The data that emerge from the European vote are essentially two. The first is that only in two of the large countries of the Union have the parties in government won: in Italy, with Matteo Renzi as head of the executive for 80 days, it was a triumph; in Germany with Angela Merkel at the helm of the country for over a decade, a confirmation. The second is that Eurosceptic forces are advancing, on the right - such as Marine Le Pen's Front National which has become the leading party in France - and on the left - such as Alexis Tsipras' Syriza which wins 26,7% of the votes in Greece , four points ahead of Prime Minister Samaras' party. A similar result was also obtained in Great Britain, where Eurosceptics of Nigel Farage's UKIP reached 27,5%.
What consequences could the defeat of most of the parties in government and the strengthening of the Eurosceptics have for the future of the Union? There are many who argue that European economic policy will necessarily have to change pace, giving more room for growth. Also because, in Germany itself, an advocate of austerity politics, the polls delivered a very different electoral framework from the one outlined only a few months ago by the policies of September 2013.
The novelties of the German vote were essentially three. Firstly, the Union, formed by the CDU, Merkel's party, and the CSU, the Bavarian ally, remains the first German force with 35,4% of the votes, but, compared to the previous elections, loses two points and a half, due to the collapse (over 8%) recorded among the ranks of social Christians who conducted a Eurosceptic and unconvincing electoral campaign.
The Social Democrats, on the other hand, obtained the best result ever: with 6,5 percentage points more than in the previous elections, the SPD stands at 27,3%. A success of the entire party but, above all, personal success of Martin Schultz, candidate for the presidency of the European Commission for the family of socialists. Schultz also won by resorting to gimmicks such as "only by voting for the SPD can a German be sent to the Commission". An excess of nationalism, immediately retracted, but which must have caught on among that part of the electorate that still struggles to digest the absence of German-led European institutions and, above all, does not tolerate a European central bank in the hands of an Italian.
Finally, Alternative für Deutschland, the new formation of Bern Lucke, - professor of economics and strict member of the Evangelical Church (no TV, no car, no beer in public) - stands at 7%. A result considered very satisfactory for a political force created just under a year ago with the aim of no longer making German taxpayers pay "the bill for the good life in the countries of the South".
In the light of this new political set-up in Germany, what changes can we expect on European issues? Actually few. Let's see why.
Of course, Merkel will have to make more compromises with her allies and review the roles of government, which until now had assigned domestic politics to the Social Democrats (such as the introduction of the minimum wage, disliked by the CDU) and European politics to the Christian Democrats . Strengthened by the electoral consensus obtained, the SPD will want to have more space in Europe to support its vision of a "more supportive" Europe. At the same time, however, the chancellor will be forced to mediate to stem the advance of the AfD which, on the other hand, really doesn't want to hear any more about solidarity with countries in difficulty.
Therefore, Berlin's approach to European aid will hardly change from that of "solidarity conditional on responsibility", in other words, that of "homework". From this point of view, Angela Merkel will be able to count on the support of the president of the ECB, who has proved to be an excellent ally over the years. On the other hand, the SPD is also well aware that voters have rewarded the party's openness towards a "Europe of growth" but would strongly condemn the construction of a "Europe of blank checks", the so-called Transferunion.
Merkel's third ally will be Jean-Claude Juncker. The popular party was the one with the most votes and, thus, in good probability, the ex-premier of Luxembourg will become the new president of the European Commission, exactly as hoped for by the German chancellor. Junker declared in an interview in April that “lasting growth cannot be produced on the ruins of a constantly expanding public debt”.
