For 72% of French people, as reported by analysts of the Jean Jaurès Foundation, one of the most accredited think tanks in the country, Emmanuel Macron will be re-elected president on April 24th.
And this, which should be good news for the playing field of the incumbent leader, instead worries his supporters greatly. For what reason? Why the game seems over from the start and therefore the French may not find it any use to go and vote. And when the polls are deserted, nasty surprises are around the corner, as happened in 2002 when Lionel Jospin, the socialist leader taken for granted as Jacques Chirac's antagonist, was expelled in the first round, letting the head of the extreme move to the second. right Jean-Marie Le Pen. And there too it was the abstentions, the highest ever in the history of the presidential elections, 28%. This time the polls go even further by registering 67% vote participation: one French out of three would stay at home, as revealed by the daily barometer of Le Parisien, created by the Ipsos-Soprasteria research centres.
Elections France 2022: the war overshadows the electoral campaign
The truth is that the war unleashed by Russia on Ukraine, in addition to the economic and humanitarian disaster it has caused, has turned the political life of every country upside down, upsetting all agendas. Thus France, which on Sunday 10 April faces the first of the two most important appointments for the country, the elections for the President of the Republic, has entered into election campaign only in the last few days, groping and clouded by images of the destruction of human lives and entire cities that come from the heart of Europe.
Macron himself allowed himself to the public, in a large popular meeting in Dijon, only last weekend. While only for today, Saturday 2 April, eight days before the first round, he announced a meeting in Paris, at La Defense, which macronists promise will be "a moment of great enthusiasm", with an "American-inspired happening, like the Super Bowl ”.
They say that Macron would have gladly done without it, but he understood that the "en surplomb" campaign, too much from above, could not continue, and that the body of the candidate must also take the field. Hence the foot on the accelerator.
Elections France 2022: abstention, undecided and reforms
It will be enough? The analysts' doubts are strong. Jérome Jaffré, director of the Center for Studies and Knowledge of Public Opinion (Cecop), for example, when speaking of it in an interview with Le Figaro, proved to be skeptical. “The breakdown of trust between citizens and the vote has already occurred in the municipal and regional ones. He would like to say that now it's also up to the presidential elections. The certain thing is that such a high abstention, if it represents an electoral risk for Marine Le Pen, because its base is the most volatile, for Macron it would be much more than this, it would be a political risk, because a strong abstention would mutilate his ability to reform the country".
And yet one is more optimistic if one reads them the surveys proposed by Le Monde which avails itself not only of Ispos-Soprasteria but also of the collaboration of the aforementioned Jean Jaurès Foundation and of the prestigious Cevipof, the best-known center for political research. The numbers also delve deeper the role of the undecided and adding up the various segments - the probable, the potential and the almost certain - we arrive at a good 26% of people who could eventually go to the polls, restoring the presidential vote to the popular honors it has enjoyed in the past. Fingers crossed for the French.
As for the result of the first round, Macron is given 27,5%, that is, it would exceed that of 2017 by four points, not bad if you think of the turbulence that the young president went through in the five-year journey of government: from the social crisis of the yellow vests, to the pandemic and now the war.
The main strength of the candidate of En Marche! – according to the researchers – it comes from coherence between him, his constituents and the political moment. Those who choose it belong to optimistic France, those who are satisfied with their lives. They are convinced that he has "the makings of a President of the Republic", but that he is also "likeable" not to mention that in the face of war he behaved like a "real boss".
Macron favorite, who are the challengers?
And the other protagonists? Meanwhile, there are 12 candidates, but only 3 of them exceed 15% of the votes in the polls: the outgoing president Macron, as mentioned; the far-right antagonist Marine Le Pen, (18,5%); and the extreme left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, (15,5%). The latter was the subject of research by Goldman Sachs, one of the largest American investment banks, according to which it could be the surprise of these elections. Analyzing the polls, these researchers have even advanced the hypothesis that Mélenchon could overtake Marine Le Pen and reach the second round because the momentum of his supporters is greater than that of the far-right candidate.
Three sensitive issues: pensions, teachers and solidarity income
As for the themes of the campaign, three were perceived by the electorate as the most sensitive, and they were all dictated by Macron in his candidacy speech: pension reform, revision of the rules for obtaining solidarity income, relaunching of schools with prizes for deserving teachers. All three strongly criticized both on the right and on the left. Pensions: today the French retire from work at 62, Macron proposes leaving at 65; the solidarity income (Revenu de Solidarité Active), like the basic income in Italy, is granted without asking for anything in return; the president's proposal is to grant it only if you work at least 15/20 hours a week; school: 12 billion planned for development, 6 of which to be allocated to teachers who work harder and better.
None of these three proposals was liked by the interested parties and perhaps there is no need to explain why given that even in our latitudes we have had, and still have, more or less the same problems.
