Kenya, Jamaica, traffic light. These are the extravagant names that could be assigned, on the basis of the "color" of the parties that will compose them, to the possible coalitions that will be formed in Germany after the federal elections, which are extremely uncertain and extremely open to different solutions in the birth of what it will be the first government since 2005 without Angela Merkel at the helm. Sunday 26th September 60 million Germans are called to the polls: half of the deputies will be elected in single-member constituencies and the other half on the basis of a proportional system with a barrier. After three decades of dominance by the Cdu, Frau Angela's party which in any case has never had the majority to govern alone, many things are about to change but it is now certain that it will be the Grosse Koalition once again: in the polls none of the candidates reaches 30 %, so it will probably take three parties (for the first time, not two) to reach a majority in the Bundestag.
This time though it will hardly be the CDU to express the Chancellor: Angela Merkel's successor at the helm of the conservative party, Armin Laschet, immediately proved to be a weak candidate and should reach around or not much above 20%, overtaken in recent weeks by the incredible rush of Olaf Scholz, the social democrat, former Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister in the outgoing executive, who literally resurrected the Spd bringing it to 25% and therefore in the lead, thanks to very explicit social promises, such as a minimum wage of 12 euros an hour. The expectations of the Verdi, even if their star has gradually faded: the Grunens were the heavy favorites until a few months ago, they govern in various cities and states and at the 2019 European Championships they exceeded 20%, but then the Annalena Baerbock-Robert Habeck ticket lost enamel, mainly due to some slip of hers, in truth also severely hit by the media for all in all venial oversights compared to the scandals that have invested, for example, the CDU itself, implicated in an investigation into the anti-Covid masks.
Although the Greens are still the favorite party of young people, who put climate change at the top of their priorities (according to a recent study, only 19% of 14-17 year olds in Germany consider the economy more important than the environment), over half of German voters are over 50 and therefore it is not surprising if the polls now give them around 17%, therefore in third place. However, enough to most likely enter the government coalition and it would be an historic first, a sign that the Germans will not choose entirely in continuity with Merkel: the Chancellor will be regretted but also with the desire to try something new. And perhaps to bring global issues such as the climate, geopolitical alliances, migrations onto the political agenda, with more determination than the solomonic and indisputable ability of the outgoing leader.
The most probable and most solid coalition would be “Kenya”: the reds of the SPD, the blacks of the CDU and precisely the Greens, like the flag of the African country. Combined, these three parties would have on paper more than 60% of the seats in the Bundestag. But there is also the possibility that Scholz, if victorious, will want to make a left turn and opt for the "traffic light" majority, i.e. replacing the CDU with the "yellows" of the FdP, the liberals led by Christian Lindner, also in big rise with about 12% in polls. Despite the differences on European policies (Lindner is a "hawk" and would like to immediately restore the Stability Pact), it seems that forming a government without the centre-right is the solution preferred by the Social Democrat leader himself, provided that he manages to get liberals and Greens to talk : in any case, a numerically strong majority would emerge, with almost 60% of the seats in Parliament.
Alternatively, here the “Jamaica” coalition: CDU, Verdi and FdP; black-green-yellow. But it seems unlikely as things stand that what should be the party with the most votes, the SPD, will remain completely out of government. Rather, Olaf Scholz in the event of an affirmation could replay the old card of the Rossoneri coalition, the one already dear to Merkel and made up of only two parties, CDU and Social Democrats. At the moment, given the state of the polls, however, they may not reach the majority of seats, or reach it too narrowly to govern stably. The coalition furthest to the left would instead be the red-green-red one, therefore flanking the SPD and the Greens a Die Linke, the leftmost party that supports anti-racism, gender advocacy, open borders and feminism. Its leader, Janine Wissler, has already sent signs of dialogue to Scholz and Baerbock, but in that case the obstacle is the 5% threshold: the polls show Die Linke on the edge, around 6%.
The last temptation could finally be to a more right-leaning government, the solution preferred by the Cdu and the FdP if they hadn't been surprised by the brilliant rise of the social democrats: in this case the reds of the SPD would have to bow to an alliance with the blacks of the Cdu and the yellows of the FdP, simply giving life to the majority "Germany", since these are precisely the colors of the German flag. The only certainty is that there will be no room for right-wing extremists Alternative for Germany, whose solidity is declining over time: however, polls still show them above 10%, which means the fifth party and therefore not enough to make claims.
