scene, they do skip the Grand Coalition between the centrists of the CDU-CUS and the social democrats of the SPD, open up the problem of difficult governance, shift the political axis to the right and they throw a worrying signal to all of Europe, Including Italy.
The latest official projections speak for themselves:
1) the CDU-CSU Union which supports Merkel is confirmed as the first party with 33% of the votes but loses about a million votes retreating by 8,6%;
2) the collapse of Schulz's SPD was also conspicuous and decisive, taking only 20,5% with a loss of 4,9% which pushes the opposition Social Democrats;
3) sensational the triumph of the ultra-right of the Afd which receives 12,6% of the votes with a leap forward of 8,3% which allows it to become the third political force of Germany and to return to Parliament;
4) the result is also good Liberals of the FDP who collect 10,4% of the votes with a growth of 5,6% which pave the way for them to return to the Bundestag and towards the new government;
5) also on the rise Verdi who take 9% of the votes with an increase of 0,6% which strengthens them in the probable government negotiations;
6) also improves the far left of the The Left which collects 9% with an advance of 0,4%.
At present the distribution of seats parliamentarians should be as follows: 238 to Cdu-Csu, 148 to Spd, 95 to Afd, 78 to Liberals, 66 to Linke and 65 to Greens.
"I expected a better result” Merkel immediately commented bluntly, who promised to recover the votes that went to the extreme right by trying to understand the fears about immigration that have pushed the electorate towards the Afd and launched a heartfelt appeal to Social Democrats who have decided to go over to the opposition: "Think again".
Anything can happen, but it is unlikely that Schultz's SPD, which experienced one of the most bitter days in its history yesterday, will be able to retrace its steps and remain in the Grand coalition that has governed Germany in recent years.
Therefore, if the Social Democrats leave the government, Merkel will have to make a virtue of necessity and try to form theJamaica coalition, so-called for the variety of colors of the political forces that should include it: CDU-CSU, Liberals and Greens. But it won't be easy, because the initial gap between the three parties on programmatic content is considerable. The Greens have already put their hands forward by saying they will only do what they agree, without any discounts. But for the Chancellor the most difficult negotiations will be with the Liberals, which are no longer those of former Foreign Minister Gensher but they have moved sharply to the right on economic policy, immigration and policies for Europe. The Liberals claimed responsibility during the electoral campaign the very armchair of Finance Minister Schaeuble and this will certainly be one of the thorniest knots in the negotiations to form the new government.
The weakening of Merkel and the triumph of the ultra-right are a bad sign for Europe where the foreseeable tightening of the new German government on economic and immigration policy risks to immediately complicate the future of the new Europe construction site which was opened with the election of Emmanuel Macron at the helm of France and the relaunch of the Franco-German axis with the possible participation of Italy and Spain. They will become the positions of the Bundesbank are also stronger who has never appreciated Mario Draghi's ECB quantitative easing and who has long wondered about the reasons why the wealth of Italian families has grown more than that of German families.
For Italy, the German vote is not a good sign, not only for the success of the ultra-right but above all for the effects on the new government in Berlin, which the exit of the Social Democrats and the entry of Liberals and Greens cannot fail to have. Effects that will also be felt on our electoral campaign where the populist axis made up of Di Maio's Five Stars and Salvini's League risks, if not openly opposed, of doing new damage.
AFD BREAKS
“We will oppose it in parliament and it will be a heavy task, but our ambition is to go to government in 2021”. This was stated by Frauke Petry, federal co-spokesperson for the AfD, during the press conference in Berlin. "I will not be part of the AfD group in parliament," Petry added before leaving the room, even before answering questions from journalists. In recent months there have been divisions between Petry and the other leaders of the party which enters parliament with 13% of the votes.
“It is a pity that a talent like Petry takes this decision”, replies Alice Weidel, candidate for the Afd chancellery. After all, Weidel continued at the press conference, if the AfD has gone from polls that gave it 6% to the current result of 13%, the greatest credit goes to Alexander Gauland. “I'd like Frauke Petry to talk to us,” Weidel continued. "We haven't been able to talk to each other for months."
Thus, the stormy relationship between the federal co-spokesperson Petry and the new guard of the party, represented by the two candidates for chancellery Weidel and Gauland, ends with a public rupture. The other federal spokesman, Joerg Meuthen, who was present at the press conference, apologized to journalists for his colleague's behaviour: "I'm sorry, it wasn't agreed".
