Le Spanish elections have closed without an “absolute winner”. With the Popular Party who gets the most votes but at the expense of the possible ally Vox, which halves its seats. The comeback of the socialists by outgoing prime minister Pedro Sanchez – despite polls and exit polls – is surprising but not enough: they need an alliance even with the minor political forces to prevail. And they are the Catalan separatists of Junts to hold the key to governance: without their contribution, we return to the polls. The hypothesis is further complicated by the fate of the Catalan leader himself, Carles Puigdemont, after the Supreme Court requested the arrest warrant, extended to former councilor Toni Comín. But if the Spanish political picture is uncertain and confused, two certainties emerge from these elections: nobody has reached the absolute majority of 176 seats necessary to govern alone and the Vox debacle which lost over 600 votes and 19 deputies compared to the 2019 policies. The question at this point is: what happens now in Spain? Analysts and politicians to make all kinds of calculations, at stake is not only the Spanish political future but also the balance in the next European Parliament. Even if Brussels can breathe a sigh of relief: with Madrid engaged in the presidency of the EU Council, the fear was for a possible entry of the sovereigns into the government. Now, however, it is feared that to break the stalemate we can go back to the polls. And with Puigdemont's arrest warrant, that's not such a remote hypothesis.
Elections in Spain, what happens now?
The facts are clear: the conservative People's Party (PP), led by Alberto Nunez Feijoo, won the elections and will have 136 seats (33%) in the Congress of Deputies. But it was the far-right formation Vox that betrayed him, losing support and dropping from 52 seats four years ago to 33 (12,4%). The Socialist Party (PSOE), led by the current prime minister Pedro Sanchez, obtained 122 seats (from 28% in 2019 to 31,7%). In fourth place then there is the left-wing coalition Sumar, led by Yolanda Diaz, which includes Podemos, with 31 seats. The ball now passes to King Felipe VI who will have to decide who to entrust first with the task of forming a new government: both Feijoo and Sanchez complain that they are ready to open negotiations to form a government.
Feijóo would have to count on Vox's seats, but they would not be enough to reach a majority without the progressive forces (it would reach 169 seats). The right could ask for a hand from the Coalición Canaria (CC), a nationalist party in the archipelago off the coast of Africa, and from the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (UPN), a historical ally of the PP in Navarre. More likely that Sánchez remains at the helm of the country: with the radical front, Sumar would reach 153 seats, but he must transform the abstention of the Basques and Esquerra Republicana and the Catalans, including Junts, into a yes to make it possible to relaunch a "Frankenstein" government coalition (with 179 deputies). But the Catalan separatists had dictated, to say the least, "stringent" conditions for a possible agreement. As explained by the general secretary of the party, Jordi Trull, there will be no support for Sanchez without "amnesty and self-determination for Catalonia". But it would be problematic for the socialist leader to agree to a future referendum for the independence of Catalonia with the PP and Vox ready to collect the votes of the malcontents.
To complicate everything the judicial storm involving the MEP and former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont and his councilor Comín for the secessionist attempt in 2017 and since then he has been wanted by the Iberian justice. The alleged crimes are "disobedience" and "aggravated embezzlement".
Spain towards early voting: the Puigdemont case
"One day you are decisive in forming a government in Spain, the next day Spain orders your arrest," wrote Puigdemont, leader of Junts, on Twitter, commenting on the decision of the Supreme Court, which asked the investigating judge Pablo Llarena to issue international arrest warrants against him and former minister Comin. The prosecutor's request comes after the EU court confirmed the law on 5 July waiver of parliamentary immunity which Puigdemont enjoyed, complying with a request from the judge in charge of the lawsuit in which the former governor is arraigned. So far Puigdemont has managed to avoid Spanish justice by mainly staying in Belgium. And precisely the possible predisposition of the Belgian justice to authorize his extradition is at the moment one of the main unknowns of the case.
Puigdemont can always appeal to the EU Court of Justice, which he intends to do; however, such a move would not cause the sentence to be suspended.
And what happens to Spain now? If neither Feijóo nor Sánchez achieves a majority in the next few months of negotiations, the return to the polls it is increasingly likely.
