It often happens that polls and forecasters fall victim to false accusations and are not given due credit. But in this case, on the occasion of the first round of municipal elections, the institutes largely failed. For weeks a multitude of investigations have argued that a number of Socialist incumbent mayors have escaped suspicion nationally threatening the left thanks to their good personal image and their actions popular with citizens.
From Toulouse to Strasbourg, from Saint-Etienne to Lille, from Cannes to Angers, a large number of socialist mayors have fallen victim to this illusion. Almost everywhere in the country, socialist candidates in the big cities obtained results 6 to 9 points lower than opinion poll estimates. The biggest mistake seems to be related to Marseille. While the institutes put the socialist Patrick Mennucci next to Jean-Claude Gaudin, the minister Marie-Arlette Carlotti seemed ready to buy the third sector of the city, decisive, and ultimately, the left was humiliated by a National Front stronger than never.
In contrast to the overrated lists of the governmental left, the underrated lists of the far right were also notable. In Avignon, Beziers, Perpignan or Fréjus, the National Front scored 8-10 points more than expected.
If polling institutes have not properly measured the influence of the National Source, it is also because most voters are unwilling to openly declare their vote. And it is also true that opinion polls have no predictive value and that many voters make their choice at the last minute. Surprising is the record abstention rate achieved during the first round of municipal elections, which polls are still trying to measure accurately.
The failure of such institutions should encourage the media to question the use of polls. These are tools that are sometimes useful but often unsuccessful, which is why they should always be used with caution.
