The first round of administrative elections shows the decline of almost all political forces and the growth of an increasingly important protagonist, abstentionism, especially in the North. The Cattaneo Institute of Bologna proposes an analysis of the data and compares the 2016 results with those of the 2011 municipal elections and the 2013 political elections. The result is that, in the end, everyone loses a bit.
The center-left loses 9 points compared to 2011 and recovers 1 on 2013. The center-right as a whole loses 7 points compared to 2011 and recovers 4 on 2013. The Movimento 5 Stelle gains almost 19 points on 2011, but the the advance is not as sensational as it seems, taking into account the fact that "it was not present in some sample municipalities"; in fact, he lost 3,6 percentage points compared to 2013. Moral: there is food for thought for everyone. The important cue, for a more in-depth examination, comes from abstentionism, from an anti-political sentiment that not even forces like the Lega and the 5 Star Movement are able to completely intercept.
The figure is heavy and affects above all the capitals of the North: the least participatory city is Trieste (53,4%, down by 3,3 compared to 2011), while at the opposite pole there is Benevento (78,5%, - 4,6 on 2011).
“The June 5 session – writes Cattaneo – comes after a long phase of electoral appointments, between 2013 and 2015, which saw a sharp decline in voters, who fell to 75% for political elections, below 60% for European and regional elections, passing through the sensational figure of 2014 in Emilia-Romagna and Calabria when about 4 out of 10 voters went to vote".
The signs of disaffection were all there this time too: "from the less political ones (the possible demobilization emphasized by the "long weekend" of 2 June) to the low profile of the electoral campaign in even important municipalities where the absence of national politicians (with the exception of some, for example Salvini)”.
However, there was also reason to think that things went differently: "The new variable, compared to the 2011 vote, was represented by the presence, in various local challenges, of anti-system or disruptive political options (the 5 Star Movement and , in some ways, also the Northern League) capable of significantly influencing not only the final result but also the voter turnout”. This was not the case or at least not completely and above all the North has turned its back on the polls. Among the big cities, the greatest drop in voters was recorded in Milan (-12,9), Bologna (-11,7) and Turin (-9,3).
Emilia-Romagna, traditionally a land of political commitment on the left, is among the most "absent". In this comparison, the drop in participation in the capitals of Emilia-Romagna is striking: in addition to Bologna, the decline in voters was well above the average of the other cities, also in Ravenna and Rimini (about -10 pp ). Therefore, the signs of strong disaffection sensationally expressed in 2014 and hitherto underestimated by official politics are confirmed in this region”.
For Cattaneo there are several reflections to make: the non-vote continues to grow; the threshold drops more and more, falling below 60%; participation slows down the fall in the medium-small towns of Southern Italy, while it enters a serious crisis in the big cities and in the North; in many centres, the traditional parties have been joined by the competitive presence of candidates from forces such as the 5 Star Movement or candidates, such as those of the Northern League, capable of breaking the coalition balance traditionally expressed up to now, but the positive result obtained it is not enough to slow down the progress of abstention.
“The ambiguity that these forces express all remain – concludes Cattaneo – we are in the presence of formations that are the bearers of new themes and that intend to renew traditional politics, but which at the same time feed an anti-political message of
radical contestation that voters end up absorbing and digesting even as a non-vote”.
