Elections in France, Sunday July 7 il second round of a legislative vote which, in the first round, it handed victory to the far right di Marine Le Pen e Jordan Bardella who, however, in view of the run-off, are looking for an absolute majority. And so now the political forces competing for the match find themselves in the trenches fighting seat by seat: the strategists of the French parties and coalitions have at their disposal until 18pm on Tuesday 2 July to finalize their plans and submit applications. Objective number one: to prevent the Rassemblement National of Le Pen and Bardella, together with Eric Ciotti which brought 4% to the Rn cause, can reach the magic number: 289, i.e. the seats necessary for an absolute majority.
French elections, desistance agreements to block the way for Rn
In short, the Rassemblement national is trying but the attempt at a 'barrage' implemented by the forces of the left and center to prevent the far right from conquering the National Assembly is starting to emerge more clearly. In the aftermath of the first round of the legislative elections in France, after the boom of the RN, the game is played in the constituencies where the candidates of the New Popular Front and the Macronist ones can find an agreement on the so-called desistance agreements.
Against the backdrop of tensions, the latest figures are: 172 candidates who came in third place and have already proclaimed their desistence in 306 'triangular' and in 5 'quadrangles'. This is the totality of the over 120 candidates of the left, who desist "always and everywhere", according to the dictates of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, so that not a single vote goes to the RN, of 50 of Ensemble and a Républicains candidate. Others remain standing 135 triangular. They are then 190 duels, the face-to-face matches in which the Rn starts almost everywhere in a position of strength.
French elections, absolute majority or not?
According to various projections, the far right could have obtained an absolute majority in the National Assembly – i 289 deputies mentioned above – in the absence of withdrawals. A hypothesis that seems to have been overcome by the agreements announced. However, in the event of partial withdrawals, the RN would come close to a majority without obtaining it, while with a total blockade (all parties except the far right), the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen could win 261 seats.
French elections, what are the triangular elections
To dramatically increase the number of triangular, which were only 8 in the last legislative elections of 2022 and even only one in 2017, was thesurge in turnout, reached altitude 66,71, almost 20% more than the last elections of deputies. The higher the number of voters, the higher the number of candidates who exceed the quota 12,5% necessary to qualify for the second round. The turnout also made it possible to promote 76 candidates to deputies already in the first round: 39 from the Rn, 31 from the New Popular Front, 2 from Ensemble, 2 from the 'Other right' lists, 1 from the Républicains and 1 from the Friends of Ciotti, who reached an agreement with Le Pen's party.
French elections, there are three possible scenarios
The possible scenarios at the moment are: three:, according to a simulation released by the magazine The Grand Continent: the first, safe absolute majority for the RN with around 300 deputies in the event of failure to desist in the triangular elections with Le Pen's party; The second one, Rn which is close to 289 and an absolute majority which would remain only 15 seats away in the case of desistance of only the left, with Ensemble which would gain around twenty deputies; the third, only a relative majority, even if consistent, for RN if the desistance strategy was common to all the other sides.
French elections, what political leaders are saying
“We must not make any mistakes, the far right is on the verge of gaining access to the highest positions in the state”, is the alarm raised by the French president, Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée in front of his ministers, in a meeting that the French media described as "tense". In the government and among the Macronists "there are disagreements on the line" to be taken, the newspapers report.
The leader of the RN, Jordan Bardella, in a letter to the French, launches an appeal "to make the choice of a responsible change". According to Bardella, who ignores Macron and engages in conflict with the New Popular Front personified by the number one of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Melenchon, the ballot will be a duel between the RN and the Popular Front: “The fate of France cannot be entrusted to these arsonists who adopt a strategy of permanent conflict,” he says.
The result of the first round in France worries the partners in Paris: "No one can remain indifferent if among our very close partners and best friends a party prevails that sees Europe as the problem and not the solution", said the German Foreign Minister , Annalena Baerbock. The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk he spoke of a "great danger" for France and Europe. No direct comment from Moscow, But the Kremlin he says he is following the elections in France "very closely".
