The most feared electoral event of the year has arrived. At least in Europe. Sunday June 30th 50 million French people will be called to the polls for the first round of the French early elections convened by President Emmanuel Macron. The second round is scheduled for July 7th. The vote will serve to elect the new National Assembly, but the result could have very serious repercussions not only on the country, but also on the markets and on the political stability of the European Union, which not surprisingly has taken care to appoint the leaders of its institutions before the call to the polls in France.
According to polls, in fact, Paris will be waiting the so-called cohabitation with the Lower House belonging to one political color and the Elysée to another. The alternatives? Ggovernment of national unity or technical government. But why do we vote? How and what are the forecasts and possible scenarios? Here's everything you need to know about early elections in France.
Why Macron called early elections
The announcement came as a surprise, so unexpected that it left even the closest collaborators speechless. Last June 9, after the release of the exit polls of the European elections which foreshadowed the clear victory of the Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen and her protégé Jordan Bardella, the president of the French republic Emmanuel Macron has announced his intention to dissolve the National Assembly and to call early elections. “I cannot, at the end of this day, pretend that nothing happened. It is a serious, heavy decision, but it is also an act of trust in the French people,” the resident of the Elysée said on TV that evening.
Why did he do it? For Macron it was officially an acknowledgment of his electoral defeat, given that his “Besoin d'Europee” coalition stopped at 14% of the votes in the European elections, less than half of the 31% obtained by the Rassemblement National. However, many people spoke of a "chance" or a "bet", others instead approved the decision, saying that the president assumed his responsibilities despite the risks.
What do people vote for in France
Two years after the last legislative elections, on 30 June (first round) and 7 July (ballot) we vote for elect the 577 deputies of the National Assembly, the lower house which together with the Senate makes up the two branches of the French Parliament. In the French system, the term of office of the head of state is independent of the National Assembly, with the latter responsible for exercising legislative power, proposing, amending and voting on laws together with the Senate (but has broader powers) and to monitor government action. The Prime Minister, appointed by the head of state, should come from the political grouping that wins the elections.
How to vote in France
In France we vote with a double-round single-member majoritarian electoral system. Only one candidate is elected for each of the constituencies which, like the deputies, are 577.
To be elected to first round candidates need to obtain an absolute majority of votes cast and a number of votes equal to at least a quarter of registered voters. If no one gets an absolute majority in the first round, we go to run-off, where a relative majority is enough. However, there is a barrier: to access the second round, candidates must obtain at least 12,5% of the votes in the first round. Whoever also takes is elected just one vote more than the others.
When will the results arrive?
Both in the first and second rounds Polling stations will be open from 8am to 18pm in almost all of France. The exceptions are some areas such as Paris and Montpellier where voting will take place until 20pm.
The first estimates will then be released starting from 20pm on Sunday, when the polling stations close. The results of the 577 constituencies will be available during the evening.
The lineups on the field
After Italy, France also becomes tripolar. In fact, there are essentially three sides on the field. On the left we find the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance between the Socialist Party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise, the Greens and the Communist Party who have decided to "run together" to stop the advance of the far right.
At the center, squeezed between the two poles is the presidential majority by Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.
On the right we find the Rassemblement National of Le Pen and Bardella. And i Republicans? Split yourself. Some, led by the expelled president Eric Ciotti (a decision later annulled by the Paris Court), have decided to ally themselves with Le Pen. Others, however, will run alone.
What the polls say
The pre-election polls are essentially unanimous in predicting the probable victory of the National Gathering: Ipsos and Iofs give them at 36%, Harris Interactive at 37%. The alliance between the left instead it would be between 29 and 27 percent, while Macron's presidential majority would be between 21 and 19,5%.
France towards cohabitation: what it is and what the risks are
According to the polls, therefore, France is moving towards probable cohabitation, which occurs when the President of the Republic of a party is forced to appoint a Prime Minister (and therefore a government) of a different political orientation. In the history of the Fifth Republic It's already happened three other times: the first cohabitation (1986-1988) was between the socialist president François Mitterrand and the neo-Gaullist prime minister Jacques Chirac; the second (1993-1995) between Mitterrand and the neo-Gaullist prime minister Édouard Balladur; the third (1997-2002) between Jacques Chirac, this time as president, and the socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin. And many remember that, especially in the first case, the government managed to get laws passed that were indigestible to the president who could therefore find himself faced with difficulties that would be difficult to overcome, with a government and a parliamentary majority that were essentially hostile.
What happens if an absolute majority is not reached?
For the absolute majority they are necessary 289 seats out of 577 and the alliance that wins will also appoint the prime minister (appointed by the President of the Republic). If Le Pen's Rassemblement National wins, the new prime minister will be Jordan Bardella. With a victory for Macron's party, however, he would remain Gabriel Attal, while the left has yet to decide. However, there are other hypotheses. Given the three forces at play, the electorate could split and none of the three coalitions could achieve an absolute majority, stopping at the relevant one.
If it happens, Bardella has already made it known that he will refuse the position of prime minister. At that point a situation could occur ungovernable situation, given that Macron would no longer have the possibility to dissolve the National Assembly (according to the Constitution he has to wait a year). The options would therefore become three: a government of national unity made up of "who's there" (called in Italian) a technical government, or even a confirmation of the current one government in office only for current affairs. Throughout Europe, tension is very high and newspapers are warning: France could become "the new Italy".
