Making a prediction on the vote of Italians for the European elections is truly an adventurous exercise. And even the polls (the published ones and the non-publishable ones, which differ very little from each other) don't help that much. This is for three reasons. The first is the difficulty of understanding what weight citizens' participation in the vote will have. Unlike other occasions for the European elections, voting takes place in just one day, and overall participation in Europe is always quite low. It does not exceed, on average for all the countries concerned, 45 per cent. Therefore, polls are unlikely to take due account of this uncertainty.
The second reason is that this time in Italy there are many lists in the field, so much so that even the modest road that our political system had taken in the direction of bipolarism, seems to have given way to a revived accentuated fragmentation. The third and last but not least reason for the pollsters' difficulties is the fact that at least a quarter of Italians decide whether and for whom to vote only in the 48 hours preceding the opening of polling stations.
And so to understand something, all that remains is to rely on the impressions of an electoral campaign that certainly was not among the most edifying in the history of the country, marked as it was by threats (including shotgun), bad words from the stadium and so on. The impressions can be summed up in a clearly recovering Pd, reinvigorated by the great work of its secretary and prime minister, Matteo Renzi, in a 5-star movement on the attack, determined, whatever the cost, to overcome the already excellent result of the policies and in a PDL, in clear trouble despite the generosity (?) with which Berlusconi has decided to remain in the field to lead the electoral campaign, as a single man in charge, in spite of diasporas within his party, of sentences passed in judged, and of his forfeiture by Parliament. Difficult to translate these impressions into numbers. Certainly if the Democratic Party went above 30 percent Renzi could be proud of it. Just as Casaleggio and Grillo should be satisfied if they manage to stay on the sidelines, perhaps confirming and expanding the results of the policies. As for Berlusconi, he himself has shown great concern, stating that it would be a success to reach 20 percent. A very modest salvation quota.
So far the three major parties. Attention: Grillo and Berlusconi do not like to use the word party, and they define their own political formation as a "movement". Then there are the so-called minor formations that will fight to reach the salvation quota and exceed 4%. The Ncd of Angelino Alfano should do it, which, especially in the South, despite some judicial accidents, is putting a Forza Italia, very divided internally, in increasing difficulty. Salvini's League (Bossi was seen very little in the electoral campaign) could exceed the salvation quota, thanks to an electoral propaganda based entirely on the no Euro and no to immigration. Both without ifs and buts. As for the Brothers of Italy (Meloni La Russa) they could benefit from a Forza Italia that is increasingly en route. Above all, the centrist formations that try to take up the legacy of Civic Choice focus on content.
Many commentators in recent days have complained that Italy has been talked about more than Europe during the electoral campaign. That's true, but it's only weird up to a certain point. And let's not forget that the problem of Italy's relations with Europe is one of the most important parameters on which to evaluate government action. In other words: speaking of Italy we also speak of Europe and vice versa. And Renzi must be acknowledged for having resolved, at the beginning of the electoral campaign, one of the greatest anomalies of his party, finally placing his Democratic Party in his own right in the European Socialist Party, in strong harmony with Martin Schulz. As for other political forces of varying anti-euro intensity, it is clear that to explain their theses they have spoken both of Italy and of Europe.
How will the vote affect the stability of the Renzi government? If things go well for the Democratic Party, the premier will strengthen both in the party (which already appeared more cohesive during the election campaign) and in the government. And this is quite obvious, as is the prudence with which the Prime Minister has tried not to strictly tie the fate of his Executive to a possible electoral success. Certainly, however, it is possible that the path towards electoral reform and the overcoming of bicameralism will end up having to be updated, in the light of what will be the electoral results of Forza Italia (Berlusconi has said several times that the Nazarene agreements must be revisited) and the New Center Right of Alfano.
