From Forza Italia to the Democratic Party: Matteo Renzi he may have accomplished this prodigy by removing the communist bias from the consciences of centre-right voters. This is what theCattaneo Institute in an analysis of the results of the European.
“The presence of a new leader of the Democratic Party, of political and cultural extraction not attributable to tradition PCI_PDS_DS – writes the Bolognese Institute – he may have freed part of the forced electorate notoriously hostile to the «communist danger» periodically evoked by Berlusconi in the electoral campaigns of the last twenty years”.
The results are seen in the numbers. In Italy, voters are down, but the Democratic Party is growing both in percentage terms (+29% compared to the policies, +40% compared to the European elections in 2009) and in absolute values (2 and a half million more votes than a year ago) and becomes first party in all regions. On the other hand, the main rivals are down: the centre-right forces lose a total of 27% compared to the policies and more than half of the consensus on the European elections in 2009 (-54,5%), in absolute values there are over 2 million votes compared to 2013 and almost 7 million compared to 2009; Grillo on the other hand loses three million votes with respect to the policies and, more than the Pd, he probably pays the pledge to the Northern League recovering in the North-East and to the Tsipras grouping.
The success of the Democratic Party, Cattaneo observes again, is driven by the Renzi effect, but also by the expectation of political coherence with what was announced by the Government and by the presence of a new, young and dynamic ruling class, "which contained the effects of the challenge put forward by the 5-star Movement, a true competitor in the absence of the historic adversary «Berlusconi »".
On the minor parties front “the Salvini effect”, seems to have stopped, at least temporarily, the League's hemorrhage of consensus, especially in the reference area. The same goes for the more radical left which, thanks to the lists aggregated under the Tsipras acronym, has brought home a few votes passed in the grillina area in the latest policies. In Italy, however, voters drop and fall to 58,7% (-7,7% compared to 2009) and abstentions, according to Cattaneo, are to be found above all in the centre-right, i.e. in that "moderate electorate which has failed to find space in a highly polarized competition between Renzi's Democratic Party and the 5 Star Movement”. In the other large European countries, on the other hand, there is a small reversal of the trend: in France, voters reach 43,5% (+2,9% compared to 2009); in Germany 47,9% (+4,6%); in the United Kingdom 36% (+1,5%); in Spain 45% (1%). The reason is not very comforting: in fact, "the presence and success of Eurosceptic parties capable of channeling the protest" would act as a magnet towards the polls. In the other countries the percentages vary a lot: they range from the high peaks of Belgium, Luxembourg and Malta, where voting is compulsory, to the low ones of Eastern Europe.
The overall balance is not of great affection: “despite voting for the first time, albeit indirectly, voter interest has once again turned out to be extremely low for the candidate for the presidency of the European Commission. This often happens in "second-order" elections, where the mobilization of parties is less intense and the more apathetic voters stand by and watch.
