The early elections for the renewal of the regional parliament of Catalonia have greatly complicated the political framework in the "industrial engine" of Spain. The consultations were called by Governor Artur Mas in the wake of a gigantic independence demonstration staged in Barcelona last September. Mas hoped to win an absolute majority of 68 seats with his moderate nationalist Convergencia i Uniò (CiU) party to be able to govern from a position of strength and undertake a tough confrontation with Madrid. Instead it collapsed instead from 62 seats to 50. Great result for the left-wing independence party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which went from 10 to 21 seats.
Mas's party still has a relative majority and will lead the government again, but it cannot be "solely responsible for the governance" of Catalonia, admitted the governor. The CiU leader confirmed what he said before the vote, namely that even without an absolute majority he wants to "go ahead" with the referendum consultation process on independence that the central government in Madrid denounces as unconstitutional. But he also admitted that to "lead a difficult process" such as that of independence "a strong government was needed, with an exceptional majority", which did not exist.
"It is clear that we have not obtained this exceptional majority, we are far below the results of two years ago", declared Mas, with a gloomy face, at the Magestic Hotel, where thousands of CiU militants had gathered yesterday evening . "We need to start a period of general reflection on Catalan politics, starting in the next few days", added Mas, inviting the other parties to "reflect, because the CIU does not have the sufficient strength to lead this path alone" towards self-determination. "The situation is more complicated, but that doesn't mean the country has to give up on its goals."
In an apparent offer of alliance to the Republican separatists, Mas said that the objectives of his new government must be the recovery of growth, employment and social spending: references, especially the last two, dear to the left, which have always reproached the CiU government for too many cuts in health care and education, in compliance with the austerity imposed by Madrid and Brussels.
Esquerra Republicana, through the mouth of its leader Oriol Junqueras, has shown itself conciliatory and ready to meet Mas's party. However, coexistence in the government of the two formations - which at the moment would seem the most probable hypothesis - does not promise to be easy.
CiU, the party of the centre-right entrepreneurial Catalan bourgeoisie, now appears to be increasingly divided between the more progressive and pro-independence current of Convergència, and the more conservative one of Uniò. The latter has never appreciated Mas's pro-independence turn and sees an alliance with Esquerra as smoke screens.
The Catalan socialists, a traditionally strong majority party in the city of Barcelona, have instead dropped to third place even if they limited the damage compared to the forecasts of the day before, losing 'only' 8 deputies against the feared 10. This party, a local branch of the Spanish PSOE, also appears divided and in difficulty: a small, more Catalanist wing would be in favor of the referendum but the majority of the party remains against it and is proposing a federal solution which, apparently, has not convinced the voters.
The serious economic crisis that has hit Spain has not spared Catalonia and has been reflected in the good results obtained by two other left-wing formations: the greens of Iniciativa-Verds (which went from 10 to 13 seats) and the anti-independence anti-capitalists of the Cup, entering for the first time the regional parliament with three seats. These parties are in favor of an independence referendum but have always been at loggerheads with CiU over social policies and promise to make Mas' life complicated in his second term.
Finally, the Partido popular (PP), an expression of the post-Franco right wing in Spain, strongly opposed to independence and traditionally a minority in Catalonia, remained the fourth political force in the region. If an alliance between CiU and the independentists of Esquerra were to quickly show its limits, the PP could try to take advantage of it to tempt the moderate nationalists of MAS with external support.
