Lula is ahead but fails to win in the first round and indeed, unlike what the polls predicted, which gave him an almost 15-point lead, he feels Bolsonaro breathing down his neck. This is the outcome of the first round of the presidential elections in Brazil: the leader of the left, former president from 2003 to 2011 and then overwhelmed by the well-known legal proceedings, closed around 48% (with 50%+1 he would have closed the game), equal to over 56 million votes, against Bolsonaro's 43,5%, i.e. just under 51 million.
Brazil elections, Lula collects 48% against Bolsonaro's 43,5%: the runoff will take place on October 30
The favorite therefore remains the leader of the Workers' Party, but yesterday's result for the outgoing president is still an acceptable and above all surprising result, given that on the eve of it he was accredited by just 36%. Instead between the two challengers dance just over 5 million votes, in a country of 156 million eligible voters: unlike what happened in Italy and regardless of how it will end, the first figure of this round is the sensational flop of the polls.
In the ballot on 30 October (in Brazil there are four weeks between the two rounds and not two) the votes of the other candidates and abstentions will therefore be decisive. In this sense, the fiasco of the centrist Ciro Gomes, who insisted on a "third pole" proposal, refusing to join the Lula's “very wide field”. (a coalition of 9 parties) to go it alone, ending however by being the fourth force in the field with only 3%, behind the candidate Simone Tebet, also in the moderate field, with 4,2%. Both candidates, while considering themselves independent, have never made a secret of having more affinity with Lula than with Bolsonaro, but it remains to be seen to what extent they will go too far to get their consensus together.
The figure for abstention is also interesting, over 20% (more or less the same as 4 years ago): a high figure if we consider that in Brazil voting is compulsory in the 18-70 age group, even if you can not go to the polling station with a valid justification or by paying a negligible fine, and 16-17 year olds, over 70 year olds and people without literacy are exempt from the obligation. A pool that is not as huge as the Italian one, but still within which to fish for the decisive votes between now and the end of the month.
Brazil elections: plebiscite for Bolsonaro in the South, but the North East does not betray Lula
As for the voting map, there weren't too many surprises: Bolsonaro held thanks to the plebiscite gathered in the south of the country, where a white and basically wealthy electorate resides. In that handful of states, the outgoing president gave his opponent nearly 20 points, closing 54% to 36%. And since counting is usually faster in the South, in the first official projections (in Brazil there is electronic voting) the sovereign leader even had the advantage.
Then Lula's reversal during the evening, with the scrutiny gradually up to the North-East, the historic electoral fiefdom of the former trade unionist, who has not betrayed this time either. The image of a divided and polarized country emerges from the first round: Lula is once again the protagonist despite the stigma of the sentence (later revoked) and prison, but also the narrative according to which the Brazilians could not wait to get rid of Bolsonaro has not found complete confirmation. And, as also in Italy, the centrist alternative has not worked.
Also worth mentioning the election of Sergio Moro, the former magistrate and great accuser of Lula in the maxi Lava Jato trial, as senator in Paranà, a state with a conservative traction: he obtained 33% of the votes, equal to almost 2 million votes. Moro some time ago, after having collaborated in the Bolsonaro government as a super consultant for Justice, had also toyed with the idea of running for president. He desisted, but his election as senator indicates that the season of Brazilian Mani Pulite is not yet behind us. And that Lula is ahead, but hasn't won yet.
